Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 290 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,781
  • Jul 8, 2015 6:40am Jul 8, 2015 6:40am
Quoting petropaka
But we are in a MN supply zone on GBP/CAD
Yes, Monthly supply on GBP/CAD, which is why it's a potential demand zone in the yellow area, it didn't consolidate away, so not valid yet (the yellow zone).

For an area to demand to be valid, we need it to make 2:1 imbalance and consolidate away at least 1 full OHCL candle, so it's not yet valid, which is why it was in yellow.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,782
  • Jul 9, 2015 3:01am Jul 9, 2015 3:01am
the markets and our lives.

Alfonso What an incredible amount of work you have done on this thread. Incredible and masterful. Congratulations.
  • #5,783
  • Jul 9, 2015 5:25am Jul 9, 2015 5:25am
Quoting panoramia
AUD/USD is breaking lower after a few months respecting 0.7500 mark. New Daily supply zones have been created. Lower one is a potential D1 Continuation Pattern. 3 months, monthly, weekly and daily charts are down, very bearish bias, moreover after a breakout Breakout is part of a Monthly and 3 months Continuation Pattern short, so a strong drop is expected Potential Daily supply if Weekly demand is taken out in yellow Similar scenarios happening on other AUD cross pairs like AUD/SGD and others. Similar but inverse on GBP/AUD Cheers, Alfonso {image}...
Hi Alfonso,

Why did you draw the middle Supply Zone like this? You join the High and the Low of the Basing Candle. Should we not draw from the High to the lower edge of the Body of the Basing Candle?
Thanks,

Cheers,

Emmanuel
  • #5,784
  • Jul 9, 2015 7:29am Jul 9, 2015 7:29am
Quoting lakis071051
{quote} Hi Alfonso, Why did you draw the middle Supply Zone like this? You join the High and the Low of the Basing Candle. Should we not draw from the High to the lower edge of the Body of the Basing Candle? Thanks, Cheers, Emmanuel
Drew the AUD/USD middle supply like that because when we have a single doji candle at the base and we have a trend, I normally cover the whole candle and adjust my risk, price could stop at any price within that candle.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,785
  • Jul 9, 2015 7:30am Jul 9, 2015 7:30am
Quoting courtneywild
the markets and our lives. Alfonso What an incredible amount of work you have done on this thread. Incredible and masterful. Congratulations.
Thanks for your kind words, it's a pleasure that my work is of help to others. Hope many will be able to utilize it and benefit from it.

Thanks again for your comment.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,786
  • Jul 9, 2015 7:46am Jul 9, 2015 7:46am
Price has not behaved as expected on GBP/CAD. We had two D1 demand zones, top one was potential but it didn't consolidate away (drawn in yellow in previous post)
Potential Weekly demand zone has not consolidate away either, rules say that lower timeframes demand zones within it are negated for set and forget longs, confirmation is needed, else longs lower at lower weekly demand zone if conditions continue as expected.

Check original post in this link to see D1 chart

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,787
  • Jul 9, 2015 9:38am Jul 9, 2015 9:38am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Drew the AUD/USD middle supply like that because when we have a single doji candle at the base and we have a trend, I normally cover the whole candle and adjust my risk, price could stop at any price within that candle. Cheers, Alfonso
Thanks a lot again.
Cheers,
Emmanuel
  • #5,788
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:04pm Jul 13, 2015 12:04pm
Hi!
I think it's a nice set up at monthly supply.
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  • #5,789
  • Jul 13, 2015 7:12pm Jul 13, 2015 7:12pm
Quoting Bigotibor
Hi! I think it's a nice set up at monthly supply. {image}
+1 as that SZ has wolfed down two DZs without a hic, but we still have 17 days to see if a full monthly candle would consolidate away from the trend line.

Off topic note:
New Horizons spacecraft will have its closest encounter to Pluto ~11 hrs later. You can check this NASA page for live event if you are interested
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/n...ain/index.html
Trade what you see..
  • #5,790
  • Edited 4:57pm Jul 14, 2015 10:40am | Edited 4:57pm
Hello fellow trader,

I would like to share with you a short but detailed analysis of some US Shares seen through the supply and demand glass and rules set of this thread.

Instead of uploading screenshots, I preferred to record a short 10 minutes video explaining each setup in detail while applying the rules on each single timeframe used in the sequence. If you don't know about the sequence and these rules, make sure you watch the latest webinars on Set and Forget's YouTube channel.

The same rules set can be applied to any instrument, be it Forex, Commodities, Indexes, Shares, Stocks, metals, anything, since markets move from supply to demand imbalances most of the time.

You can watch the short video analysis HERE or by clicking on the attachment below

These are the 3 US shares covered in this short supply and demand video analysis:

  1. Adobe D1 long at Weekly Demand zone
  2. TimeWarner D1 long at Weekly Demand zone
  3. Schwabb D1 long near Monthly Demand zone and flip zone

Have a great week! Spring and good weather are here!
Cheers,
Alfonso

Inserted Video
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,791
  • Edited 6:04am Jul 15, 2015 5:01am | Edited 6:04am
Small update on US share Schwabb D1 long, entry rationale was described in previous post's video analysis.

 

  1. Schwabb broken higher, made a higher higher above compressed D1 supply.
  2. Potential D1 CP DZ being created. Holding D1 DZ zone.
  3. Updated both D1 and WK ascending TLs since it made a higher high

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,792
  • Jul 15, 2015 12:15pm Jul 15, 2015 12:15pm
please explain me, reason why you draw that trend (yellow line). i dont see it connect any peaks, but you said: that trendline was broken
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  • #5,793
  • Jul 15, 2015 2:37pm Jul 15, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting baolong610
please explain me, reason why you draw that trend (yellow line). i dont see it connect any peaks, but you said: that trendline was broken {image}
You don't see two peaks but there are 2 peaks, that's why Lower are is a rally, bases and drops, tricky one but it's a peak. WK DZ in control, brand new D1 demand zone, pullback and potential entry. This scenario is quite common.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,794
  • Jul 15, 2015 3:26pm Jul 15, 2015 3:26pm
Hi

Does anybody know why rectangle reader indicator drawing supply zone where should be demand zone?
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  • #5,795
  • Jul 15, 2015 4:36pm Jul 15, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting petropaka
Hi Does anybody know why rectangle reader indicator drawing supply zone where should be demand zone? {image} {image}
Indicator emphasize the rectangles just to show you which ones are being used to determine the 'position in the curve' (thus will be indicated at lower time frames also) but can't sometimes know if it is demand or supply by itself. What it does here is to take the lower and oldest one as demand, middle and newer one as supply and the newest one as just a fresh zone. As you can see, price is in the stale (gray) rectangle and it seems indicator takes lower two rectangles as the monthly curve (by design) though as a 'human', you think price is coming from up thus upper ones are for the curve. This indicator has bugs also and sometimes it does not refresh the curve percent (upper right corner) when you add new rectangles to charts thus contradicting with the drawings. So I think you have drawn the lower and upper rectangles first as indicator shows '38%' monthly curve and added the middle one later so it has been emphasized as upper rectangle of the curve but percentage at upper right corner has not been refreshed.

Whenever this happens to me, I prefer to delete all levels and draw just two most important rectangles to get correct results but don't forget that indicator looks to current price to determine which zone is supply or demand.
Trade what you see..
  • #5,796
  • Jul 16, 2015 1:15am Jul 16, 2015 1:15am
Thank you for your answer Chawl.
  • #5,797
  • Jul 16, 2015 4:40am Jul 16, 2015 4:40am
USDCAD
D is up H4 is up i have two deman zone H1 are nestes in demand H4, i dont know which demand is better?
please explain me. thanks so much!!!
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  • #5,798
  • Jul 16, 2015 5:30am Jul 16, 2015 5:30am
In USD/CAD pair we are in WK and MN supply zones. So I think buying now it is not a good idea
  • #5,799
  • Jul 16, 2015 2:30pm Jul 16, 2015 2:30pm
Alfonso,

Hello, I came across your thread after listening to Sam S for quite a while and wasn't getting it. I like everyone else truly appreciate your hard work, and effort that you've provided. I've begun studying your material and listening to your YOUTUBE video's to digest this. I plan on taking all the needed time to get this right before I place a live trade. I have a few questionsif I may,
When assessing a level for it to be original my interpretation of the rule is, when an area is determined look left, and the 1st candle or area you run into should not be a reaction to a a previous level. I presume that the area left should be a solid body candle? In my example below area 2 is a doji pause on the way down, but on the way back up area #1 is fresh but would the pause at area 2 cause any concern? Does it negate it being original? I'm guessing that the area left shouldn't be a CP. Is that correct? An additional clarification, look at point 4 on my chart. It's a peak, which seems to be a reaction to the peak to it's left. In this case would that area at point 4 not be original?

My other point of confusion is looking at points 3, 4 and 5. How is point 4 to 5 considered any supply when it's inside the upleg from 3 to 4? If a price leg is inside or within an opposite price leg, how does that get defined as either supply or demand?

thanks again!

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1437072781
  • #5,800
  • Jul 16, 2015 3:53pm Jul 16, 2015 3:53pm
Quoting baolong610
USDCAD D is up H4 is up i have two deman zone H1 are nestes in demand H4, i dont know which demand is better? please explain me. thanks so much!!! {image}
I think the lower one isn't a demand zone.
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