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  • #135,861
  • Jun 30, 2015 8:42am Jun 30, 2015 8:42am
Quoting sisse
{quote} On correlated markets, all eyes on risk aversion underlyings. Gold which is sitting in KEY support in the W close (as expected with such a risk play) and is one of the tradable ones with Greece defaulting. Its a one way, non stop to 1250.xx (tradable) anything above will point to PANIC across the board. Bonds in the periphery. ​Although bonds has been relatively calm with all the Greek drama, all eyes on a spike in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland as a benchmark of potential contagion. Theoretically all checks are in place but now...
Hi sisse. Is there any way how to explain the gold move to the kew support? Is it due to the CBs interventions? I would expect exactly the opposite move just given the simple logic = risk =) rising gold, even though it seems to be wrong logic right now.
  • #135,862
  • Jun 30, 2015 8:46am Jun 30, 2015 8:46am
Quoting Lavanda
--> On VAT, sadly that's call a level playing field. In France, Spain and across the EU etc the VAT is the VAT for all industries the same Sorry, this is not truth. The VAT it's not the same for all the countries in all the industries or all the products...
For gaining a tax competitive advantage in a sector inside the EU?? I don't reckon there is any country in the EU with a differential tax in tourism?. The exceptions are usually medicine, basic food and education (books) but not in macro sectors ... whatever the case, shoot which ones are you talking about? ...


------------ --------------- -------------

In any case, strong opening range.... Was that the farewell rally in the euro? 1.124x holding London close is the only one I am tracking before revaluating positions...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,863
  • Jun 30, 2015 8:52am Jun 30, 2015 8:52am
Hoi, whole Greece issue is a joke from macro point of view. You can argue about technicalities all you want but on the first place:

1) Greece is a very small nation able to cause pretty big damage, as whole banking sector is out of collateral and already balancing on edge of blade. Is the domino effect and contagion what we fear, not Greece going bust.
2) EU is fking megarich economic block. US has invested heavy here.

So, with ECB pumping @ 60 Bn per month into banking sector, with all the bailouts you have seen @ 2008 (AIG 85Bn), do you really feel tiny Greece is a problem? Whole issue is mostly political. Due to 2008 crisis, many nationalistic/extremist governments were elected to lead European states. Now they are simply adressing their voters by tearing Europe apart, while in the meanwhile, we should do the exact opposite.

I think this is a chance for Europe to unite and progress. Let us admit whole EZ project was economically unjustified and unprepared. Maastricht criteria are a joke and noone is meeting them...so..ofc monetary union does not work, when not even the very basic principles of such a union are in place. Fiscal discipline is a joke, and I aint seeing no free flow of goods, capital and neither workforce. Am not saying we should progress under pressure and do some stupid fiscal union and European ministry of finance...but to progress slowly as this would be the very best in long term run. But there are many options how to stabilize the economy and considered Greece size, easy options, but all require EZ governments to unite (which brings me back to those extremist parties in charge now , sad really).

Like for example if ECB backstopped and guaranteed Greece debt. Compared to ECB regular expenses, it costs nothing and all it would do is stop IR from going up and locking Greece in debt spiral. Once interest rates are under controll, we can talk about repaying of debt. Am not even mentioning such a shocking options ECB+FED would actually buy some of that debt. Think also FED should participate in solving the crisis as it is in US very own interest to stabilise it here. Also we have ESM in place, not sure if it was meant for such occasions, but think kinda yes. And what about EFSF? I acknowledge all these options kinda imply states/taxpayers of Eurozone guaranteeing for Greece debt burden, but thats exactly what needs to be done.

If you wanna have a trade union, you should kinda expect you guarantee for members who traded bad. Unite or fall.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #135,864
  • Jun 30, 2015 8:55am Jun 30, 2015 8:55am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hi sisse. Is there any way how to explain the gold move to the kew support? Is it due to the CBs interventions? I would expect exactly the opposite move just given the simple logic = risk =) rising gold, even though it seems to be wrong logic right now.

  1. Market is loaded shorts in GOLD via FED hikes (since the FOMC).
  2. The risk event right now via Greece will open a very short term spike up and down if Greece default and no deal
  3. Before US opened today we got the confirmation that a new proposal is on the table for a last minute deal.
  4. In the last 30 minutes or so we keep receiving details on this new deal and everything is starting to look rosy again ...
  5. default no deal, short squeeze in gold fast leg to 128x.... any other scenario, just keep trading gold as normal (break 116x to unlock the leg to 1000[below] ) for the wave on HIKES later this summer ....

I hope it helps...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,865
  • Jun 30, 2015 9:01am Jun 30, 2015 9:01am
Quoting sisse
{quote} For gaining a tax competitive advantage in a sector inside the EU?? I don't reckon there is any country in the EU with a differential tax in tourism?. The exceptions are usually medicine, basic food and education (books) but not in macro sectors ... whatever the case, shoot which ones are you talking about? ... ------------ --------------- ------------- In any case, strong opening range.... Was that the farewell rally in the euro? 1.124x holding London close is the only one I am tracking before revaluating positions... sisse
The first % that appears, is the General. The second % ( and in certain countries there are four reduced kind of rates) is the reduced VAT. VAT is not the same in the general rate, and is very fun if you start reading the reduced. A reduced VAT can be applied to a whole industry or nearly a whole industry looking for getting advantages in prices and in order to develope local industries or areas like tourism, milk, certain agro-products,etc. It's very fun the reduced taxes in Ireland ,with five of them.

VAT rates[edit]
Different rates of VAT apply in different EU member states. The lowest standard rate of VAT throughout the EU is 15%, although member states can apply reduced rates of VAT to certain goods and services. Certain goods and services are required to be exempt from VAT (for example, postal services, medical care, lending, insurance, betting), and certain other goods and services to be exempt from VAT but subject to the ability of an EU member state to opt to charge VAT on those supplies (such as land and certain financial services). Input VAT that is attributable to exempt supplies is not recoverable.

JurisdictionRate (Standard)Rate (Reduced)Abbr.Name
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ustria.svg.png Austria20%12% or 10%MwSt. /USt.German: Mehrwertsteuer / Umsatzsteuer
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...vil%29.svg.png Belgium21%12% or 6%
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...lgaria.svg.png Bulgaria20%9%[35]ДДСBulgarian: Данък върху добавената стойност (Danăk vărhu dobavenata stojnost)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Cyprus.svg.png Cyprus19%[36]9% or 5%[35]ΦΠΑGreek: Φόρος Προστιθέμενης Αξίας (Fóros Prastithémenes Axías)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...public.svg.png Czech Republic21%15% or 10%DPHCzech: Daň z přidané hodnoty
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...roatia.svg.png Croatia25%10%PDVCroatian: Porez na dodanu vrijednost
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...enmark.svg.png Denmark25%nonemomsDanish: Meromsætningsafgift
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...stonia.svg.png Estonia20%9%kmEstonian: käibemaks
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...inland.svg.png Finland24%[37]14% or 10%[38][39]
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...France.svg.png France[40]20%10%, 5.5% or 2.1%TVAFrench: Taxe sur la valeur ajoutée
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ermany.svg.png Germany19%7%MwSt. /USt.German: Mehrwertsteuer / Umsatzsteuer
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Greece.svg.png Greece23%[41]13% or 6.5%[41]ΦΠΑGreek: Φόρος Προστιθέμενης Αξίας (Fóros Prostithémenis Axías)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ungary.svg.png Hungary27%18% or 5%[35]ÁFAHungarian: általános forgalmi adó
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...reland.svg.png Ireland23%[42]13.5%, 9%, 5%, 4.8% or 0%

  1. VAT
  2. CBL

  1. Value Added Tax
  2. Irish: Cáin Bhreisluacha

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._Italy.svg.png Italy22%[43]10% or 4%IVAItalian: Imposta sul Valore Aggiunto
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Latvia.svg.png Latvia21%[44]12%PVNLatvian: Pievienotās vērtības nodoklis
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...huania.svg.png Lithuania21%9% or 5%PVMLithuanian: Pridėtinės vertės mokestis
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...mbourg.svg.png Luxembourg17% [2]14%, 8%, or 3%TVAFrench: Taxe sur la Valeur Ajoutée
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._Malta.svg.png Malta18%7%, 5% or 0%[35]VATMaltese: Taxxa fuq il-Valur Miżjud
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...rlands.svg.png Netherlands21%[45]6%BTWDutch: Belasting toegevoegde waarde
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Poland.svg.png Poland23%8%, 5%[35]PTU / VATPolish: Podatek od towarów i usług
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...rtugal.svg.png Portugal23%[46]13% or 6%[46]IVAPortuguese: Imposto sobre o Valor Acrescentado
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Azores.svg.png Azores18%[46]10% or 5%[46]IVAPortuguese: Imposto sobre o Valor Acrescentado
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...adeira.svg.png Madeira22%[46]12% or 5%[46]IVAPortuguese: Imposto sobre o Valor Acrescentado
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...omania.svg.png Romania24%9% or 5%[35]TVARomanian: Taxa pe valoarea adăugată
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ovakia.svg.png Slovakia20%10%DPHSlovak: Daň z pridanej hodnoty
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ovenia.svg.png Slovenia22%9.5%DDVSlovene: Davek na dodano vrednost
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._Spain.svg.png Spain21%[47]10% or 4%[47]IVASpanish: Impuesto sobre el valor añadido
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...slands.svg.png Canary Islands7% (is outside the European Union VAT area)0% or 2%IGICSpanish: Impuesto General Indirecto Canario
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Sweden.svg.png Sweden25%12% or 6%MomsSwedish: Mervärdesskatt
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ingdom.svg.png United Kingdom
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...of_Man.svg.png Isle of Man
20%5%[48] and 0%[49]

  1. VAT
  2. TAW

  1. English: Value Added Tax
  2. Welsh: Treth ar Werth

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...raltar.svg.png Gibraltarnot applicable (is outside the European Union VAT area)

  • #135,866
  • Jun 30, 2015 9:01am Jun 30, 2015 9:01am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Market is loaded shorts in GOLD via FED hikes (since the FOMC). The risk event right now via Greece will open a very short term spike up and down if Greece default and no deal Before US opened today we got the confirmation that a new proposal is on the table for a last minute deal. In the last 30 minutes or so we keep receiving details on this new deal and everything is starting to look rosy again ... default no deal, short squeeze in gold fast leg to 128x.... any other scenario, just keep trading gold as normal (break 116x to unlock the...
Awesome, makes sense Thank you!
  • #135,867
  • Jun 30, 2015 10:02am Jun 30, 2015 10:02am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Relentless intraday trend so no dice and a reminder of the soft dollar following the last FED meeting. Levels have shifted on the pair and dollar index. Maybe even tempting to fade with the exhausted range but it's late and Monday so let's how it pans out later for the close. I've got 1.1186 now on the pair for "momentum" down which just isn't coming today and it's just shy of the still significant 1.122. Dollar index support is at 95.42 (currently intraday breached.) A hint of risk off right now on the side with the VIX rally...
Both finally being taken with NY. The broken back gap earlier put paid to the first move in the morning and we got another quick in and out at 1.122. 1,1096 looks next up.
  • #135,868
  • Jun 30, 2015 10:10am Jun 30, 2015 10:10am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} The first % that appears, is the General. The second % ( and in certain countries there are four reduced kind of rates) ...
and??? ...you are just showing the VAT and the reduced rates are different across the EZ/EU? whats your point for the topic?....
Quote
For gaining a tax competitive advantage in a sector inside the EU?? I don't reckon there is any country in the EU with a differential tax in tourism?. The exceptions are usually medicine, basic food and education (books) but not in macro sectors ...

---------------- ----------------

....and that was pretty much all for the session. We have an official time for the next and prolly final tweet before Greece default. 19:00 GMT EZ will decide to accept or not Greece last minute proposal.

As LarryDarrell mentioned in his previous post what mockery they greek politicians are making with their people. Why on earth call for a referendum if you are going to negotiate under the table at last minute (bunch of amateurs. Greeks will pay a very heavy toll for the stupidity and incompetence of the current government).

Nothing to see until then. Expecting large moves in a couple of hours whatever the decision...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,869
  • Jun 30, 2015 10:41am Jun 30, 2015 10:41am
[quote=sisse;8355941]{quote} and??? ...you are just showing the VAT and the reduced rates are different across the EZ/EU? whats your point for the topic?....{quote}

1) Firstly, VAT'S are not the same in EZ.
2) Secondly, I give a little bit the reason to other trader claiming against the increase in VAT in tourism. Is that the way to give support to one country in order to get its recovery? ( they will get under a bigger deppresion after this VAT hike in tourism) It's needed a so sharply increase in the tourism VAT? ¿cannot be more gradual or softly? Is FMI really keen on in one deal asking for so VAT hike in teh first Greece industry?
3) Endly, I do not understand your ungry words for these politicians, as the last ones ( Samaras and the ones wich falsificated the national account) did it much worse.
  • #135,870
  • Edited 11:01am Jun 30, 2015 10:51am | Edited 11:01am
There you go for VAT. It's not uncommon for EU areas belonging main countries to have lower / reduced vat due to different economic conditions. And Spain to have 7% vat on tourism (hotels) while they seek to raise the same to 23% from 13% in Greece (23% was the proposal until Friday midnight and before Tsipras called the referendum. It was converted back to 13% an hour later). Talk about unfair competition.

Page 21: http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/taxation/vat/how_vat_works/rates/vat_rates_en.pdf
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  • #135,871
  • Jun 30, 2015 11:04am Jun 30, 2015 11:04am
Quote
Firstly,

.... i don't think i didn't make myself clear. Let me rephrase:

Quote
Firstly, VAT'S are not the same in EZ.

  1. Yes we all know that. The more integration, the more that rates have converged (as expected since Maastricht treaty) now are around +/-20% across the EU but that was not the topic.
  2. The topic is that you can't have differentials VAT inside a country for different sectors. That is very basic Fiscal policy. I am not going in details on that but believe its just not right and good for any Economy both for tax reasons and for distortions between economic sectors.


Quote
I give a little bit the reason to other trader claiming against the increase in VAT...

  1. Sure I understand your reasoning. However, the increase of VAT is not to scare tourism (you wont, Greece is too beautiful and great to scare tourism for a one off increase in price).
  2. Greece competitive advantage in tourism is not in price but in beauty and quality. If a Brit/German etc want price it will go to one of the "all inclusive" monstrosities for 99 for a week with cheap charter flight included in the Algarve or etc not to a beautiful Island in Greece...
  3. More importantly the increase in VAT is to pay their Bureaucrats, teachers, doctors, pensioners, and debt . Its very sad, but tourism is the only small cash cow.
  4. The equation is very basic. Budget = Income - Expenditure . If you expend 190% more times of what you earn ...guess what .... sadly money needs to come from somewhere and Greece doesnt have much to choose because of the lack of investment in the last 30 years ....


Quote
3) ....ngry words for these politicians, as the last ones ( Samaras and the ones wich falsificated the national account) did it much worse.

  1. Oh no you haven read my posts. These politicians???? no no no, the problem with Greece come from years of bad governments. This one, is just a bunch of amateur incompetent left wingers stuck with ideas from the 19th century ....the previous ones have done most of the damage.
  2. The only thing I have repeat in my posts the last 5 years in FF about Greece is that they NEED to clean their house first and especially find a new north to get ride of the incompetent and corrupt governments that they have had in the last 30 years .... and then complain about others....


I hope is clear now ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,872
  • Jun 30, 2015 11:28am Jun 30, 2015 11:28am
[quote=sisse;8356112]{quote} .... i don't think i didn't make myself clear.

Yes, now is more clear. I agree that the VAT diferences cannot be the roots of the armonized EZ as Brussels pretend. But they remain and they are used in the deals or negotiations between countries or the lobbys in Brussels. I agree that a armonized VAT is the ideal goal for Europe. But your words sounded initially maybe too strong.. and as an European and a PIIGS member belonging, I feel just sad for Greece situation, and I would like to find a better way to avoid suffer to Greece people and children that cannot be feed.
  • #135,873
  • Jun 30, 2015 11:29am Jun 30, 2015 11:29am
Quoting sakisf
There you go for VAT. It's not uncommon for EU areas belonging main countries to have lower / reduced vat due to different economic conditions. And Spain to have 7% vat on tourism (hotels) while they seek to raise the same to 23% from 13% in Greece (23% was the proposal until Friday midnight and before Tsipras called the referendum. It was converted back to 13% an hour later). Talk about unfair competition. Page 21: http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/taxation/vat/how_vat_works/rates/vat_rates_en.pdf...
Good you find some loopholes across Europe. 3 things:

 

  1. all those exemptions are tiny islands and regions for very particular reasons more than economic reasons. There is no distortions in VAT in Berlin over Frankfurt neither Paris and Bordeux or London and Manchester .... neither a VAT for Banks and another for Manufacturring, etc.
  2. That a bunch of tiny (insignificant in economic terms) islands in France or in Spain have some exceptions doesn't make it right to have differentials. Its wrong period. They need to correct that in those countries.
  3. but more importantly is about $$$$. If Finland, or etc want to subsidize a tiny town in the middle of nowhere for whatever reason its OK BECAUSE they have the money to do it and their economy balanced to afford the inefficiency....but Greece ????

Sadly for Greece, if you don't generate income (from anywhere) you not only wont pay your creditors, but you wont even pay your Teachers, doctors and exuberant public sector .... So if you don't increase VAT to tourist who have money to expend, HOW are you proposing to cover your obligations?...

Its basically an endless discussion to avoid facing reality:

 

  1. don't increase here because is bad but don't cut there because is bad too ...oh let just stay doing nothing and asking for loans extensions
  2. or better let just ask the rest of the world to pour more money and never pay them again ????
  3. or maybe lets come back to the Drachma, not pay any of out obligations, and print our way for the next couple of months leaving the same fiscal problem: Lots of expenses and not enough Income ....

Greece need to get real and pull themselves together, there is no way out of this, they are only delaying the inevitable ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,874
  • Jun 30, 2015 11:42am Jun 30, 2015 11:42am
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting sisse
{quote} and??? ...you are just showing the VAT and the reduced rates are different across the EZ/EU? whats your point for the topic?....{quote} 1) Firstly, VAT'S are not the same in EZ. 2) Secondly, I give a little bit the reason to other trader claiming against the increase in VAT in tourism. Is that the way to give support to one country in order to get its recovery? ( they will get under a bigger deppresion after this VAT hike in tourism) It's needed a so sharply increase in the tourism VAT? cannot be more gradual or softly?
...

  • #135,875
  • Jun 30, 2015 11:44am Jun 30, 2015 11:44am
Quoting sisse
{quote} .... i don't think i didn't make myself clear. Let me rephrase: {quote} Yes we all know that. The more integration, the more that rates have converged (as expected since Maastricht treaty) now are around +/-20% across the EU but that was not the topic. The topic is that you can't have differentials VAT inside a country for different sectors. That is very basic Fiscal policy. I am not going in details on that but believe its just not right and good for any Economy both for tax reasons and for distortions between economic sectors. {quote}...

  • #135,876
  • Jun 30, 2015 11:47am Jun 30, 2015 11:47am
....I have been in full soup opera mode today (hate having a holiday with major markets movers)... ... l

1.1140x fresh and only tiny micro reference reference level for the default. 2 hours to go for the EZ decision and a couple more for Greece joining the infamous Afghanistan’s, Haiti and Zimbabwe very short list of only countries blacklisted for the IMF ....

Potential wild swings expected in a wide range. For todays KEY Q roll, tracking both 1.128x or 1.098x. For those not in a trade is to late to play if you are not already in...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,877
  • Jun 30, 2015 12:12pm Jun 30, 2015 12:12pm
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Well, people can ask the ecb all they want, doesn't mean they listen... talking from experience here, I have asked them to extend ELA to me, never got a reply. Anyway, like I thought: new negotiations. I honestly don't know why anybody cares anymore... can't we at least have a look at that referendum? I really would have liked to see how they organize it, was already holding my breath if Mr Varoufakis will ask everybody to open up a twitter-account or he turns to his pals at valve/steam to do it. On a serious note: if we get a deal it will...
There you go
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  • #135,878
  • Jun 30, 2015 12:54pm Jun 30, 2015 12:54pm
A complete circus across Europe. Panicking talking heads from all sectos and countries.

There is so much noise and comments that even Blomberg can't track all the info ....no t worth commenting details anylonger....
tick tock ...the final tweet from the EZ can come any minute from now until default (6pm NY)...europe in panic, greece collapsing but markets quite waiting for an anticlimactic result....

Sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,879
  • Jun 30, 2015 1:11pm Jun 30, 2015 1:11pm
Quoting sisse
A complete circus across Europe. Panicking talking heads from all sectos and countries. There is so much noise and comments that even Blomberg can't track all the info ....no t worth commenting details anylonger.... tick tock ...the final tweet from the EZ can come any minute from now until default (6pm NY)...europe in panic, greece collapsing but markets quite waiting for an anticlimactic result.... Sisse
Thanks for your analysis today, and gl.
  • #135,880
  • Jun 30, 2015 1:26pm Jun 30, 2015 1:26pm
Oh no....first tweets coming out...apparentky they are going to meet again tomorrow.... Lol unbelievable!!!!

Soon w'll have the official version but for historical record Greece will default in 3hours...and for the sound of the gossip some kind of deal is cooking but they need approvals from PMs and Presidents overnight....

Watchiout for euro lossing floor for the roll...sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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