What will happen to EUR after Sunday's Greek Referendum? | Forex Factory

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What will happen to EUR after Sunday's Greek Referendum?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 3, 2015 2:16pm Jul 3, 2015 2:16pm
Hello all trader, i want to use this thread for our trading discussion for EUR Greek referendum event, that will happen in less than 3 days later (since i dont see any thread that have specific discussion for Greek event, i try to start it )

ok i will start it with my own opinion

Quote
Greek referendum that will take place at 5th July 2015 will be a big moment for EU country since it will decide whether or not Greece is to accept the bailout conditions proposed jointly by the European Commission (EC), it's important not only for Greek but for EU too. In my opinion the best Greece can do is to accept EU proposal, and i think this referendum is a way to legalize it, dont you all remember scotland referendum? at first it's so clear that scotland will not be separated with Britain, but media make it more complex and confusing for many trader

so my point is Greece will accept it's proposal and EUR will go up at opening market next week

please dont take my opinion as a signal or to think my idea to convincing some people to buy or sell some pair. my first and mostly purpose of this thread is to share our opinion, and to nurture our thinking so hopefully we will get benefit in the future.

Anyone who have some opinion about this Greek referendum please share it with us, as a fellow trader. Thank you for everyone who have read it and comment it
  • #2
  • Jul 3, 2015 5:02pm Jul 3, 2015 5:02pm
My thoughts...

as usual at Greece, this referendum will be a mess... and EUR will dip sharply. But will skyrocket very quickly after.

  • #3
  • Jul 3, 2015 5:20pm Jul 3, 2015 5:20pm
Hello

i think they will vote to no ,eurusd will go deep down to 1.0980 or may be 1.0830 .

giving that no does not means that they are out of euro zone but this will be a push card for Greece officials i think they are doing good wooow no wonder Greece is the greatest knowledge country in the world .

all have a nice day
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #4
  • Jul 3, 2015 7:55pm Jul 3, 2015 7:55pm
this is their gen y's mentality. all i can say is good luck. whatever the outcome, with a mentality like this one will never succeed. im asian and i can tell you for a fact that the word "retirement" has never been in our dictionary.
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  • #5
  • Jul 3, 2015 9:50pm Jul 3, 2015 9:50pm
Quoting orabi
Hello i think they will vote to no ,eurusd will go deep down to 1.0980 or may be 1.0830 . giving that no does not means that they are out of euro zone but this will be a push card for Greece officials i think they are doing good wooow no wonder Greece is the greatest knowledge country in the world . all have a nice day
You had have wrong analisys on gold last week (william (FOMC member ) statement), oh no way
  • #6
  • Jul 3, 2015 9:52pm Jul 3, 2015 9:52pm
Quoting orabi
Hello i think they will vote to no ,eurusd will go deep down to 1.0980 or may be 1.0830 . giving that no does not means that they are out of euro zone but this will be a push card for Greece officials i think they are doing good wooow no wonder Greece is the greatest knowledge country in the world . all have a nice day
You'd had wrong analisys on gold last week (william (FOMC member ) statement), oh no way
  • #7
  • Edited 10:44pm Jul 3, 2015 10:30pm | Edited 10:44pm
greece vote YES = eur usd will go down.
greece vote NO = eur usd will up (maybe)
  • #8
  • Jul 4, 2015 2:07am Jul 4, 2015 2:07am
Quoting Bicarus
this is their gen y's mentality. all i can say is good luck. whatever the outcome, with a mentality like this one will never succeed. im asian and i can tell you for a fact that the word "retirement" has never been in our dictionary. {image}
It is very easy to criticize without knowing the truth
Although I believe that the Eastern philosophies do not contain this

anyway , your nick bicarus became from greek word icarus, why use this word and dont use the retirement word?

thanks for your support
  • #9
  • Jul 4, 2015 2:09am Jul 4, 2015 2:09am
Quoting Ksth
greece vote YES = eur usd will go down. greece vote NO = eur usd will up (maybe)
i think opposite
greece YES =EUR strong
greece NO= EUR weak
  • #10
  • Jul 4, 2015 2:31am Jul 4, 2015 2:31am
Quoting Bicarus
this is their gen y's mentality. all i can say is good luck. whatever the outcome, with a mentality like this one will never succeed. im asian and i can tell you for a fact that the word "retirement" has never been in our dictionary. {image}

this letter is all with greek words

if you want dont use it

«Kyrie, I eulogize the archons of the Panethnic Numismatic Thesaurus and the Oecumenical Trapeza for the orthodoxy of their axioms methods and policies, although there is an episode of cacophony of the Trapeza with Hellas. With enthusiasm we dialogue and synagonize at the synods of our didymous Organizations in which polymorphous economic ideas and dogmas are analyzed and synthesized. Our critical problems such as the numismatic plethora generate some agony and melancholy. This phenomenon is charateristic of our epoch. But, to my thesis we have the dynamism to program therapeutic practices as a prophylaxis from chaos and catastrophe. In parallel a panethnic unhypocritical economic synergy and harmonization in a democratic climate is basic. I apologize for my eccentric monologue. I emphasize my eucharistia to your Kyrie to the eugenic and generous American Ethnos and to the organizers and protagonists of this Ampitctyony and the gastronomic symposia»....

Kyrie, It is Zeus” anathema on our epoch for the dynamism of our economies and the heresy of our economic methods and policies that we should agonize the Scylla of numismatic plethora and the Charybdis of economic anaemia. It is not my idiosyncrasy to be ironic or sarcastic, but my diagnosis would be that politicians are rather cryptoplethorists. Although they emphatically stigmatize numismatic plethora, they energize it through their tactics and practices. Our policies have to be based more on economic and less on political criteria. Our gnomon has to be a metron between political, strategic and philanthropic scopes. Political magic has always been anti-economic. In an epoch characterized by monopolies, oligopolies, monophonies, monopolistic antagonism and polymorphous inelasticities, our policies have to be more orthological. But this should not be metamorphosed into plethorophobia, which is endemic among academic economists. Numismatic symmetry should not hyper-antagonize economic acme. A greater harmonization between the practices of the economic and numismatic archons is basic. Parallel to this, we have to synchronize and harmonize more and more our economic and numismatic policies panethnically. These scopes are more practicable now, when the prognostics of the political and economic barometer are halcyonic. The history of our didymus organizations in this sphere has been didactic and their gnostic practices will always be a tonic to the polyonymous and idiomorphous ethnical economies. The genesis of the programmed organization will dynamize these policies. Therefore, I sympathize, although not without criticism on one or two themes, with the apostles and the hierarchy of our organs in their zeal to program orthodox economic and numismatic policies, although I have some logomachy with them. I apologize for having tyrannized you with my Hellenic phraseology. In my epilogue, I emphasize my eulogy to the philoxenous autochthons of this cosmopolitan metropolis and my encomium to you, Kyrie, and the stenographers....
  • #11
  • Jul 4, 2015 4:31am Jul 4, 2015 4:31am
This referendum will cause a lot of volatility on the market and on Sunday, the could open with another gap but this one will be a huge gap.
  • #12
  • Jul 4, 2015 6:12am Jul 4, 2015 6:12am
Quoting dimdel
{quote} i think opposite greece YES =EUR strong greece NO= EUR weak
Yes that's exactly what i think, in last sunday when EU try to abandon Greece the market seems to punish it by make euro more weak.

Quoting Francgoz
This referendum will cause a lot of volatility on the market and on Sunday, the could open with another gap but this one will be a huge gap.
The gap would be more huge than last monday for sure, the question is which direction is it will be
  • #13
  • Jul 4, 2015 6:49am Jul 4, 2015 6:49am
hi guys ...its a simple phenomenon ...if greece moves away from eurozone ....euro will fall ...there will be a gap down clearly ....if greece doesnt move away from eurozone .....it is treated as better than the forecast and it is good for euro ...there might be fall to start off but it will retrace back soon
  • #14
  • Jul 4, 2015 10:26am Jul 4, 2015 10:26am
Quoting shirotama
{quote} Yes that's exactly what i think, in last sunday when EU try to abandon Greece the market seems to punish it by make euro more weak. {quote} The gap would be more huge than last monday for sure, the question is which direction is it will be
You might be both wrong
If NO = short term spike agains the euro but then manipulation by SNB to diminish the impact, followed by euro recovering, then the kabuki theater continues, there is no referendum to leave the Euro until a deal is agreed upon

If YES = Market already assumed yes, hence the euro recovered, maybe 200 pips for the euro, but in general all the euro leading indicators are negative or flat, and whatever happens the current greek government will be dissolved, they said they would quit, then we go back to square one, maybe this time with more crazies like golden dawn, who would vote for previous parties like pasok who did nothing, at least Tsipras and Motherfakis have been honest about the situation, that it is unsustainable...

But to shut up the euro fanatics:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sto...eat-2015-07-02
  • #15
  • Jul 4, 2015 10:43am Jul 4, 2015 10:43am
Quoting shirotama
{quote} Yes that's exactly what i think, in last sunday when EU try to abandon Greece the market seems to punish it by make euro more weak. {quote} The gap would be more huge than last monday for sure, the question is which direction is it will be
If its downside gap then it will be hugeIf its upside gap then it will not much more
  • #16
  • Jul 5, 2015 6:42am Jul 5, 2015 6:42am
i think if greek vote no
be careful it will make euro up
this is my opinion
onorebate
  • #17
  • Jul 5, 2015 12:50pm Jul 5, 2015 12:50pm
i think in both cases euro will go down...
why.... that i really dont know.... just my sixth sense....
  • #18
  • Jul 5, 2015 2:36pm Jul 5, 2015 2:36pm
Exit polls showing 61% for a no but EU is trading at 1100 - around 100 pip gap so far...
  • #19
  • Jul 5, 2015 4:11pm Jul 5, 2015 4:11pm
Quoting shirotama
Hello all trader, i want to use this thread for our trading discussion for EUR Greek referendum event, that will happen in less than 3 days later (since i dont see any thread that have specific discussion for Greek event, i try to start it ) ok i will start it with my own opinion {quote} please dont take my opinion as a signal or to think my idea to convincing some people to buy or sell some pair. my first and mostly purpose of this thread is to share our opinion, and to nurture our thinking so hopefully we will get benefit in the future. Anyone...
so, to sum up all the comment, no one knows what will happen and when it does no one knows what the result will be. Let's hedge.
Second thoughts, think I'll stay away for a short while til the guessing resolves out into some clear charts to trade.

Don't ask me, I have no idea what's going on.
  • #20
  • Jul 5, 2015 5:12pm Jul 5, 2015 5:12pm
@Gizzledonk

""so, to sum up all the comment, no one knows what will happen and when it does no one knows what the result will be. Let's hedge.
Second thoughts, think I'll stay away for a short while til the guessing resolves out into some clear charts to trade.""

The best decision i think.... euro possible target 0.9950... but it may jump up to hit 1.12 again and it may come down again.... quite freaky the movement until july 20th decision.

I am with Gizzledonk to stay out of it till then...
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