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  • #9,321
  • Jul 1, 2015 1:19pm Jul 1, 2015 1:19pm
Dough somewhat bereft of decent trading ideas at the moment ... . Full of boredom trades, the "I gotta put on a trade today" trades, or "fruity" permutation trades ("I'm putting on this twisted set up partly financed by another set up knowing that the probability of its blowing up in my face is 50/50" for a .42 credit) ... . Logging a high number of occurrences does you no good if each of the occurrences are steaming piles of wet, unmanageable cow dung ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,322
  • Jul 1, 2015 1:22pm Jul 1, 2015 1:22pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Dough somewhat bereft of decent trading ideas at the moment ... . Full of boredom trades, the "I gotta put on a trade today" trades, or "fruity" permutation trades ("I'm putting on this twisted set up partly financed by another set up knowing that the probability of its blowing up in my face is 50/50" for a .42 credit) ... . Logging a high number of occurrences does you no good if each of the occurrences are steaming piles of wet, unmanageable cow dung ... .
And just as I posted that, the ordinarily fruity Shark-Jeev finally puts on a mechanical weekly SPY IC ... albeit a little late to the game: IVR's been higher in the past couple of days than today ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,323
  • Edited 2:32pm Jul 1, 2015 2:18pm | Edited 2:32pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} no, was $109/$108, filled for $0.07, death slide starts at $106.80 +/-, 7c to pay 65c+ with a lucky finish, ax me how it did in 38dte...
re: TLT diagonal, I am looking for TLT to move down <$10 in July, and I see that is what it did in April......looking at other bearish trades in TLT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-01_TLT.png Size: 150 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,324
  • Jul 1, 2015 2:23pm Jul 1, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Dough somewhat bereft of decent trading ideas at the moment ... . .
I think lots of traders tend to freeze when monster moves are rumored, I know I do. I would rather trade something I can estimate moves on. Catching a big move when you expect it and trade accordingly is great, too, but it might be a problem, obviously, if you are trading non-directionally at the same time

I mostly went into cash as the Greek "deadline" started coming into view.....I think that was good....I kinda feel the same way about NFP tomorrow - let's see if that tips the market's hand a bit.

Is a good NFP now good news or bad news....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,325
  • Jul 1, 2015 2:31pm Jul 1, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting The Fool
looking at other bearish trades in TLT
TLT condor credit is not worth my meager margin
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,326
  • Jul 1, 2015 2:53pm Jul 1, 2015 2:53pm
the $38.5/$38 puts $0.07 debit spread for this week expiry (shown above) is now worth $0.34...I didn't make the open, I'm sure it was more debit then, so I didn't trade it - but UVXY crashed like I knew it would. If you like to gamble, lots of opps on UVXY and VXX weekly options.

....UVXY dropped $1 in the last minutes, spread @ $0.40....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,327
  • Jul 1, 2015 9:44pm Jul 1, 2015 9:44pm
GLD has dropped back to 112 ... . With an IVR rank of 17 and with a modestly bullish sentiment from here (110's about the yearly low), I'm going for an Aug 21 104/110 short put vert for 1.05 credit (POP 68%; BE 108.95).

The yearly low is slightly south of 110, so the BE leaves me with a little room to maneuver or get out for scratch if I have to ... .

In all likelihood, that will be my week if that gets filled ... . Keeping quite a bit of powder dry for post-Greek referendum shenanigans ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,328
  • Jul 1, 2015 9:53pm Jul 1, 2015 9:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} TLT condor credit is not worth my meager margin
I looked at a bunch of strategy variations for TLT trying to eek out 1.00 + ... . I thought about going IC uber wide (like 6 strikes out) on the long call/puts, but the set up would've eaten up too much BP, which I'd rather save for something else or just keep sidelined.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,329
  • Jul 1, 2015 9:59pm Jul 1, 2015 9:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I think lots of traders tend to freeze when monster moves are rumored, I know I do. I would rather trade something I can estimate moves on. Catching a big move when you expect it and trade accordingly is great, too, but it might be a problem, obviously, if you are trading non-directionally at the same time I mostly went into cash as the Greek "deadline" started coming into view.....I think that was good....I kinda feel the same way about NFP tomorrow - let's see if that tips the market's hand a bit. Is a good NFP now good news or bad news....?...
Got down to about 25%, then started to dip my toe (then my foot and then my whole leg) in on the SPY/IWM/DIA vol pop, and I'm back up to around 50% in. May come back to bite me ... .

Now I just need to be patient and let IV contraction/time decay work their magic ... . One thing's for certain, though -- something's going to expire worthless ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,330
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:00pm Jul 1, 2015 10:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I think lots of traders tend to freeze when monster moves are rumored, I know I do. I would rather trade something I can estimate moves on. Catching a big move when you expect it and trade accordingly is great, too, but it might be a problem, obviously, if you are trading non-directionally at the same time I mostly went into cash as the Greek "deadline" started coming into view.....I think that was good....I kinda feel the same way about NFP tomorrow - let's see if that tips the market's hand a bit. Is a good NFP now good news or bad news....?...
Making trades isn't the hardest part ... . Sitting on your hands is ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,331
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:17pm Jul 1, 2015 10:17pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I looked at a bunch of strategy variations for TLT trying to eek out 1.00 + ... . I thought about going IC uber wide (like 6 strikes out) on the long call/puts, but the set up would've eaten up too much BP, which I'd rather save for something else or just keep sidelined.
I think short TLT is still a gimme, although an eye at the charts will let you know a lot of that water is already under the bridge. Still, I'd bet Greek default & Grexit, if that's what we get, might bring the safe haven flow a bit this summer, but more likely things will blow over, earnings will be good, and stocks will try to rally against the Fed Sep rate hike headwind - a recipe for sideways to slowly down markets, m/l. But bonds will likely keep sliding, I bet TLT will be trading well under $110 in August...

not much premium in it though, so that's why I am chancing time spreads. The super bear way would be to finance long calendars or diagonals with far otm credit spreads.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,332
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:21pm Jul 1, 2015 10:21pm
Quoting The Fool
the $38.5/$38 puts $0.07 debit spread for this week expiry (shown above) is now worth $0.34...I didn't make the open, I'm sure it was more debit then, so I didn't trade it - but UVXY crashed like I knew it would. If you like to gamble, lots of opps on UVXY and VXX weekly options. ....UVXY dropped $1 in the last minutes, spread @ $0.40....
this mofo went $0.07 to $0.66 (and it ain't done), fml, I fully wanted to trade it but slept thru the open....hey, who knows, maybe I'll live long enough to see another VIX spike....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,333
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:34pm Jul 1, 2015 10:34pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Dough somewhat bereft of decent trading ideas at the moment .......
those guys might all be at the lake house. Volume has been a lot better the last week, but it should fall off a cliff tomorrow...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,334
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:48pm Jul 1, 2015 10:48pm
Quoting The Fool
I bet TLT will be trading well under $110 in August... not much premium in it though, so that's why I am chancing time spreads. The super bear way would be to finance long calendars or diagonals with far otm credit spreads.
If the Fed pulls it out and gets the first one done in Sep, with a promise of a 2nd before the year is over, then ^TYX might overshoot > 3.75% (we sit at 3.25% high this week) - and that would put us into $107.xx territory
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,335
  • Jul 1, 2015 11:03pm Jul 1, 2015 11:03pm
some interesting spread opps on /ZB, not sure if I could fill the Aug fly for so cheap, though - and might be asking for too much a move in too few days. But I show for fun. I have heard more than one old hand declare that trading bond futures is the easiest trade....& I see Sosnoff scalping /ZB often....maybe a better choice than TLT....?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-01_zb.png Size: 59 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,336
  • Jul 2, 2015 1:28am Jul 2, 2015 1:28am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} If the Fed pulls it out and gets the first one done in Sep, with a promise of a 2nd before the year is over, then ^TYX might overshoot > 3.75% (we sit at 3.25% high this week) - and that would put us into $107.xx territory
I love cheap calendars, but with time spreads, you get what you pay for. Paying $0.35 for a 1 month spread gets you a profit zone almost $15 wide.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-01_tltt.png Size: 60 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,337
  • Jul 2, 2015 9:59am Jul 2, 2015 9:59am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
GLD has dropped back to 112 ... . With an IVR rank of 17 and with a modestly bullish sentiment from here (110's about the yearly low), I'm going for an Aug 21 104/110 short put vert for 1.05 credit (POP 68%; BE 108.95). The yearly low is slightly south of 110, so the BE leaves me with a little room to maneuver or get out for scratch if I have to ... . In all likelihood, that will be my week if that gets filled ... . Keeping quite a bit of powder dry for post-Greek referendum shenanigans ... .
GLD spread got filled 30 seconds into the open ... . I'll take that one off at 50% profit if I get a chance; has a tendency to pop and drop ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,338
  • Jul 2, 2015 10:11am Jul 2, 2015 10:11am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I love cheap calendars, but with time spreads, you get what you pay for. Paying $0.35 for a 1 month spread gets you a profit zone almost $15 wide. {image}
Calendar spreads are something I need to build into my repertoire ... . I anticipate some sitting on my hands a good deal of the time between now and mid-July expiration, a good time to review some TastyTrade vid on the topic ... .

Let the hand sitting begin ... (wait for it) ... now! Happy 4th, everyone ... . Good luck on that referendum, Greece ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,339
  • Jul 2, 2015 12:29pm Jul 2, 2015 12:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} this mofo went $0.07 to $0.66 (and it ain't done), fml, I fully wanted to trade it but slept thru the open....hey, who knows, maybe I'll live long enough to see another VIX spike....?
hey, like maybe next week? UVXY up 15% today - the aftermath of the Greek referendum will shine a light on the haircuts - could be ugly...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,340
  • Jul 2, 2015 12:56pm Jul 2, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hey, like maybe next week? UVXY up 15% today - the aftermath of the Greek referendum will shine a light on the haircuts - could be ugly...
Hi TF.

IMO:
DAX dropped 6% on Monday on Greece, BUT bounced back hard. Similar was on US indices, drop than bounce. Drop would be in overnight session, so if you can't catch that, you can fade it after. Short vol plays are going to be nice... IF VIX goes over 19/20, go long SVXY or XIV (if you are afraid of shorting UVXY, but that can be done by selling call spreads, also).
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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