Reliable method to know when a "trend" has started?

Is there any sure fire method that signifies that a trend had began? Even if its a late confirmation, I am looking for a indicator, method to determine that a trend has started. Any suggestions? Looking the 1h, 4h or daily tf's. Thanks in advance!

trends exist 20-30% of the time, why not learn the over 70-80%, because when trends occur they become easier to find ?

hello
what you are asking for is the answer for trading profitable.

i will answer the question you ask fully but the mechanics behind it are something else and you don't ask for them in your question anyway.
here it is: a up trend begins when a lower top get broken, a down trend begins when a higher bottom gets broken.
this is the change of trend and this is the spot you want to begin trading...in the beginning of the new trend...
M5 is perfect for intraday fishing
indicators dont work here
i bet u red this in the big books

Bullish - series of higher highs and higher lows (HHHL)
Bearish - series of lower highs and lower lows (LHLL)

1. So by COGSx86 reasoning, if the market is not trending (consolidating) two thirds of the time then a break out of the consolidation, in any direction, on any time frame, could signal the beginning of a trend. This is only one method.

Larger range and an increased volume of upswing compared to the subsequent downswing (pullback) can be an indicator of an up trend.
If you are happy with the indicator methods, check out the dashboards threads at ff, they seem to be doing a fine job.
Cheers,
k

Price above moving average = uptrend
Price below moving average = downtrend
Is it important the value (period) of the moving average? Is it important the timeframe where you apply moving average?
What a bunch of confusion.
There is ton of trends, decide which trend you want to follow and buy above MA or sell below MA.

Alex

I always look for long term trend on weekly chart to get long term view then trade the impulses, which can go on for weeks, intraday until a correction or reversal. I don't use indicators just my eye, support & resistance & price.

Steer Clear of Moving Averages,

Moving average of 10 might indicate an uptrend
Moving average of 11 might indicate down trend

What about moving average periods of 9, 12, 13, 20, 40, 200? What makes a moving average significant, what makes it have any bearing on trend direction? What value of Moving Average would you justify using? Let not forget about the different types of Moving averages.

In my opinion t's an unjustifiable way to trade, but of course some people claim that Moving Averages work.

ultimately price action, uptrends and downtrends and pullbacks while these happen. although on the macd if you input 35,45,30 it looks pretty accurate but theres still something missing i cant put my finger on.

Is it really important what makes a moving average significant since you buy above MA and sell below MA?
Sometimes I see the glass half full and sometimes hall empty, yeah because I look at the glass without any tools.
We need tools to overtake our subjectivity.

Alex

moving averages, like all indicators are lagging indicators with no predictive qualities. They lag price, giving historical data and to be profitable you need to know where the market is going. The only thing that can tell you this is price because price is a leading indicator of all that is known. What we trade is the unknown blank space to the right of the chart.

Any that corresponds to some natural cycle of the market would actually make sense, for example the one spanning the 24 hours cycle. Translated into, say M15 tf, it would be a period of 96.
k

My friend, everyone has their own opinions and I appreciate that you are willing to discuss yours. In my honest opinion:
It is significant to know why you would use any tool to trade with, sure we use tools to define the market to see how it has moved. Do note that I used the word "has" and not present tense.

To me the Moving Average is useless; however there is an ideal value for a profitable Moving Average! The only problem is: the ideal profitable Moving Average value changes on Every New Bar. It's a lagging indicator that one can backtest with well but when applied to real trading most likely will cause difficulties.
A moving average of 10 might work today, but tomorrow may fail miserably, so tomorrow a trader might change the moving average to 20... 20 works great tomorrow but they day after that 20 fails.

But of course some people love to use it, but very few use it successfully

Godbless and Best of Luck my friend!
Rparm

Basically, I am not looking for a profitable trading system. I have one but with a big "asterisk" next to it. The big asterisk is I need to find a way to cut losses. I do not want to use a set "pip" price nor use price action because of stop hunts/false breaks. What I have noticed is though... the lagging nature of indicators are great for detecting stop hunts (indicators can often ignore them) or for a confirmation of a trend (late but often a highly probable confirmation) simply because of their lagging nature.

Basically, I am looking to use my own pa strategy and but use another strategy/method to complement or cut my losses. So using a secondary method, indicator or strategy... one that is quite good in confirming one of the two is the question. Even if its late, that's fine. I have noticed people sometimes have great strategies and/or indicators but they get you "into" the trade late. Strange enough, that's what I am seeking.

Example. Lets say I decide to enter a trade using strategy "A." I am in the trade and then follow strategy "B" and wait for "B" to either complement method "A" or for me to cut my losses. If strategy "B" shows itself to go against "A," then I simply cut my losses and move on.

I have noticed that I am getting better in catching the start or a pull back of a trend but I have big problems knowing when to cut my losses.

Thanks in advance.

Might sound out of place but to me the most reliable means to know a trend has started is the news, example reading the news can tell you Euro downtrend might have resumed, now limit your loss in case you are wrong.

You want to know when its ok to get on the trend and make profit without risking anything??? Every trade you make has risk. When you wait for confirmation you have typically passed the point where you get in early and have a lower risk high probability trade. If you wait for "confirmation" your risk is usually too high...

In Forex there is no such thing as surefire...

i have used this method to predict of data of economic figures it is very good

so lets look at non farm payroll

previous was 280 2 /8 = .25

so next will be 278.5 - 255 because it was 221 before it . low high then low

forecast is 231 . so better to be long in dollar from now


i want to discover more of it rules .


all have a nice day

Trend is one of the biggest problems in trading, even Gann had difficulties.

trend is subjective in many ways due to the fact of the time frames you deal in. your question should be refined to what time frame are trading against your 1 h, 4 h and daily , MAQ1ONE indicated is a start where , Bullish - series of higher highs and higher lows (HHHL) , Bearish - series of lower highs and lower lows (LHLL)

again you need to understand what your statement defines in relation to entry system, what is your base time frame you want to trade and what time frames are looking to use to view as longer term trends. if im assuming correctly, you trade in the hourly and looking for trend definitions on the 4 h and daily ?

as an example - monthly trend is up ( defined by a set of rules ) Monthly is the Boss in all cases, once this trend is established it is hard for it to be turned around in a instance.

Moving averages are good, but are delayed and again reflect a certain time frame, over years of testing this it is useful but lags and therefore can be dangerous to rely on - know your limits with it , its useful.

back to trend - there are two types I have found and seen that work the best,

1 trend based on price action / price system setup

Trend can be defined by variations of this ( price action ) it can be reflected in your system of entry - the logic is if your system is giving you an entry long then the basis of the overall can be measured is the trend is up , visa versa for short. If your long on your system, based on price action then if its defined well you should be able to use this in a ..... Using higher time frames - HTF with price action against your systems current time frame entry can provide an excellent means of trend identification .

2 trend based on algorithms

this one is complex in nature and for me has taken a great deal of time to perfect however the rewards are fantastic.
trend is dynamic and changes , identifying a change in trend or a time and price setup whereby when this occurs the trend changes .. this is seen in some Gann work and others who used this type of method.

when a certain time and price reflect the algorithms action you have a clear identifier of trend and from here until you get another indication the trend is in this mode/ direction
e.g
since the 1st of may 2014 the eur/usd has been a down trend , July 2015 is a key change in trend for eur/usd. this will be a big change this month, I don't predict the trend I just rely on the signal and trigger. this will create a setup and confirm a continued move downwards, or turn the trend around but the key is the change will occur this month based on the algorithm. all I have to is wait for the confirmation, my trades become less while the congestion occurs so I reduce my risk now and reduce trades to that of strong confirmations when the signal matches my triple A trade.

this then applies to your question on reducing risk knowing a trend to confirm and use while trading
hope this is helpful -

Trend exist 100% of time. It all depends from what perspective (=timeframe) are you looking at the chart.

not quite true, you can have a up trend, down trend and sideways trend. 3 trends can exist in any time frame. the bigger the time frame the less likely a sideways trend exists