NZD/USD

Sorry.
As I read from the home page : http://www.fonterra.com/global/en, the icon is changed and I went in and saw the date is about April2015. I thought a normal interim report would be about the past several months. So I checked by go-back a level : Financial : http://www.fonterra.com/global/en/Financial : so I thought the date : 7July2015 : today : is the release date : Ok, I think I make a mistake again, Sorry!

Which means ? End of the down move? or more fall ?

it is only the width of the consolidation range and TP, now you have to observe divergence on the 1 hour 4 hours or some sort of correction trend is visible

but not now hunt Long until they show positive divergence correction is also available

nothin to say...oversold etc

2lots long 0.6630 TP 0.6795 area depending on data SL @ 0.6595

Nothing seems to stop NZDUSD from falling to newer lows everyday, but would be prudent to take some profits off the table coz of highly oversold conditions...

NZD has a new official cash rate of 3.25% after the RBNZ cut rates on June 11. The Bank has left the door open for further easing and as such the Kiwi dollar is a bearish currency in the medium term. The recent GDP reading showed a huge miss and this adds weight to the chance of another rate cut, with some banks calling for two more cuts in 2015. Kiwi is at multi-year lows. Credit Suisse’s OIS market is pricing an 92% chance of a cut at the July 23rd meeting.

Will this time the iron ore 's price-drop cause NZD/USD to drop further today (to 0.65xx level)?
Please advise. (as I do not have enough knowledge on this topic.)

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Month End Financial Statements
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/governme...ments/monthend
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Monthly Economic Indicators June 2015
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/mei/jun15
Published 7 Jul 2015 (yesterday)

on the page of the above link
pdf file
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/.../mei-jun15.pdf
"conclusion" on page10

also on the same page
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/...arts-jun15.pdf
on page19
chart of Real GDP Growth shows June GDP is going up (very fine).
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June Cricket World Cup would support tomorrow NZ June credit card spending data but before it, the US Consumer Credit (May) may affect the strength of NZD/USD.
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I wouldn't expect iron ore price to impact NZD whatsoever.

However, I would expect to see further falls in the Chinese stock market impact both iron ore price, and the NZD for similar, but independent reasons.

1.) Iron ore price is tightly linked to demand coming from Chinese growth. The Chinese stock market is falling extremely rapidly (~3 trillion USD in 3-4 weeks), so that would indicate slowing growth and therefore lowering demand for construction, therefore steel, therefore iron ore - hence, as a supply-push commodity product, the price falls.

2.) Dairy commodities are NZ's key export, and the largest export market for us is China. There has been lagging demand for a long time due to high inventory levels in China, and for the same reasons as I mentioned in 1.), the slowdown of Chinese demand for dairy commodities (also supply-push) has a ripple effect to NZ's economic growth prospects, and therefore will negatively impact the NZD.

Final note, given there isn't a lot of demand currently for dairy commodities, and the NZ milk season is about to startup (where volume climbs 1800% from July - October in a supply-side price driven market for commodities, and yes I do mean 18x), I am betting on the NZD continuing it's steady decline based on growth projections slowing, and potentially further OCR cuts - the lower dollar supports export prices for us for which dairy is the largest.

Personally, I am short the Kiwi.

i expect china to cut rates again..it will make nzd and aud fly up

My Upper trend line of this downward channel is at 0.685 area

Be careful what you wish for

FEBRUARY 2015

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Feb. 4 unexpectedly cuts reserve requirement ratio for a broad range of banks, the first industry-wide cut since May 2012. The reserve requirement for big banks is cut by 50 basis points to 19.50 percent, freeing up 600 billion yuan held as reserves.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Feb. 28 cuts its benchmark lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points to counter the dampening impact on economic activity from the rise in real interest rates from economic restructuring and the sharp fall in commodity prices that has pushed down consumer price inflation. The one-year lending rate was cut to 5.35 percent and the one-year deposit rate to 2.50 percent. PBOC also continues the process of allowing prices to become more market-oriented by raising the maximum rate that financial institutions can offer.

APRIL 2015

The People’s Bank of China on April 19 cuts its reserve requirement for all banks by 100 basis points to 18.50 percent, the second cut this year, saying the slowdown in several areas, such as industrial output and retail sales, “has caused concern.” In addition, the PBOC also cut the reserve requirement for rural credit cooperatives and village banks by an additional 100 points and the requirement for the China Agricultural Development Bank by 200 points.

MAY 2015

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on May 10 cuts its benchmark interest rates by a further 25 basis points in a long-expected move to stimulate activity in an economy that is facing “greater downward pressures” while inflation remains low and real interest rates are higher than the historical average. The PBOC cut its one-year lending rate to 5.1 percent and the one-year deposit rate to 2.25 percent. The lending rate has now been cut by 50 basis points this year. PBOC also lifts ceiling on banks’ deposit rate to 1.5 times the benchmark rate from 1.3 times as it continues to liberalize financial sector.

JUNE 2015

Jun 27: benchmark 1-year lending rate cut 25 bps to 4.85% and reserve requirement for rural lenders by 50 bps and ratio for financial firms by 300 bps

gartley on the daily and hd-

Engulfing bar down on Friday on D 1.

Nothing happened all day Thursday and then boom a drop of about 35 points midday on Friday. Looking at the calendar all I can see is CAD employment data around that time. Does this move the NZD?

Technically (see unsophisticated chart below), there was an obvious loss of momentum for any significant retrace. As is common, retracements into strong trends tend to be fairly feeble and in many cases stall out at the 38FIB. The 4H shows and initial retrace into the 38FIB. After some consolidation you can see price barely trading above the weekly pivot and then ultimately being rejected 4 times by the 50FIB.

Fundamentally, there were also likely a few factors as well. For one, Fed Chair Yellen was scheduled for her usual gum flapping session, which although is usually uneventfully dovish, it still makes people nervous. Secondly, even with an apparent but not certain Greek deal on the table, most prudent investors would likely want to close any positions before the weekend.

And thirdly, from a longer term perspective, I suspect that regardless of Yellen's comments or the Grexit scenario, on Wednesday July 15th the GDT (Global Dairy Trade) numbers are released. IMHO, that release can't help the Kiwi. Summer supply is on the rise, Chinese demand is decreasing so one would have to believe that dairy prices will continue to fall. Falling prices for NZ's main export obviously puts pressure on the RBNZ to cut rates further. If and when that happens is anyone's guess. So any short term 'risk on' spike from any Grexit deal won't negate the Kiwi's fundamental predicament.

Personally I am still short the Kiwi and believe that at the very least the 2010 low in the .6560 area needs to be tested before any significant price recovery takes place but I still wouldn't be a buyer at that level. With dairy prices likely to remain weak for several more months I wouldn't be surprised to see .6000 before the end of the year, especially if there is another rate cut.

Not a trade recommendation, just my 2 cents, trade safe and be blessed

PS. There is also the obvious possibility too. Market makers hunting stop losses for those trying to stay in the 'long' game over the weekend for any potential big gap up Sunday from any Grexit deal risk on sentiment. As Friday liquidity dries up, spreads increase significantly so it behooves the market makers to make you buy back in as much as possible, especially knowing no one wants to have a huge stop loss in place.

Does anyone have any thoughts for the apparant kiwi strength we saw mid week (excluding friday)
with the negative kiwi fundermental back drop,its puzzling - I wonder if were forming a bottom
any thoughts
many thanks

Welcome to trading. That is the eternal question which everyone has to consider. Is it going up or is it going down?

General "risk on" sentiment across the board, possible Grexit deal, Chinese market rebounded on Thursday and Friday, technical retracement. Take your pick, price generally doesn't fall off a cliff indefinitely without some kind of a little bounce

You already have some excellent answers to this question; all I can add is "profit taking" and exits on fear of Greek upset during weekend might cause another Monday gap.

Other than that, it looks pretty normal swing in the market - some lucky person actually sold the top on Friday !!! Takes more than 2 days to form a bottom, and as you mention, plenty of bear left in NZD

Not me....

thanks 'Erebus'
you say "plenty of bear left in NZD
Not me.... can I ask your opinon on that statement - i thought kiwi is the most bearish major currency - possibly rbnz 3 rate cuts, chinese slowdown etc - the future for kiwi appears gloomy - thanks