Let's Trade Options | Page 453 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

BELLA SYSTEM. Let's try it, let's improve it! 118 replies

Let's Trade The News V 0.4 ! 479 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Let's Trade The News! 46 replies

Let a trade develop? 17 replies

Attachments: Let's Trade Options
Exit Attachments

Let's Trade Options

  • #9,041
  • Jun 11, 2015 2:13pm Jun 11, 2015 2:13pm
Quoting StrayDog
/ES crawling up AGAIN... Incredibly boring PA last couple of hours.
another day w/ volume maybe 75% of normal
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,042
  • Jun 11, 2015 4:22pm Jun 11, 2015 4:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} another day w/ volume maybe 75% of normal
I think good chance of /ES going down tomorrow, techically looking only.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,043
  • Jun 11, 2015 5:33pm Jun 11, 2015 5:33pm
yeah maybe they will get the Greece anxt going again....if I see those $197/$199 Jul SPY short puts at near 50% as they were today, I might be inclined to take it tomorrow.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,044
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:33am Jun 12, 2015 12:33am
Quoting The Fool
yeah maybe they will get the Greece anxt going again.........
sure, close another week with no deal for Greece & fiber sells off, maybe selloff continues into next week. We could see sub $1.10 and that would be sub $108 for FXE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-11_fxe.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,045
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:42am Jun 12, 2015 12:42am
Quoting The Fool
new 52-week low for VXX today, they prolly have to rev split that soon like they did UVXY
VXX should gap up Fri, but the $0.50 otm calls might be a good bet & can be got for <$0.05....get in early or on a further dip?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,046
  • Jun 12, 2015 5:58am Jun 12, 2015 5:58am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30w5j6h.jpg Size: 154 KB


something to share
1. High iv rank
2. Chart On the down trend with a slight rebounce
3. Decent volume on 7 dte and standard monthly settlement expiration
4. Low delta abot 15 to 19 on both call ( might not be low enough for you T.F )
Probably looking to sell a call above 120
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 149mq8x.jpg Size: 193 KB

Hefty commission is killing me
Any advice on the above ? Seems my Risk and reward is always too low , not to mention the commission that is taking a huge amount away from me ..
  • #9,047
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:15am Jun 12, 2015 7:15am
To me, the risk/reward doesn't look attractive, especially with FOMC next week wich could cause some hefty moves.
  • #9,048
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:20am Jun 12, 2015 7:20am
Hey nickah, TLT gots high IVR but the implied volatility is still pretty low, around 15% on those options, so if you want to sell spreads and get good returns, you will have to widen out the spread, on low iv index etf options I am usually looking at $1.50 to $3.00. Also, spreaders are usually looking out further - I usually start looking at spreads with 21dte....lots of your options gurus say 45dte is a sweet spot. I seem to be getting them on with decent returns somewhat less than that, I'd say somewhere between 20-40dte is where I land most of the time.

hope that helps....just woke up....need coffee....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,049
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:24am Jun 12, 2015 7:24am
Quoting Vermeer
To me, the risk/reward doesn't look attractive, especially with FOMC next week wich could cause some hefty moves.
yeah, Vermeer, I am mindful of FOMC, too. When there are big mover events like FOMC, NFP, GDP, elections, etc etc - I will look to see what I can take off with good profit or roll out or whatever in the days before those - but....they are always coming at you, so ,,,,right, need coffee....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,050
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:42am Jun 12, 2015 7:42am
Greece is still the big wild card, imo - we are not going to see big trends either way until that trump is played out. It could be played multiple times, too. We could see some wild volatility - I am looking for cheap ways to play the possible heavy drops in the stock indices, fiber, possibly individual names....if there is no Greek "deal" announcement today I'd bet we will see all those trend down thru today & into next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,051
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:50am Jun 12, 2015 7:50am
Good morning sir coffee for you
Attached Image


Put in this trade pending for order triggered.
Starting with a week dte betting on theta will go in my favor
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 33o1e1s.jpg Size: 192 KB
  • #9,052
  • Jun 12, 2015 8:02am Jun 12, 2015 8:02am
if you want to get some pop on a one week dte spread you might look at the very high iv VIX based options like VXX and UVXY....the latter with options iv >100%....very risky, though....I'd much rather sell spikes in the VIX than anything else.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,053
  • Jun 12, 2015 8:10am Jun 12, 2015 8:10am
>$0.50 credit on a $2 7dte put spread on UVXY...because the short option has iv ~95%. Long volatility always a gamble, though.......but, perhaps a reasonable one with Greece issue coming to a head now....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-12_uvxy.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,054
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:57pm Jun 12, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting The Fool
>$0.50 credit on a $2 7dte put spread on UVXY...because the short option has iv ~95%. Long volatility always a gamble, though.......but, perhaps a reasonable one with Greece issue coming to a head now.... {image}
Or, you can buy VIX June 15/16 bull call spread for $0.13... But better choice, because of better POP, is June 14.50/15... 2,000 went for $0.12
VIX options expiry is on June 16th, a day BEFORE the FOMC... that is a mofo, but hey, this market is rigged anyway, so why bother with crying.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,055
  • Jun 12, 2015 1:02pm Jun 12, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Or, you can buy VIX June 15/16 bull call spread for $0.13... But better choice, because of better POP, is June 14.50/15... 2,000 went for $0.12 VIX options expiry is on June 16th, a day BEFORE the FOMC... that is a mofo, but hey, this market is rigged anyway, so why bother with crying.
no time for weeklies for me today, been a good week, not much new, really, we'll see what next week brings. Have a good weekend, ya'll....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,056
  • Jun 13, 2015 8:49pm Jun 13, 2015 8:49pm
http://247wallst.com/banking-finance...it-to-the-dow/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-13_JPM.png Size: 56 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,057
  • Jun 13, 2015 9:02pm Jun 13, 2015 9:02pm
SnP was nearly flat across last week, ...UVXY finished almost 10% down....?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-13_UVXY.png Size: 121 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,058
  • Jun 14, 2015 12:33am Jun 14, 2015 12:33am
ZNGA IVR bottomed, check the pre-ER run-up - ER's in mid August
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-13_ZNGA.png Size: 162 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,059
  • Edited 12:57am Jun 14, 2015 12:41am | Edited 12:57am
as the options iv blows up into August, the strangle b/e's will come in towards $3 & you might get out with a profit before the ER iv dump, even if ZNGA share price does not move much. If it moves - much - also acceptable.

If ZNGA moves past either b/e pre-ER, close that side and keep the otm options for a risk-free gamble on a big move thru the ER and beyond...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-13_znga2.png Size: 72 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,060
  • Jun 14, 2015 1:48am Jun 14, 2015 1:48am
someday, gold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-13_AU.png Size: 55 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
55 traders viewing now