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AUD/USD

  • #90,941
  • Jul 1, 2015 8:48am Jul 1, 2015 8:48am
Strong sell opportunity on long term (always manage aggresive the risk. (if the price rise above SL , setup nulified or adjusted to market conditions))


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Below the explanations why I consider short :

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #90,942
  • Jul 2, 2015 12:50am Jul 2, 2015 12:50am
Quoting alexpi
Taking a long at .7688 because the .7684 departure broke the 4H TL with an OHLC candle above it on the 1H. This is a half-assed zone since there was a lot of trading on the left but the RR is good so I'll try it. Leaving my lower limit since I'm not sure this will hold (not even 50%) Edit: On second though - nah. Out with +7 pips - I'll keep to my initial plan and not trade actively before the Greek referendum has passed. If my bottom gets triggered - it gets triggered. Otherwise passing. All the best everyone, see you in 5 days {image}

Deleting the buy limit. No point leaving it through NFP + the ugly H&S on 1D, the failure to go back to it before moving for the Daily 20EMA and the failure to make a higher high on the daily after the departure on Monday/Tuesday all make this trade obsolete

Gonna stick to this view
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post8345666

Take care
  • #90,943
  • Jul 2, 2015 1:32am Jul 2, 2015 1:32am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Deleting the buy limit. No point leaving it through NFP + the ugly H&S on 1D, the failure to go back to it before moving for the Daily 20EMA and the failure to make a higher high on the daily after the departure on Monday/Tuesday all make this trade obsolete Gonna stick to this view http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post8345666 Take care
I'd say a head and shoulders would only be valid in an up trend.
I'm flat.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #90,944
  • Jul 2, 2015 2:02am Jul 2, 2015 2:02am
AUDUSD seems to be waiting for stronger NFP data to decisively break below 0.7600, which if broken seems to open room for continuation of the downward trajectory.

On a decisive break below 0.7600, could be aiming for a drop below 0.7400 mark in the near-term.
  • #90,945
  • Edited 2:47am Jul 2, 2015 2:08am | Edited 2:47am
The pressure looks down to me. But it could be a longer term double bottom.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #90,946
  • Edited 5:24am Jul 2, 2015 5:21am | Edited 5:24am
When looking AU's monthly chart, it seems very bearish as the pair failed to retest the 38.2% (which is 0.797~0.8) retracement mid-between the highs and lows post GFC era. If the pair breaks 0.75, it may plummet to the 23.6% retracement which is 0.708-0.71.
Attached Image
  • #90,947
  • Edited 10:45am Jul 2, 2015 7:23am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting bogus
{quote} I'd say a head and shoulders would only be valid in an up trend. I'm flat.
Agreed. So waiting for the fakeout break of the neckline

Edit: Actually wait what??? Reverse H&S are valid in uptrends, H&S are valid in downtrends...
  • #90,948
  • Jul 2, 2015 7:47am Jul 2, 2015 7:47am
I'm surprised we reached 76 again.
  • #90,949
  • Jul 2, 2015 7:48am Jul 2, 2015 7:48am
it's going lower imo
  • #90,950
  • Jul 2, 2015 1:20pm Jul 2, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting raiders
it's going lower imo
I agree, this is a pullback atm.

Attached Image
  • #90,951
  • Jul 2, 2015 2:25pm Jul 2, 2015 2:25pm
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Agreed. So waiting for the fakeout break of the neckline Edit: Actually wait what??? Reverse H&S are valid in uptrends, H&S are valid in downtrends...
Correct. But that's not what you said...
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #90,952
  • Jul 2, 2015 3:46pm Jul 2, 2015 3:46pm
Quoting bogus
{quote} Correct. But that's not what you said...
I don't think I've said anything else.

What have I said according to you?

I don't really take pride in my ability to say what I want to say If you prefer just pm me so we don't spam this thread
  • #90,953
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:00pm Jul 2, 2015 4:00pm
just went short some more
  • #90,954
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:18pm Jul 2, 2015 5:18pm
Quoting raiders
just went short some more
Hi Raiders, just be mindful of the bullish flag pattern forming on the 15m chart, could very well pop to the upside.
  • #90,955
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:36pm Jul 2, 2015 5:36pm
extra tight sl
  • #90,956
  • Jul 2, 2015 8:52pm Jul 2, 2015 8:52pm
Quoting raiders
extra tight sl
Looks like we were right
  • #90,957
  • Jul 2, 2015 9:09pm Jul 2, 2015 9:09pm
Quoting venividivici
{quote} Looks like we were right
Hi5
not gong to hold anything past tonight because of the holiday weekend but I'm looking for more weakness next week
  • #90,958
  • Jul 2, 2015 9:10pm Jul 2, 2015 9:10pm
Quoting mrfigure
{quote} Hi Raiders, just be mindful of the bullish flag pattern forming on the 15m chart, could very well pop to the upside.
Oh, there I see the flag, how's that's working for you?

I see absolutely nothing that says anything other than to be short the AUD - not on the charts, not fundamentally

Even the Reserve Bank of Australia's, Governor Glenn Stevens said that he remained open to lowering interest rates further

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #90,959
  • Jul 2, 2015 9:26pm Jul 2, 2015 9:26pm
This thing is going to break down big time once we take out 0.7600 in earnest. Bad data on retail sales and trade deficit... meanwhile Chinese stocks continue the cliff diving. Big breakout coming here in AUDUSD
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #90,960
  • Jul 2, 2015 9:51pm Jul 2, 2015 9:51pm
atm it is holding 0.758 will it rebounce?
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