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  • #136,041
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:51pm Jul 8, 2015 12:51pm
What say you geniuses? Will Monday bring the horror of the first cracks in the disintegration of European Union? Or, will cooler heads prevail over the weekend?

http://www.marctomarket.com/
"The market has been hit with two blows over successive weekends. However, the pessimist impulses have begun giving way to a more cautious optimism that a Greek deal can be worked out to avoid an imminent Greek exit and a collapse of the banking system. The euro has found a bid and Italian and Spanish (10-year) premium over Germany has fallen. US Treasury yields have recovered from the earlier decline to 2.17%, the lowest level in a month."

/ZB is flat - I see the tide turning, Yellen dove cooing to confirm - let's see.......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,042
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:54pm Jul 8, 2015 12:54pm
Right on time 1.104x as widely expected .... GL all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,043
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:55pm Jul 8, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} superdove Yellen Fed will take a Grexit or the smoking aftermath of China stock market crash or anything else it can get as an excuse to forego raising the ffr - Fed watchers are already poopooing a September hike and looking out to 2016 or the next Ice Age....
I can totally see that. Oh well, the markets will win out. Rock solid labor markets with increasingly diminishing slack will just force them to act via inflation later if that's the case and that will be their credibility on the line.

I'm completely in the camp of hiking in Sep if only to reflect the strength and progress made and secondarily/superficially to forestall any potential upcoming inflation problems. It also buys them time and space to track the subsequent impact instead of being forced/rushed via external events.
  • #136,044
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:57pm Jul 8, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} I can totally see that. Oh well, the markets will win out. Rock solid labor markets with increasingly diminishing slack will just force them to act via inflation later if that's the case and that will be their credibility on the line. I'm completely in the camp of hiking in Sep if only to reflect the strength and progress made and secondarily/superficially to forestall any potential upcoming inflation problems. It also buys them time and space to track the subsequent impact instead of being forced/rushed via external events.
Second that ... I completely agree with you ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,045
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:00pm Jul 8, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
I'm completely in the camp of hiking in Sep if only to reflect the strength and progress made and secondarily/superficially to forestall any potential upcoming inflation problems. It also buys them time and space to track the subsequent impact instead of being forced/rushed via external events.
I'm with you if there is no Graxident & if China slide bottoms in July
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,046
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:34pm Jul 8, 2015 1:34pm
Quoting The Fool
What say you geniuses? Will Monday bring the horror of the first cracks in the disintegration of European Union? Or, will cooler heads prevail over the weekend? - I see the tide turning, Yellen dove cooing to confirm - let's see.......
well, maybe not. One thing it may be important not to underestimate is the ineptitude of the Greek government.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,047
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:55pm Jul 8, 2015 1:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, maybe not. One thing it may be important not to underestimate is the ineptitude of the Greek government.....
maybe a bit off topic.. do you have any option plays going on s&p? vols creeping up and weekly looks exhausted
  • #136,048
  • Edited 2:39pm Jul 8, 2015 2:00pm | Edited 2:39pm
Quoting darimik
{quote} maybe a bit off topic.. do you have any option plays going on s&p? vols creeping up and weekly looks exhausted
shopping new trades as we speak, I have a Jul SPY $202/$200 puts credit spread that I am looking to defend
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,049
  • Edited 2:39pm Jul 8, 2015 2:20pm | Edited 2:39pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} shopping new trades as we speak, I have a Jul SPY $202/$200 puts credit spread that I am looking to defend
will likely wait & see what tomorrow brings - I want to sell a Jul SPY call spread, looking at $2 spreads w/ short leg @$210 or above, maybe we get some recovery tomorrow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,050
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:29pm Jul 8, 2015 2:29pm
Pretty much the same in the minutes as we already knew. Soft but not soft enough....

Markets ready to roll on rates but we need to clear Greece short term noise first. Pretty much an open secret everywhere that a new [3 year] deal is a done deal (for the 4th time this year and for the 1 million time in the last 6 years and...).

Nothing to do here ...sitting tight and letting it roll...1.104x only level track ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,051
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:36pm Jul 8, 2015 2:36pm
Quoting sisse
Pretty much an open secret everywhere that a new [3 year] deal is a done deal (for the 4th time this year and for the 1 million time in the last 6 years and...).
I know but what if they bring the wrong deal papers? Or they could get on the wrong bus for the summit? Shit happens....especially to a buncha stooges...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,052
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:39pm Jul 8, 2015 2:39pm
Dont think Granma is gonna hike

Inserted Video
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,053
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:50pm Jul 8, 2015 2:50pm
Quoting Banzaisky
Dont think Granma is gonna hike https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=18&v...egoryMannarino
wow, 9 minutes is too long, my attention span is 15 seconds at best, nice gel do tho, ....is it time to btfd yet...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,054
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:53pm Jul 8, 2015 2:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I know but what if they bring the wrong deal papers? Or they could get on the wrong bus for the summit? Shit happens....especially to a buncha stooges...
anyway, if sisse is right, short UST's is still the gimme trade for the summer...sell the TLT spike...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,055
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:54pm Jul 8, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting sisse
Pretty much the same in the minutes as we already knew. Soft but not soft enough.... Markets ready to roll on rates but we need to clear Greece short term noise first. Pretty much an open secret everywhere that a new [3 year] deal is a done deal (for the 4th time this year and for the 1 million time in the last 6 years and...). Nothing to do here ...sitting tight and letting it roll...1.104x only level track .... sisse
Yep
was waiting to see PA action @one of this point 1040 or 1140
till then no much to do
  • #136,056
  • Jul 8, 2015 3:18pm Jul 8, 2015 3:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I know but what if they bring the wrong deal papers? Or they could get on the wrong bus for the summit? Shit happens....especially to a buncha stooges...
I think everybody had enough with Greece. The last bit of patience and sympathy from the EZ was flushed away when they and how they called the Referendum. 15 of the 18 countries are now on a very hard line with Greece (well when you play, insult and annoy the ego of old "empires" ...things get messy....).

More and more details are coming of the last few days. All pointing that pretty much is unanimous decision to expel/freeze Greece from the EZ if they mess around this weekend. All are extremely angry (and this time openly angry ) in the way they have play politics with this. Some actually expect Greece to screw this time on purpose as their ultimate goal is to default and runaway (don't forget also the extreme RIGHT is in power..) and wont even stay for a extended meeting on sunday if they smell drama...

Whatever the case, if Greece complain they had enough from the EZ, we officially can confirm the other way around is even more true.

Grexit/Greece freeze temporary from the EZ will be better for the euro in the long run and for us traders in the short term (we all, retail, speculators, investors and macro players are also SICK of tweeter trading and drama trading....) but kicking the can for another 3 years extension will also do the trick.... what is clear is that this time we will get, in the worst case scenario, at least a further kicking the can for 3 years....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,057
  • Jul 8, 2015 3:27pm Jul 8, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting sisse
I think everybody had enough with Greece.
If you can just promise that it will all be "over" come Monday, then I will be your bff. God bless you, sisse.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,058
  • Jul 8, 2015 4:20pm Jul 8, 2015 4:20pm
Quoting egkid
{quote} Yep was waiting to see PA action @one of this point 1040 or 1140 till then no much to do
I'm happy to short both.
  • #136,059
  • Jul 8, 2015 5:11pm Jul 8, 2015 5:11pm
EUR/CHF up 0,44% today. Looks as SNB are buying loads of eur0
  • #136,060
  • Jul 9, 2015 12:58am Jul 9, 2015 12:58am
Quoting The Fool
What say you geniuses? Will Monday bring the horror of the first cracks in the disintegration of European Union? Or, will cooler heads prevail over the weekend? http://www.marctomarket.com/ "The market has been hit with two blows over successive weekends. However, the pessimist impulses have begun giving way to a more cautious optimism that a Greek deal can be worked out to avoid an imminent Greek exit and a collapse of the banking system. The euro has found a bid and Italian and Spanish (10-year) premium over Germany has fallen. US Treasury...
What, nobody? Step up now, don't be scurred - prove you're as wise as the Fool. The Greek drama will be fading next week, Greece will get a deal and remain in the EMU....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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