I was away from trading most of last week, but I'm loving the fresh discussions and charts everyone is posting 
Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
- #14,142
- Jun 30, 2015 2:43am Jun 30, 2015 2:43am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
Good morning everyone.
Back in the saddle again today, currently running a short on EURUSD. I won't lie, EURUSD is making me very nervous right now on the fundamentals.
However, this short was a 38 fib retracement backed up with a major RN, overextension of the smaller-scale CD leg, previous structure and some nice rejection by the bulls.
Back in the saddle again today, currently running a short on EURUSD. I won't lie, EURUSD is making me very nervous right now on the fundamentals.
However, this short was a 38 fib retracement backed up with a major RN, overextension of the smaller-scale CD leg, previous structure and some nice rejection by the bulls.
- #14,143
- Jun 30, 2015 4:04am Jun 30, 2015 4:04am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
Out for +59 pips at the 1:1 completion.
It was touch and go with the 3 EUR news events coming up and price dancing around the AB=CD completion, but not quite touching it.
But got there in the end
It was touch and go with the 3 EUR news events coming up and price dancing around the AB=CD completion, but not quite touching it.
But got there in the end
- #14,144
- Jun 30, 2015 4:14am Jun 30, 2015 4:14am
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Great hopes make great men | 2,043 Posts
Out for +59 pips at the 1:1 completion. It was touch and go with the 3 EUR news events coming up and price dancing around the AB=CD completion, but not quite touching it. But got there in the end
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
- #14,145
- Jun 30, 2015 4:20am Jun 30, 2015 4:20am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote}
In again short on EURUSD.
The news reaction is over having pushed price into the golden zone (just). Backed up with structure, a minor RN plus overextension of a smaller-scale AB=CD.
- #14,146
- Jun 30, 2015 4:47am Jun 30, 2015 4:47am
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Great hopes make great men | 2,043 Posts
{quote} Thanks George
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
- #14,147
- Jun 30, 2015 5:27am Jun 30, 2015 5:27am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} Always a pleasure Captain. Can't comment on your trade as I trade a completely different system. I agree to the short but will wait until break of the DPV which will also bring price below my MTF MA channel (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8355120#post8355120). Just MHO
Dynamic has changed and the second BE trade should never have been entered as that was patently obvious at the time.
Current short based upon 1:1 completion coincident with a major RN and prior structure. CD leg showed weakness in a double push and then huge bearish rejection above the RN.
- #14,148
- Jun 30, 2015 5:38am Jun 30, 2015 5:38am
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Great hopes make great men | 2,043 Posts
{quote} Well, it knocked me out at BE twice but I'm in again... I wonder if it'll be 3 BEs? Dynamic has changed and the second BE trade should never have been entered as that was patently obvious at the time. Current short based upon 1:1 completion coincident with a major RN and prior structure. CD leg showed weakness in a double push and then huge bearish rejection above the RN. {image}
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
- #14,149
- Jun 30, 2015 6:03am Jun 30, 2015 6:03am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} Perfect analysis Captain even though I understand nothing much of harmonics but I just sold too for 5 pips when PA closed below both my M5 & M15 TMA and not surprised that it went back up again as the M1 TMA is still above both M5 & M15. I am waiting for the M1 TMA to come below both the M15 and M5 TMA, then I will have confidence to sell and hold, otherwise I'm off to snooze. {image}
Enjoy the snooze!I have closed out my EURUSD short for +22 pips.
Decision point not to exit at BE: not enough enthusiasm from the bulls to convince me they were going to break through the RN. If you look at the strength of the previous failed attack on the RN (just before entry) this attack was much weaker.
Exit point was 1:1 completion to the downside, coincident with minor RN, extensive prior structure (plus MA).
- #14,151
- Jun 30, 2015 8:18am Jun 30, 2015 8:18am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
Beautiful confluence OnetoOne and 161%. greetings {image}
Currently short again on EURUSD. Golden zone retracement, large over extension AB=CD with momentum drop
- #14,152
- Jun 30, 2015 8:32am Jun 30, 2015 8:32am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} Great to see you back pampaq
Arguably a premature exit, however discretion is often the better part of valour.
The trade was the retracement of a break of a significant RN and therefore the expectation was to retest this RN as support.
Plus, it coincided with 2 fibs of relevant swings (plus the MA).
The bulls hadn't showed up yet, but I'd rather take the pips off the table. Particularly with some high impact USD news coming up within 30 mins.
- #14,154
- Jun 30, 2015 9:20am Jun 30, 2015 9:20am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} Well Done Honestknave Great trading Aj1
Currently short (again!) on the EURUSD (what else?).
I'd definitely put this in the more risky camp. Essentially, we saw price crash back down to the RN and beyond. It hit the golden zone but the bulls have not achieved anything. In fact, they are stuck the wrong side of the RN and price is making ever so slightly lower lows.
SL is tight (actually now BE as I type this), reward is potentially high. Let's see how it pans out.
- #14,155
- Jun 30, 2015 10:03am Jun 30, 2015 10:03am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} Thanks Aj1, I hope you've managed to bag a few pips today too
Then that happened
At least it validated the premise for entry
- #14,156
- Jun 30, 2015 10:09am Jun 30, 2015 10:09am
{quote} Well, I chickened out early at the 61 fib (+19 pips). Then that happened
You have had a fantastic trading day
Keep it up
Aj1
- #14,157
- Jun 30, 2015 11:00am Jun 30, 2015 11:00am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} Honest you done great, this tops your day. You have had a fantastic trading day Keep it up Aj1
But I got lucky today; nobody of importance said anything to upset the fundamental side of things. Considering recent times, it was an unusual day for EURUSD to be behaving itself
Plus I still managed to make plenty of mistakes, but as long as I've learnt something from the day everything is good
- #14,158
- Jun 30, 2015 1:31pm Jun 30, 2015 1:31pm
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
So I thought I'd post up a step-by-step example of a low risk trade that appeared late in the day on EURUSD that was good for an easy 20 pips.
For the purists, I'm not going to make reference to moving averages, pivot points or anything else.
For the purists, I'm not going to make reference to moving averages, pivot points or anything else.