Flag trading the trend

Hey, 'ras,

Having run many hundreds of detailed backtests in TradeStation over the years and holding the belief that manual backtests carry heavy-duty Confirmation Bias, I now forward test my ideas only, first in SIM, then live.... so no detailed backtest results for the Bund, as my method carries discretionary components.

It is indeed consistently profitable with "our" methods here, BUT my reason for going "back to the Bund" was the idea that it might be smarter & more consistent to trade a 10 lot with a 5 tick stop for smaller targets, than 1 + 1 or 2 + 2 for larger targets. However, I have been doing better with 6E (Euro futures), which is more likely to trend and produce greater returns.

I have tried having 4 instruments up, but realistically 2, possibly 3, is the max for my capabilities. 6E stays in and GBPAUD (a wide range pair I know well) makes a comeback. CL is best traded in the US session, and Gold is very much a "breakout" instrument, all imho of course. GBPAUD was picture perfect this morning and when it moves, often moves off the LO (as that's end of day for the Aussies, start of day for the Limeys), which is what I want :

Have a good weekend guys it was nice to have a little vacation time centered around a holiday week. Monday begins trading back to work 16 full trading days no Wednesday trading 3 hrs or less screen time. Also on zb i think i will do 6 tick stop 6 tick target less movable parts 70+% winners
adding zn also 10 yr bond it trades at 15.65 a tick

just finished backtesting jan-jun 2015 for cl for the 2nd time round: 131 wins, 56 losses, 77 b/e's giving 3320 ticks(not doubling lot size for 2nd trade)

from which:

Candle trades(continuation trades): 40 wins, 9 losses, 13 be's giving 1170 ticks
INDY trades: 10 wins, 6 losses, 12 b/e's giving 230 ticks
S/R trades: 62 wins, 30 losses, 44 b/e's giving 1470 ticks

from this sample expected return from candle trade is ~19 ticks, indy trade is ~ 8 ticks, and S/R trade is ~11 ticks

any way you look at it 553 ticks a month. 33200 with 1 contract not to bad for 6 months

Bored , leaving the bridge, t1 hit, t2 @ 152.88 basis H1/D1 SR.



2nd entry pullback to MA etc etc etc... just going to leave the trade on as today mkts are going who-knows-where.. & of course understanding the likely outcome is for c2 to hit b/e+1 stop (might hit before I finish typing).

"In other news..." I can't help feeling that it is totally unfair to blame the Greeks for their present predicament. Sure, their previous politicians and oligarchs have been totally corrupt in milking the system, but what's new about that ? Who lent them the billions which now ruin them ? Jawohl - mostly ze Germans - vot did zey zink zey vere doing ? With proper due diligence, they would have declined the low-interest loans that were available in Euros... OF COURSE the Greeks would borrow to the hilt... I'm just sayin'.... Edit : so I agree with Soros : Germany leave the Euro, have a very strong Deutschemark and therefore very expensive BMWs and Mercs, and the rest of the Eurozone can survive with a weaker currency etc...

Trade 1 tick from stopping out as I post.... ping !

indy gave b/e+1:

you were up 25 don't give back so much

yep frustrating Harold maybe up 10 revise sl to b/e+1, up 20 lock in 10, up 25 lock in 15, up 30 lock in 20 up above 30 lock in 25 within 4 of target lock in 30 to 35

yes

play of the day was zb:

zb doesn't seem to come back to 2b point

sold at 58

+40

nice one e

On the same move, on 13R, sold at 63 for +50.. gonna call this a good day...

zb had a few too

Nice to hear, that R13 is being used by others too!

bought at 51 ... stop to b/e + 1