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AUD/USD

  • #91,141
  • Jul 8, 2015 3:56pm Jul 8, 2015 3:56pm
Quoting jsshuai
au posed to drop...

Aussie data will come asian section...
  • #91,142
  • Jul 8, 2015 5:03pm Jul 8, 2015 5:03pm
Quoting Giganntor
{quote} AUD USD looks like a good long trade. It doesnt matter how retail traders are positioned. They trade with 20 pip stops and they are all going to get stopped out before the big boys take off. (In my humble opinion)

AUD looks TERRIBLE to go long. As bad as it gets. The Shanghai Composite looks leagues better to go long currently.
It does matter how retail traders are positioned. As a whole they are consistently on the wrong end of the trade. Its not a signal to make a trade off of day to day, but a great one to monitor trading trends. An over 3:1 ratio is a pretty high unbalance as well to further prove my point.

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Other comments to others

Any disappointments to USD rate rises will be from global risks, not domestic rooted. Which is arguably even more bullish for the USD than a rate rise (more so if you sell the news when they rise) when the world flocks to JPY and USD and CHF for safety

And trying to collect SWAP on long AUD is very foolish. You're risking to make <2% in a year, when you can be down 5% in a week.
Very smart to buy in a carry trade losing its appeal. Potentially higher USD rates and trending lower AUD rates.

Just be careful. I have conviction Im on the right side of the trade.
Its highly recommended to just sit out for a week. Lots of opportunity to jump in after some dust settles. In any RISK trade.
Expect lots of volatility.
  • #91,143
  • Jul 8, 2015 5:11pm Jul 8, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting RideTheWave
{quote} AUD looks TERRIBLE to go long.....
Agreed. In all time frame, it is screaming shorts. Many critical supports have been broken and will act as resistance levels.

Employment data in a few hrs time may fuel another leg down.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #91,144
  • Jul 8, 2015 5:46pm Jul 8, 2015 5:46pm
The Aussie is consolidating after recover from yesterday's low with concerning over China and Greece.
  • #91,145
  • Jul 8, 2015 6:35pm Jul 8, 2015 6:35pm
Quoting RideTheWave
{quote} And trying to collect SWAP on long AUD is very foolish. You're risking to make <2% in a year, when you can be down 5% in a week.
I agree that the movement in exchange rate generally dwarfs the swap but wish to point out that the appeal of swap is that it is a lot more than 2% in a year. With my broker for 1 std contract (margin $500) swap if long is approx $3.71 per day, if short approx -$6.56 per day. So IF exchange rate stayed the same than you are looking at approx $1,354 long, -$2,394 short over the course of a year.

Hence IF you buy at a good point you can make lots of money through swap and pip gain. Problem in current down market is there are fewer good points and they offer fewer pips.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #91,146
  • Jul 8, 2015 7:46pm Jul 8, 2015 7:46pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Agreed. In all time frame, it is screaming shorts. Many critical supports have been broken and will act as resistance levels. Employment data in a few hrs time may fuel another leg down.
Best time to sell aud.. Surely you will gain some bucks
  • #91,147
  • Jul 8, 2015 8:02pm Jul 8, 2015 8:02pm
Quoting ffmonry
{quote} Best time to sell aud.. Surely you will gain some bucks
??? how do you trade? Do you see any pattern for short? or for the sake of short trend you blindly place short with stoploss 1000pips?

I am seeing pattern long 30min chart..gartley pattern with 127.2% fibo level..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #91,148
  • Jul 8, 2015 8:11pm Jul 8, 2015 8:11pm
This pair could go down to the wire just before employment news:

Also short pattern in 5mins: gartley pattern + sma support the pattern if it reaches that price..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #91,149
  • Jul 8, 2015 8:50pm Jul 8, 2015 8:50pm
AUD Employment and Chinese data better than expected but yet AUD keeps falling. This simply shows how weak the currency is at the moment. Expect downward continuation.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #91,150
  • Jul 8, 2015 9:13pm Jul 8, 2015 9:13pm
Quoting acit
{quote} ??? how do you trade? Do you see any pattern for short? or for the sake of short trend you blindly place short with stoploss 1000pips? I am seeing pattern long 30min chart..gartley pattern with 127.2% fibo level.. {image}
, Hope you traded it that way.
  • #91,151
  • Jul 8, 2015 9:13pm Jul 8, 2015 9:13pm
Quoting Ssm
AUD Employment and Chinese data better than expected but yet AUD keeps falling. This simply shows how weak the currency is at the moment. Expect downward continuation.

Data from Australia is way too solid. Aud up more than 80 pips thus far.

I see a possibility of the pair hitting .75


Edit: Downtrend line on the hourly chart from start of July being tested currently. If hourly candle breaks above it, then we will see more upside in the days to come (corrective of course, but we won't know how much of a short squeeze can it go, possibility of hitting as high as .7580)

Play by ear and trade safe!
  • #91,152
  • Jul 8, 2015 9:17pm Jul 8, 2015 9:17pm
where is that muppet from malaysia???
  • #91,153
  • Jul 8, 2015 9:32pm Jul 8, 2015 9:32pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Data from Australia is way too solid. Aud up more than 80 pips thus far. I see a possibility of the pair hitting .75 Edit: Downtrend line on the hourly chart from start of July being tested currently. If hourly candle breaks above it, then we will see more upside in the days to come (corrective of course, but we won't know how much of a short squeeze can it go, possibility of hitting as high as .7580) Play by ear and trade safe!
yes but even that data couldn't get it to 0.75. one more low is still pending here and then it rebounds. I think there is some more damage left due to china and it is cautious bcoz of that
  • #91,154
  • Jul 8, 2015 9:40pm Jul 8, 2015 9:40pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} yes but even that data couldn't get it to 0.75. one more low is still pending here and then it rebounds. I think there is some more damage left due to china and it is cautious bcoz of that
China already banned short selling of their stocks. Hence, artificial or not, we will only see one direction in China's market, UP.

When you see the daily chart, you will get what i mean. Its a rather bullish candle to see today, nonetheless, play by ear and make changes to trades swiftly to avoid suffering huge losses.

My humble opinion
  • #91,155
  • Jul 8, 2015 9:46pm Jul 8, 2015 9:46pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} China already banned short selling of their stocks. Hence, artificial or not, we will only see one direction in China's market, UP. When you see the daily chart, you will get what i mean. Its a rather bullish candle to see today, nonetheless, play by ear and make changes to trades swiftly to avoid suffering huge losses. My humble opinion
I am sure aussie will rebound. today's employment data is good. also it has lot of gaps left to be closed in some of the crosses.
  • #91,156
  • Edited Jul 9, 2015 12:36am Jul 8, 2015 9:52pm | Edited Jul 9, 2015 12:36am
Quoting giveachance
where is that muppet from malaysia???
i don't know what you want from me but i just know u are just another spammer who talks a lot and never put up real live trades here

nowadays there are so many newbies like this around in FF posting flames and misleading information, and spam the post without any good reason, not to say they are very impolite as well (idiot Stevens? - quote from this guy on the Tuesday's post) and abuse using rude words like "fucking" and "idiots"

i hope admin in the Aud/Usd thread will take action on people like "giveachance" and ban him from the forum forever
  • #91,157
  • Jul 8, 2015 10:08pm Jul 8, 2015 10:08pm
0.75 is a resistance on the long side

longed at 0.7402 got out at 0.7467 - 65 pips done for the day
  • #91,158
  • Jul 8, 2015 10:08pm Jul 8, 2015 10:08pm
My mom called me to ask about China stocks... that when I knew it was time to close out AUD shorts. But not that we've popped up a bit Im looking to get back in. Hopefully we can get to around 91.00 on AUDJPY for a sell. Lets see how Shanghai does the rest of the day then decide. For now China stocks and iron ore price are steering price.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #91,159
  • Jul 8, 2015 10:11pm Jul 8, 2015 10:11pm
Quoting dab
{quote} I agree that the movement in exchange rate generally dwarfs the swap but wish to point out that the appeal of swap is that it is a lot more than 2% in a year. With my broker for 1 std contract (margin $500) swap if long is approx $3.71 per day, if short approx -$6.56 per day. So IF exchange rate stayed the same than you are looking at approx $1,354 long, -$2,394 short over the course of a year. Hence IF you buy at a good point you can make lots of money through swap and pip gain. Problem in current down market is there are fewer good points...
Its 2% anyway you look at it. If you add leverage you add it both ways.
Its a nice bonus but it is not something you do in a clear downtrend.

You are right though. If you buy dips, with a positive yield spread, in an up trending pair. Id be happy to pay every cent in capital gains tax
  • #91,160
  • Jul 8, 2015 11:06pm Jul 8, 2015 11:06pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Data from Australia is way too solid. Aud up more than 80 pips thus far. I see a possibility of the pair hitting .75 Edit: Downtrend line on the hourly chart from start of July being tested currently. If hourly candle breaks above it, then we will see more upside in the days to come (corrective of course, but we won't know how much of a short squeeze can it go, possibility of hitting as high as .7580) Play by ear and trade safe!

Downtrend line on the hourly broken upwards. Prepare for a possibility of more upside.

Trade safe guys!
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