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  • #9,301
  • Jun 29, 2015 3:31pm Jun 29, 2015 3:31pm
Wow ... . What a day. Need to simmer down a bit the latter part of this week and calmly put on my weekly 45 DTE SPY/DIA/IWM trade when Aug 14 weeklies become available, assuming the vol is still there ... . Tomorrow may naturally be a whole different story ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,302
  • Jun 29, 2015 9:58pm Jun 29, 2015 9:58pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Wow ... . What a day. Need to simmer down a bit the latter part of this week and calmly put on my weekly 45 DTE SPY/DIA/IWM trade when Aug 14 weeklies become available, assuming the vol is still there ... . Tomorrow may naturally be a whole different story ... .
And ... why do earnings plays when SPY/DIA/IWM IVR are all above 70 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,303
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:53pm Jun 29, 2015 10:53pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to fill a Jul puts $202/$200 for $0.31 credit --- $202 is 24 deltas........omg could we roll green b4 the close.....fml
jumped the gun here, it seems, may roll down with a small loss Tues if I get the chance. But we'll see. I wonder if the market shot its wad on the Greece default fear? Futures are a touch green overnight, but it still looks like there will be no deal for Greece.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,304
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:54pm Jun 29, 2015 10:54pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} And ... why do earnings plays when SPY/DIA/IWM IVR are all above 70 ... .
indeed, good IC weather....I still want to see what the Greek dealio is tho....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,305
  • Edited 8:55am Jun 30, 2015 12:45am | Edited 8:55am
Quoting The Fool
I wonder if the market shot its wad on the Greece default fear? Futures are a touch green overnight, but it still looks like there will be no deal for Greece.
Asian indices are all up, we'll see what Europe does. After all the buildup to a default, we get a relief rally anyway? Did you really think JY was gonna let us sweat thru the 4th of July?

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,306
  • Jun 30, 2015 2:07am Jun 30, 2015 2:07am
another 10% swinger in Shanghai
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,307
  • Edited 1:03pm Jun 30, 2015 9:43am | Edited 1:03pm
trying to fill a TLT Aug1/Aug puts diagonal for $0.07, a bet we keep rolling towards a ffr this year, September, and bonds keep falling....

.....that's $108/$107, not sure if it ever filled
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,308
  • Jun 30, 2015 4:54pm Jun 30, 2015 4:54pm
Against my better judgment, threw on a couple high vol IC's today in DIA, IWM, and TLT ... . Volatility is going to crush back down in the indices at some point, and I want to take advantage of it while I can. Don't know how long DIA and SPY are going to hold onto their 70+ IV ranks; they were south of 20 last week and dawdled around for weeks below that ... .

For me, SPY's got a sweet spot right now for short call verts where the BE on the set up is between 213 and 214 (IWM and DIA have similar areas where the historical highs are at). I'm comfortable right now that we won't see that level again for a bit ("a bit" is a relative term) ... . With short put verts, I'm placing those at or below the 1 SD, naturally fearful of the possibility that when and if SPY/DIA/IWM cave, they will cave quite hard ... . I'm frankly still second guessing myself on whether to put short put verts on at all in the indices and whether I should look for long delta elsewhere (TLT being the obvious choice). I know that this has been a BTFD market for ages, but that has gotta end at some point ... .

* * *

I was talking with a friend from work who recently met with a "professional" financial advisor, the goal being to rebalance his 401(k) portfolio. He knows I "dabble" in the markets and wondered what I thought of what this advisor was saying; it was the standard fare: shoot for set percentages in bonds, large-, mid-, small-cap broad-based U.S. index funds, and a bit in international equities funds. Basically, he would be starting to ease/rebalance into these broad index-based funds at current levels. This was a "professional," mind you, advising someone to go long at or near the highest prices ever. In ... f'in ... sane.

Which is why 401(k)'s suck right now: you've got two choices: (1) go long; (2) park it. I parked it, like, six months ago at around SPX 2000. Can't imagine shifting it back into gear any time soon ... . I lived through the dot-com bubble and the Great Recession; no way am I going to go through another 40% drawdown in my 401(k) between now and retirement ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,309
  • Jun 30, 2015 5:10pm Jun 30, 2015 5:10pm
Quoting The Fool
another 10% swinger in Shanghai {image}
Looked at FXI again for a play ... . If U.S. markets are "irrational," Chinese markets are in ... f'in ... double bubbly ... sane. The price of options on the call side at 1 SD (52 DTE) exceed those of the put side, leading me to believe that speculators are betting that this market is going to continue up. Seriously?

If I could convince myself that I should trade volatility and not direction here, I'd probably bite ... . A 41/51 short strangle, Aug 21 expiry: .91 credit. Other, equally profitable, less crazy, high vol plays elsewhere ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,310
  • Jun 30, 2015 10:26pm Jun 30, 2015 10:26pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to fill a TLT Aug1/Aug puts diagonal for $0.07, a bet we keep rolling towards a ffr this year, September, and bonds keep falling.... .....that's $108/$107, not sure if it ever filled
no, was $109/$108, filled for $0.07, death slide starts at $106.80 +/-, 7c to pay 65c+ with a lucky finish, ax me how it did in 38dte...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,311
  • Jun 30, 2015 10:46pm Jun 30, 2015 10:46pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} no, was $109/$108, filled for $0.07, death slide starts at $106.80 +/-, 7c to pay 65c+ with a lucky finish, ax me how it did in 38dte... {image}
so, short a 10 lot Aug1/Aug put diaq, should I try to ride that margin free on a call diag? I could do a 5-lot $2 spread, $122/$124, for 13c credit, helps me reduce cost basis of the put spread....but puts me on the death slide >$123....is it worth it?

idk, I think we are gonna see bonds continue to fall into the first ffr hike, I am looking at other bearish plays on TLT....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,312
  • Edited 11:40pm Jun 30, 2015 11:03pm | Edited 11:40pm
Greece defaults, futures rock out, back to the shack, mofos were gonna throw a relief rally party anyway, hey we bought all this beer, I am looking for SPY $210 next week

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,313
  • Jun 30, 2015 11:58pm Jun 30, 2015 11:58pm
gotta get up to get down

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,314
  • Jul 1, 2015 1:40am Jul 1, 2015 1:40am
But nothing beats Sumos' man titties rocking to "Hash Pipe":

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Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,315
  • Jul 1, 2015 4:13am Jul 1, 2015 4:13am
Quoting The Fool
Greece defaults, futures rock out, back to the shack, mofos were gonna throw a relief rally party anyway, hey we bought all this beer, I am looking for SPY $210 next week
or $210 Thursday -- Tsipras caves, say the tweets, and /ES pops 10+ pts in a few minutes....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,316
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:33am Jul 1, 2015 10:33am
Quoting The Fool
trying to fill a Jul puts $202/$200 for $0.31 credit --- $202 is 24 deltas........omg could we roll green b4 the close.....fml
this IC'd against former $216/$218 calls, which I bought out for 5c, looking to IC off the puts now, running out of time, holding out for another green day tomorrow, today I see $213/$215 calls for $0.27 - tempted, but will wait
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,317
  • Jul 1, 2015 11:41am Jul 1, 2015 11:41am
Quoting The Fool
Greece defaults, futures rock out, back to the shack, mofos were gonna throw a relief rally party anyway, hey we bought all this beer, I am looking for SPY $210 next week ...
/ES bounced of daily sma200 yesterday... the trade of the day... long from ~2050
I just scalped a bit... since my brain wasn't on working temperature, otherwise I would sell some put spreads, but never-mind... Boring PA now, but DAX was absolute darling today in US premarket time.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,318
  • Jul 1, 2015 12:09pm Jul 1, 2015 12:09pm
Put as much as I dare in SPY/DIA/IWM IC's to take advantage of the high volatility, which my guess will slowly seep out as we move toward the Friday, half-day market ... . It's looking to like legging into IC's is the way to go; quicker fills on one side then the other than the whole thing as a package ... . I dicked around with a 51 DTE DIA IC 160/164/186/182 for for like two hours yesterday as price danced around at the mid for the whole package ... . Laziness, really, on my part ... .

Gotsa to me more mindful of commissions. Starting off, I just kind of blew it off. Better stop doing that:

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The answer is to wait until the legs are .05 or below (no commissions) (purely a patience thing) or look for setup's that are 1.00 +. Was awfully tough to get a 1.00 + out of the index setup's over the past several weeks ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,319
  • Jul 1, 2015 12:25pm Jul 1, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
.. . It's looking to like legging into IC's is the way to go; quicker fills on one side then the other than the whole thing as a package ...
Absolutely. Doing it separately, spread + spread is better.

Quoting ZebraSquirl
... Gotsa to me more mindful of commissions. ...
Comms are a bitch, really. Only solution I found for them is to get into the trade ONLY if the credit is fat. Tough thing to find, so I have switched to /ES futures options. Bid/ask spreads are wider than on SPY, but liquidity is there, and comms are the same, but one spread is like 5 on the SPY. So, if I take $300 credit on one spread, I will pay $2.82 comms for that, no problem...

Other than that, I have abandoned trading individual names, and will trade only earnings trades on selected group of stocks, like maybe 10 of them. I don't have enough time to dedicate to explore "breath" of each individual stock, and many more risks are there.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,320
  • Jul 1, 2015 12:57pm Jul 1, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Absolutely. Doing it separately, spread + spread is better. {quote} Comms are a bitch, really. Only solution I found for them is to get into the trade ONLY if the credit is fat. Tough thing to find, so I have switched to /ES futures options. Bid/ask spreads are wider than on SPY, but liquidity is there, and comms are the same, but one spread is like 5 on the SPY. So, if I take $300 credit on one spread, I will pay $2.82 comms for that, no problem... Other than that, I have abandoned trading individual names, and will trade only earnings...
At some point I'll move to trading futures ... . These commissions are ridiculous. That being said, I didn't trade very efficiently in June ... . I doinked around with too many earnings plays (some of which were great, some of which were totally not worth it). Earnings plays are either immediately great or immediately horrible; the immediately horrible ones you seem to be managing for the next 3-6 expiration cycles, tying up buying power; managing losers is part of the game, yeah, but not my idea of fun. Truth be told, I only had one earnings play that went horribly awry: KORS ... . I had to go inverted, continued to sell short calls for a bit of profit, eventually got assigned (market price was like 10 bucks below my short put strike), and then took the hit, dumping the stock virtually immediately ... .

The least nerve-wracking approach is to go for plays in the indices and in sector ETF's ... . Going forward, I'm pretty much set on just trading TLT and SPY/DIA/IWM first, sector ETF's should vol appear in them, and will only look to earnings plays if I have absolutely nothing on in any expiration ... . To me, they're essentially, "I got nothing on, I'm bored" trades ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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