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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,961
  • Jul 5, 2015 3:05pm Jul 5, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yep, good points. But I still can not afford to go party with Nordic babes in volcanic hot tubs under the northern lights in Iceland.....
je je je .... we'll it got a lot cheaper after the crash...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,962
  • Edited 4:02pm Jul 5, 2015 3:28pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ....dont forget to add a country was 3 time richer, 20 times more developed, no corruption, a tiny and very efficient economy, and structurally 1 mill times better in any economic, political and social aspect. Iceland was a bank solvency VERY TINY collateral problem during the biggest financial crisis in the world in the last 100 years .... there is no point of comparing with Greece. Greek problems are beyond banks. They are deep and structural. sisse
Well yes and no Sisse. Their debt/GDP ratio cant be compared to Greek one, neither their size, neither structure of market. On the other hand, what can be very well compared is type of crisis. Sure, you can say this is sovereign debt crisis. But where it originated? It originated in 2008 subprime crisis. It is all in the rotten banking sector and that is the lesson we can learn from Iceland. You know the stuff surrounding banks balance sheets...barely meeting Basel criteria...while they have crooked accounting valued pre crisis - again mostly real estate. Banks facked up, burden was moved to the public sector....public sector facked up...Greece facked up. And noone is looking at those banksters responsible.

Sure, now when public sector screwed, we are currently looking at bond yields rather than banks. People have too short memory. Is all banksters fault, not Greece. They are the ones who should pay. But I admit, now...after bailouts, QEs and twisted accounting is prolly too late to send em to court and make them pay.

What am I talking about is that everyone is looking the wrong direction. Greece this, Greece that...soon it can be Portugal or Spain..or whole Europe...while in the first place..we should hang the ones responsible.

So the solution:
Am long term standing behind monetization. Dont give me Weimar Germany arguments here..we no longer live in such age. Minor monetization is 10x times better than cash bombing the banksters responsible for the crisis in the first place. We should cash bomb South of Europe...and hang the banksters.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #135,963
  • Jul 5, 2015 3:44pm Jul 5, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yep, good points. But I still can not afford to go party with Nordic babes in volcanic hot tubs under the northern lights in Iceland.....

been there, done that. can highly recommend! although the smell of sulfuric hot springs is not to everyone's liking.
  • #135,964
  • Jul 5, 2015 3:49pm Jul 5, 2015 3:49pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Jun 27, 2012 7:27am {quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=547854 {quote}
emu is even worse.. it was built on 911 easing. before 911 the trajectory wa down and already .8xxx.. and even before 911 the usd dropped because of energy.. that is now going back toward the 200 year trend, reversing the 40 year bounce (usd drop).. most traders can't comprehend what this reset will do.. with emerging markets.. the ecb shot itself in the foot..by not appeasing some of the poor members in keeping the euro high. it was kept high to help germany. and doing this hurt the southern members more. u reap what u sow,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #135,965
  • Jul 5, 2015 3:59pm Jul 5, 2015 3:59pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well yes and no Sisse. ..... People have too short memory. Is all banksters fault, not Greece. They are the ones who should pay.....What am I talking about is now everyone is looking the wrong direction. Greece this, Greece that...soon it can be Portugal or Spain..or whole Europe...while in the first place..we should hang the ones responsible.
Well agree on that one but why are you allowing the corrupt Greek governments and the latest 30 years of criminal mismanagement of the economy let out of the hook so easy....

I see where are you coming from. Sure bankers and bastards squeezed the pig and the run away when the ship was sinking and clearing everything behind doors under the "Greek bailouts and renegotiation" but honestly that is not really NEWS.

If you or anybody really think that the bastards were going to play "Mother Teresa" in Greece well that is naive to say the least....Everybody knows that they only care about return on equity and no BS social cost or fleecing a country...

My point is, when you mismanage you economy for so long (way before the Euro), and then you lie your way in (cooking accounts) into the Euro, then get addicted to debt with 0 investment for economic growth and only to inflate a mammoth unproductive public sector, and then have 6 years to make a plan or turn things around and do nothing... blaming the bastards that everybody knows they are only there for the quick buck, its just too easy and it only perpetuate not fixing your real problems ....

I strongly disagree with you that the problem were the bastards and banks...those are the consequences [Greece was the perfect "swamp" for them] of the corruption and mismanagement of the Greek economy for so long....

Naivety is not excuse for stupidity.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,966
  • Edited 4:33pm Jul 5, 2015 4:18pm | Edited 4:33pm
Quoting sisse
I strongly disagree with you that the problem were the bastards and banks...those are the consequences [Greece was the perfect "swamp" for them] of the corruption and mismanagement of the Greek economy for so long.... Nativity is not excuse for stupidity. sisse
How can you disagree mate? Ok, is a circle..hard to say if egg was first or the chicken. Subprime long story ultrashort: US govt forced banks to make cheap housing loans..banks bubbled..bubble burst..burden was moved to public...yields spiked...public sector facked. So in the end we can say it is all US govt fault .

All I am saying is... US has 17Tril USD deficit. Japan debt/gdp ratio @ 250%. Is not Greece..is all "western" capitalistic states. Our teacher on Public finance once told us this funny sentence: "You know students, why in old Greece democracy not everyone had right to vote? Because old Greeks knew people are generally lazy and if everyone is allowed to vote, it will create unsustainable pressure on public finance in the long run." And thats about it. All democratic capitalistic states have the very same trouble. Aging population and unsustainable debt burden. Sure, Greece politicians also facked up...but just take a look at French subsidies for agriculture. France is squeezing EU cash. Or look at OhBummer Care.

So...should we assume growing debt/gdp ratio is connected to democracy, we could also assume there is the one and only way to lower this burden - beiing evolution of technology (or worker efficiency, whatever). However, in the short run, when you dont have time to evolve, what you gonna do? a) forgive and forget b) monetize. Is the very easiest way, just to give Greece some time via monetization or (should ECB backstop as lender of last resort) lowering yields. Same time US is receiving, same time Japan is receiving. It is fair.

Monetize Greek debt, hang the banksters, problem solved.

edit: Gotta go to sleep. Need to wake up on LO...think you have the same issue . Thx for chat and cya later. 1,075 would be perf load for longs in my charts... but am in no rush...actually on vacation in woods till dust settles.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #135,967
  • Jul 5, 2015 5:05pm Jul 5, 2015 5:05pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
... Gotta go to sleep. Need to wake up on LO...think you have the same issue . Thx for chat and cya later. 1,075 would be perf load for longs in my charts... but am in no rush...actually on vacation in woods till dust settles. T
...yeap ... I was just waiting for the initial opening range before closing shop. Cleared first [TP hit on the open] swing target 1.098x but let the hedge open until the european open [that was my doubt today] ....and thats was pretty much it.

Wide Intraday chop zone confirmed 1.096x / 1.111x until further data and the opening tomorrow ...

Nothing to see here until then... talk you tomorrow ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,968
  • Jul 5, 2015 5:32pm Jul 5, 2015 5:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...yeap ... I was just waiting for the initial opening range before closing shop. Cleared first [TP hit on the open] swing target 1.098x but let the hedge open until the european open [that was my doubt today] ....and thats was pretty much it. Wide Intraday chop zone confirmed 1.096x / 1.111x until further data and the opening tomorrow ... Nothing to see here until then... talk you tomorrow .... sisse
You thinking CBs are still stepping in to float?
  • #135,969
  • Jul 5, 2015 6:17pm Jul 5, 2015 6:17pm
OMG US Women vs Japan...please won't someone stop it?....omg.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,970
  • Jul 5, 2015 8:25pm Jul 5, 2015 8:25pm
Quoting The Fool
OMG US Women vs Japan........
good final, Carli Lloyd from 54 yards - epic.

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,971
  • Jul 6, 2015 12:48am Jul 6, 2015 12:48am
Quoting sisse
Oh yeah definitely...
You may be right. On the other hand there is the proven tendency of these negotiations to drag on and on. With Schulz proposing a 'relief programme', the next path is open.

As far as I see the german media reaction, there won't be any vote by the Bundestag for a deal anytime soon. Schaeuble is now Germany's most popular politician. Ms Merkel hasn't spoken yet, but it doesn't look like there is a pro-deal majority of the leading coalition, she would have to rely on votes from the opposition party. Won't happen.
Hollande will press for a deal today, Italy already does.
Fail better.
  • #135,972
  • Jul 6, 2015 12:56am Jul 6, 2015 12:56am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Schaeuble is now Germany's most popular politician.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,973
  • Jul 6, 2015 12:58am Jul 6, 2015 12:58am
Yanis....gone....???

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/

"And I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,974
  • Jul 6, 2015 1:01am Jul 6, 2015 1:01am
Quoting The Fool
OMG US Women vs Japan...please won't someone stop it?....omg.....
USA!

Didnt realize Yanis had a blog?! Maybe I've been living under a rock.

Does Obama have a blog? haha
  • #135,975
  • Jul 6, 2015 1:08am Jul 6, 2015 1:08am
haha Varoufakis quits and the euro pops 50 pips....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,976
  • Jul 6, 2015 1:28am Jul 6, 2015 1:28am
Quoting The Fool
Yanis....gone....??? http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/ "And I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride."
Irresponsible asshole. My prediction a) is: he is in no way gone, but will continue to regale us with new daily interviews. Only that now he will say: if I still was in power, everything would be alright by now. Prediction b): he will get a very well endowed consultancy-contract with the finance ministry, payable in USD....

LD
Fail better.
  • #135,977
  • Jul 6, 2015 1:39am Jul 6, 2015 1:39am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Irresponsible asshole.
haha he will retire to one of his villas by the sea with his heiress wife, being a hard core commie is pretty rough....& I am so jealous....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,978
  • Jul 6, 2015 2:14am Jul 6, 2015 2:14am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Irresponsible asshole. My prediction a) is: he is in no way gone, but will continue to regale us with new daily interviews. Only that now he will say: if I still was in power, everything would be alright by now. Prediction b): he will get a very well endowed consultancy-contract with the finance ministry, payable in USD.... LD
He is destined to be head of Greek Central Bank in the next weeks and prepare the transition to Drachma. Will have some fun super annoying Mario too.
  • #135,979
  • Edited 3:57am Jul 6, 2015 2:36am | Edited 3:57am
Until low holds, the structure is similar to the double bottom at 21th & 23rd of April.

Interesting note:
- The two gaps opened higher, than at the close of the last weekly buy signal:

Weekly: Buy signal at 1.099xx (2015.05.24-29.) -> Look like that week is locked -> loaded with buy trades (?)

f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,980
  • Jul 6, 2015 3:17am Jul 6, 2015 3:17am
Quoting hathor
Until low holds, the structure is similar to the double bottom at 21th & 23rd of April. Interesting note: - The two gaps opened higher, than the close of the last weekly buy signal: Weekly: Buy signal at 1.099xx -> Look like that week is locked -> loaded with buy trades (?)
Agree with that buy signal and the number going forward, unfortunately the direct risk move (also 122 on the Yen) was all about those playing the event and tracking it closely so I personally missed the play.

1.1096 again trackable intraday and in play with mild correlated dollar index support at 96.25. There's no real momentum for the dollar (last NFP was slightly below par.) but with Euro risk in the background the fade doesn't look too bad. I'd like to think there's no reason for the ECB to be standing on the bid like they were last Monday.
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