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  • #9,381
  • Jul 8, 2015 11:38am Jul 8, 2015 11:38am
Quoting StrayDog
Every VIX spike over $19 should be sold. Best results for me is going long XIV. It has CFDs also, and margin req. is smaller... Yesterdays range was over $4 on it, from 37.40 to 41.something .
no options on XIV....

je suis un voyeur. Mostly in cash, since I have gone mostly into playing these swing spreads, the daily volatility flies under my radar. I am not watching the markets hour by hour either. Now curious to see if the FOMC minutes will turn up this slide of US equities, coming up in an hour...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,382
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:00pm Jul 8, 2015 12:00pm
ah, /ES coming up a bit - NYSE had to stop to fix the Fed's sub-nanosecond connection. We cool now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,383
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:16pm Jul 8, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting The Fool
... no options on XIV...
I know, but it is cheap enough to buy shares. Also very liquid (much more than SVXY), bid/ask spread 1c.

SVXY has options but not so good.... VXX options are the best, UVXY options the worst. VIX options - hm, so-so
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,384
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:35pm Jul 8, 2015 12:35pm
looking for big green weekly candles on VXX, see back Dec/Jan there were a few - biggest range was $8+, then a few @ $5-6....we haven't managed to match that since then, this week looking at ~$3 range.

So, maybe we could see VXX pop $5+ next week on a de facto Grexit?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-08_vxx1.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,385
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:41pm Jul 8, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting The Fool
Now curious to see if the FOMC minutes will turn up this slide of US equities, coming up in an hour...
if I were a scalper I would be looking for /ES to scoot back above 2060 on the dove sounds
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,386
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:47pm Jul 8, 2015 12:47pm
good counter for any speculators lusting after a Grexit-induced vix spike....

http://www.marctomarket.com/
"The market has been hit with two blows over successive weekends. However, the pessimist impulses have begun giving way to a more cautious optimism that a Greek deal can be worked out to avoid an imminent Greek exit and a collapse of the banking system. The euro has found a bid and Italian and Spanish (10-year) premium over Germany has fallen. US Treasury yields have recovered from the earlier decline to 2.17%, the lowest level in a month."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,387
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:08pm Jul 8, 2015 1:08pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} if I were a scalper I would be looking for /ES to scoot back above 2060 on the dove sounds

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,388
  • Jul 8, 2015 3:16pm Jul 8, 2015 3:16pm
I sold a Jul $210/$212 SPY call spread at the close for $0.29, so now IC'd at Jul $200/$202 and $210/$212. I guess I expect the Greek deal rumors to start showing up Friday, w/ confirmation in the wires Sunday night. $210 might be low but we will see. If I am wrong and SPY crashes thru next week, the call spread credit will soften the hit I may have to take on $202 puts short... if things work out well, the IC closes for about $0.60 net...

omg, looking for Greece to get out of my way....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,389
  • Jul 8, 2015 9:49pm Jul 8, 2015 9:49pm
What the hell is holding gold up?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-08_GLD-DAG.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,390
  • Jul 8, 2015 10:03pm Jul 8, 2015 10:03pm
Quoting The Fool
looking for big green weekly candles on VXX, see back Dec/Jan there were a few - biggest range was $8+, then a few @ $5-6....we haven't managed to match that since then, this week looking at ~$3 range. So, maybe we could see VXX pop $5+ next week on a de facto Grexit?
watching for a UVXY bull put spread entry for Friday expiry. /ES and the Chinese indices up overnight, I need to see UVXY crash thru $40....

will also look at VXX Friday long strangles or perhaps for Jul expiry, need to see vix fall hard on Thurs for those.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,391
  • Jul 8, 2015 10:43pm Jul 8, 2015 10:43pm
Yeesh ... . /ES futures up; Hang Seng plunge temporarily in abeyance, likely to spill over into New York if it sticks ... . Would like to see something more toward 208 to sell calls into in SPY, but may just sit on my hands for the next several days ... . Plenty of trades on that might turn into turd, depending on what happens with Greece ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,392
  • Jul 9, 2015 12:01am Jul 9, 2015 12:01am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Yeesh ... . /ES futures up; Hang Seng plunge temporarily in abeyance, likely to spill over into New York if it sticks ... . Would like to see something more toward 208 to sell calls into in SPY, but may just sit on my hands for the next several days ... . Plenty of trades on that might turn into turd, depending on what happens with Greece ... .
yeah I IC'd the Jul bull puts I had with Jul bear call at $210 short, see above....even though the $210/$212 calls have only 7 dte, the call spread paid just 2c less than the put spreads, which were done 6/29, thanks sweet vol. I have 40 lots of those $202/$200, wanted to wait til Thurs-Fri to see if some bounce action might help me go Jul $211, $212 on the short Jul calls instead....

I will wait til Monday to see if the world ends or the can kicks, still sitting on lotsa dry pow, will wait for SPY to jump to sell calls spreads, or maybe keep falling into some bull puts spreads. Looking for TLT to fall, gold to fall, vix to fall, all fall down...if the Greek can kicks which I fear it must....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,393
  • Jul 9, 2015 12:38am Jul 9, 2015 12:38am
the Beijing put? .. gotta love 1-way markets...will have to watch FXI tomorrow...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-...003801709.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,394
  • Jul 9, 2015 7:09am Jul 9, 2015 7:09am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah I IC'd the Jul bull puts I had with Jul bear call at $210 short, see above....even though the $210/$212 calls have only 7 dte, the call spread paid just 2c less than the put spreads, which were done 6/29, thanks sweet vol. I have 40 lots of those $202/$200, wanted to wait til Thurs-Fri to see if some bounce action might help me go Jul $211, $212 on the short Jul calls instead.... I will wait til Monday to see if the world ends or the can kicks, still sitting on lotsa dry pow, will wait for SPY to jump to sell calls spreads, or maybe...
My lowest short call is at 212, my highest short put at 199 ... . Feel okay about the call side; it's the put side makes me nervous ... . Knew that it would when I put them on ... . Sitting on what I have on now, probably at least until Tuesday, when I'll have to make a decision about a couple of July 10 expiration strangles in TLT and TBT ... .

One thing's for certain -- one side or the other of these strangles will expire worthless ... . It's the other side I'm worried about ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,395
  • Jul 9, 2015 7:20am Jul 9, 2015 7:20am
Quoting The Fool
the Beijing put? .. gotta love 1-way markets...will have to watch FXI tomorrow... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-...003801709.html
Thank you very much for article.
..
articles.. this one was also great
Quoting The Fool
http://247wallst.com/banking-finance...it-to-the-dow/ {image}
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,396
  • Jul 9, 2015 9:35am Jul 9, 2015 9:35am
Quoting The Fool
I have 40 lots of those $202/$200, wanted to wait til Thurs-Fri to see if some bounce action might help me go Jul $211, $212 on the short Jul calls instead....
did some more Jul $211/$213 calls at $0.31 credit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,397
  • Jul 9, 2015 5:57pm Jul 9, 2015 5:57pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} did some more Jul $211/$213 calls at $0.31 credit


If all goes well, going to take off the July 10 TBT strangle and the July 10 TLT strangle for 50% max profit each ... . I know they're close to expiration, but both have been whipsawing ... . Best not to hold out for more and potentially cause a headache for myself at the last moment ... . Would also like to use the BP elsewhere, frankly ... .

Waiting to add positions at the Aug 28 expiry for my weekly mechanical index trade; SPY/DIA/IWM/QQQ all in good high IVR territory, so pointless to even gander at earnings plays at this point unless volatility totally implodes ... .

Did briefly look at VXX and UVXY ... . Can't configure a set-up that will be (a) profitable; and (b) not make me crap my pants at some point ... . So, hand-sitting some more ... . SPY popping off lows post-New York close on grunting noises coming from Greece ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,398
  • Jul 9, 2015 6:57pm Jul 9, 2015 6:57pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
So, hand-sitting some more ... . SPY popping off lows post-New York close on grunting noises coming from Greece ... .
Greek can kick should finally get confirmed and US equities should rally. My premise has been that such a rally would be constrained, and I am looking to sell call spreads when SPY bumps to $210 or better. TLT should drop to prior lows and go lower, and pdq.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,399
  • Jul 9, 2015 6:59pm Jul 9, 2015 6:59pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Did briefly look at VXX and UVXY ... . Can't configure a set-up that will be (a) profitable; and (b) not make me crap my pants at some point ...... .
I will look at VXX weekly trades for next week's expiry, VXX should be back to $17 or lower by this time next week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,400
  • Jul 9, 2015 9:54pm Jul 9, 2015 9:54pm
GREK super bull, fund the Aug vertical calls with short Aug put spread - perhaps $10/$9 (ay, que cojones!) for $0.40 credit - look for it Friday....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-09_GREK.png Size: 120 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-09_GREK2.png Size: 53 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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