Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 289 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,761
  • Edited 7:59pm Jun 26, 2015 7:30pm | Edited 7:59pm
Quoting sonigl
{quote} here is my explanation on chart... {image} thx & regards, sonigl
Your daily analysis seems plausible but of course we should also consider daily, weekly and monthly trends and positions in the curves at the very moment when price reaches any significant level. What's more, you might realize that our charts and hereby our levels are slightly different as your chart have 6 but mine has 5 candles per week as my daily candles are in tandem with New York open but yours probably open at local time thus having additional Sunday candles. In fact our charts will differ for any time frame above H1 because of this server time difference. That's one of the reasons why I prefer not to be 'to the pip' deterministic about my analyses but watch the price action a bit when approaching a significant level as everybody might see a slightly modified version of the same reality to act upon, even feeds and/or spreads will differ broker to broker time to time.
Trade what you see..
  • #5,762
  • Jun 26, 2015 11:15pm Jun 26, 2015 11:15pm
Quoting Chawl
{quote} Your daily analysis seems plausible but of course we should also consider daily, weekly and monthly trends and positions in the curves at the very moment when price reaches any significant level. What's more, you might realize that our charts and hereby our levels are slightly different as your chart have 6 but mine has 5 candles per week as my daily candles are in tandem with New York open but yours probably open at local time thus having additional Sunday candles. In fact our charts will differ for any time frame above H1 because of this...
hello chawl,

thanks for your comment and opinion... its just my analysis and i don't know where the price going to... I just make an analysis to know where is the limit of price movement and anticipation with my SL to prevent my loss. maybe your analysis right too... we're just make some predictions to make some $$$. let's learn by doing together to be understand of S&D holygrail . sorry if my english is not good.

regards,
sonigl
  • #5,763
  • Jun 27, 2015 8:30am Jun 27, 2015 8:30am
Quoting sonigl
{quote} hello chawl, thanks for your comment and opinion... its just my analysis and i don't know where the price going to... I just make an analysis to know where is the limit of price movement and anticipation with my SL to prevent my loss. maybe your analysis right too... we're just make some predictions to make some $$$. let's learn by doing together to be understand of S&D holygrail . sorry if my english is not good. regards, sonigl
U r welcome I see that you are not using Alfonso's MT4 template but I advice you to at least enable 50% candles in the indicator settings to see the bases easily, basing candles are the key to the method you know.
Trade what you see..
  • #5,764
  • Jun 30, 2015 6:31am Jun 30, 2015 6:31am
Hi Alfonso,

In the First Page of the Thread, you entered the Average Values for the Padding and the Wiggle Room for the H1 and H4 TFs. Which are these Values for the D1 TF?

Thanks
  • #5,765
  • Jun 30, 2015 2:47pm Jun 30, 2015 2:47pm
Quoting lakis071051
Hi Alfonso, In the First Page of the Thread, you entered the Average Values for the Padding and the Wiggle Room for the H1 and H4 TFs. Which are these Values for the D1 TF? Thanks
25 pips wiggle room for the majors and main cross pairs, no changes on padding. The exotics and indexes have a different one, each has a different value, it all changes with pip value and on the broker. An pair can have 300 pips of wiggle room, like S&P500 or Nasdaq on IC Markets.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,766
  • Jul 1, 2015 1:02am Jul 1, 2015 1:02am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} 25 pips wiggle room for the majors and main cross pairs, no changes on padding. The exotics and indexes have a different one, each has a different value, it all changes with pip value and on the broker. An pair can have 300 pips of wiggle room, like S&P500 or Nasdaq on IC Markets. Cheers, Alfonso
Thanks for the reply. Cheers, Emmanuel
  • #5,767
  • Jul 1, 2015 1:04am Jul 1, 2015 1:04am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} 25 pips wiggle room for the majors and main cross pairs, no changes on padding. The exotics and indexes have a different one, each has a different value, it all changes with pip value and on the broker. An pair can have 300 pips of wiggle room, like S&P500 or Nasdaq on IC Markets. Cheers, Alfonso
Thanks for the reply. Cheers, Emmanuel
  • #5,768
  • Jul 1, 2015 1:49am Jul 1, 2015 1:49am
Hi traders,

I would suggest to use ATR value instead of fixed pip value.
There is a lot of indicators that calculate ATR and pip value of ATR times desired coefficient.
I prefer value of period 7 ATR times 1.2 as the wiggle room value.

For those not fammiliar with ATR, it is Average Trading Range what means average candle size HL of last in my example 7 candles.
Price action tends to overshot levels and when it overshots more then ATR value, we are usually wrong and it is time to let the trade go.

This way we can adjust our wiggle room based on market volatility period and avoid some unnecessary losses to see the trade playing out after we got stopped.
Cheers
  • #5,769
  • Jul 1, 2015 6:10am Jul 1, 2015 6:10am
Quoting digitalko
Hi traders, I would suggest to use ATR value instead of fixed pip value. There is a lot of indicators that calculate ATR and pip value of ATR times desired coefficient. I prefer value of period 7 ATR times 1.2 as the wiggle room value. For those not fammiliar with ATR, it is Average Trading Range what means average candle size HL of last in my example 7 candles. Price action tends to overshot levels and when it overshots more then ATR value, we are usually wrong and it is time to let the trade go. This way we can adjust our wiggle room based on...
You can use ATR if you want to, as long as you have tested those parameters. On majors and main cross pairs 25 pips works pretty well, I've tested those parameters thoroughly, an average value for SL protection is about 15-20% of the zone width.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,770
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:56am Jul 1, 2015 10:56am
hi..iam very2 new in supply and demand..
hope this forum can help me to understand what is supply and demand
  • #5,771
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:55am Jul 2, 2015 5:55am
Quoting Toxmoh
hi..iam very2 new in supply and demand.. hope this forum can help me to understand what is supply and demand
Welcome to the forum, take your time to read the 1st post and the latest webinars, there is a lot of information to sink in!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,772
  • Jul 6, 2015 6:12am Jul 6, 2015 6:12am
Monthly is down trend at demand. Maybe we can have a little correction.
Waiting for confirmation on the D.
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  • #5,773
  • Jul 6, 2015 12:37pm Jul 6, 2015 12:37pm
General question: Do you guys see spreads going insane at the S&D zones? What do you do about it, if anything?
  • #5,774
  • Jul 7, 2015 12:57am Jul 7, 2015 12:57am
Quoting PapaMack
General question: Do you guys see spreads going insane at the S&D zones? What do you do about it, if anything?
Sometimes spreads can go insane, sometimes they don't. Spreads are irrelevant after all, if the zone is good and valid as per your trading plan, you plan the trade and who cares about the spread? I never take it into account in my trading.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,775
  • Jul 7, 2015 12:58am Jul 7, 2015 12:58am
Quoting Bigotibor
Monthly is down trend at demand. Maybe we can have a little correction. Waiting for confirmation on the D. {image} {image}
What kind of confirmation are you waiting for? You want to go long at Monthly demand? Also remember we are in a clear downtrend on the Monthly chart.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,776
  • Jul 7, 2015 3:33am Jul 7, 2015 3:33am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Sometimes spreads can go insane, sometimes they don't. Spreads are irrelevant after all, if the zone is good and valid as per your trading plan, you plan the trade and who cares about the spread? I never take it into account in my trading. Cheers, Alfonso
Afonso,

I remember Seiden saying that if the spread widens then that's a good sign. This is because it widens to scare you out, since there is too much competition to buy at these prices.
  • #5,777
  • Jul 7, 2015 4:28am Jul 7, 2015 4:28am
Quoting PacnyTuH0
{quote} Afonso, I remember Seiden saying that if the spread widens then that's a good sign. This is because it widens to scare you out, since there is too much competition to buy at these prices.
I agree with that statement, but we're not discussing if the widened spreads are good or bad here We're talking about worrying about them or not. We should plan our trades on good levels, which will be the spread when price hits our entry? NO IDEA, I won't be in front of the screen anyway. We should set and forget my trades, so who cares about the spread? Makes sense?

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,778
  • Jul 7, 2015 4:29am Jul 7, 2015 4:29am

  1. GBP/CAD has broken up above previous higher timeframe supply zone. A Weekly Continuation Pattern has been formed, it's the one that caused the break of supply (see black dash line)
  2. Bullish TL is holding, D1 demand nested within Weekly demand.
  3. Potential D1 demand zone being created in the yellow zone.

Long bias on GBP/CAD

Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,779
  • Jul 7, 2015 4:30am Jul 7, 2015 4:30am

  1. AUD/USD is breaking lower after a few months respecting 0.7500 mark.
  2. New Daily supply zones have been created. Lower one is a potential D1 Continuation Pattern.
  3. 3 months, monthly, weekly and daily charts are down, very bearish bias, moreover after a breakout
  4. Breakout is part of a Monthly and 3 months Continuation Pattern short, so a strong drop is expected

Potential Daily supply if Weekly demand is taken out in yellow
Similar scenarios happening on other AUD cross pairs like AUD/SGD and others. Similar but inverse on GBP/AUD

Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,780
  • Jul 7, 2015 4:54pm Jul 7, 2015 4:54pm
But we are in a MN supply zone on GBP/CAD
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