It's OK.
A relaunch of MT4 did the trick.
A relaunch of MT4 did the trick.
Trading is as simple as ABCD
- #6,743
- Jun 28, 2015 12:56pm Jun 28, 2015 12:56pm
ok, here is a little note from the strategy tester... I don't think you can use the color of the center line as any type of filter. TMA is great, its very useful at seeing turning points and cycles within cycles as you have said, but the thing will repaint on you causing you to see historical entries as valid, enabling confirmation bias and false confidence. That is a dangerous combo to your account. I suggest using tma in combo with regular s&r analysis and your regular trend following systems. Im not putting it down, just advising you to put no confidence in looking at the left side of the chart in regards to the center line.
if you only look at the confluence of the 5 min band and 1 min band with regards to previous resistance, it looks like a clear short signal, but center line is green.
if you only look at the confluence of the 5 min band and 1 min band with regards to previous resistance, it looks like a clear short signal, but center line is green.
- #6,744
- Jun 28, 2015 1:01pm Jun 28, 2015 1:01pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
The more I look at these charts the crazier it seems to be getting, I'm struggling to find a losing trade????? It will be very interesting trading this in real time next week as it is looking too good to be true and you know what they say about that don't you??
The secret I've got to say is in the 1 min channel entry just after a colour change in the middle band in the direction of the 5 minute channel and even better if the 15 min channel is going the same way..
Just look at this GBPUSD chart when it comes down to the lower bands, first note the 15 min channel is sloping up so we're looking for entries from its lower band and hey presto down price comes and we have the meeting of the lower bands on all three TMA's ..so all we do is wait for the 1 min TMA middle band to turn green, then look for a touch of the 1 minute bottom band.
And BANG!!! Its gone in a flash with a 5 pip stop and 14 minutes later with your TP set on the upper band , you have 25 pips in the bag..
Then it pulls back to the 1 min bottom band again and away you go again, only thing about this entry is I'm not sure it would of been green in real time, but if it wasn't just let it go, there will be another signal along shortly.
And sure enough 30 minutes later it pulls back again to the 1 min LB plus the 5 min is there too so now you know the 5 minute boys are there to help your trade and off it goes again and this time I'm happy this would of been a green middle line. Bit longer trade this one but if you manage to hold it then its another 25 pips in the bank off of an 8 pip stop for a 1:3 trade...Then thers a sort run for 10 pips another for 20 and finally an 18 pip winner.
One thing to note on this setup is the slope of the 5 minute channel is quite steep and the 15 min is going the same way..
If I'm honest this is all looking far too good to be true but theres only one way to find out isn't there???
The secret I've got to say is in the 1 min channel entry just after a colour change in the middle band in the direction of the 5 minute channel and even better if the 15 min channel is going the same way..
Just look at this GBPUSD chart when it comes down to the lower bands, first note the 15 min channel is sloping up so we're looking for entries from its lower band and hey presto down price comes and we have the meeting of the lower bands on all three TMA's ..so all we do is wait for the 1 min TMA middle band to turn green, then look for a touch of the 1 minute bottom band.
And BANG!!! Its gone in a flash with a 5 pip stop and 14 minutes later with your TP set on the upper band , you have 25 pips in the bag..
Then it pulls back to the 1 min bottom band again and away you go again, only thing about this entry is I'm not sure it would of been green in real time, but if it wasn't just let it go, there will be another signal along shortly.
And sure enough 30 minutes later it pulls back again to the 1 min LB plus the 5 min is there too so now you know the 5 minute boys are there to help your trade and off it goes again and this time I'm happy this would of been a green middle line. Bit longer trade this one but if you manage to hold it then its another 25 pips in the bank off of an 8 pip stop for a 1:3 trade...Then thers a sort run for 10 pips another for 20 and finally an 18 pip winner.
One thing to note on this setup is the slope of the 5 minute channel is quite steep and the 15 min is going the same way..
If I'm honest this is all looking far too good to be true but theres only one way to find out isn't there???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #6,745
- Jun 28, 2015 1:30pm Jun 28, 2015 1:30pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
ok, here is a little note from the strategy tester... I don't think you can use the color of the center line as any type of filter. TMA is great, its very useful at seeing turning points and cycles within cycles as you have said, but the thing will repaint on you causing you to see historical entries as valid, enabling confirmation bias and false confidence. That is a dangerous combo to your account. I suggest using tma in combo with regular s&r analysis and your regular trend following systems. Im not putting it down, just advising you to put no...
Thanks my friend for that observation I thought this was looking all too good, will have to watch out what happens when I trade live. It might be that the very early signals are not going to signal as you have pionted out but once the slope is set hopefully we will be fine. Trying to get in too early into a trend is just as dangerous as getting in too late.
Thanks for the heads up will keep an eye on that situation for sure but the good news is it would have kept me out of the market as it didn't signal in real time so at least thats a good point rather than putting me into a bad trade...
Thanks again for the info I will be watching out for that tomoz for sure..
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #6,749
- Jun 28, 2015 1:53pm Jun 28, 2015 1:53pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} i see your point which is fair enough,,so turn the center line to false,,,,i have the tma slope indicator at the bottom of my chart and never seen that repaint ,,besides signal is crossing zero and i give it enough for confirmation so for me this system does work,,,,,i traded it last friday,,,11 winners 1 loser,,,the loser? my fault,,,hit wrong button so like clive,,look forward to this week
Yep lets trade this baby next week and then we will know far more than we do right now, I'm confident its going to give us a trading edge for sure just maybe not quite the edge the past charts are showing but certainly a very tradable edge.
I see this as a road map of whats going on , on the other timeframes and where their important levels are eg extremes of moves, therefore its pointing me to the right area of the chart to trade my one minute entries. I'm happy its not going to be exact as it shows on the hindsight charts but as long as we wait for the 1 minute trend to resume with the 5 min/15 min trends we're be fine. I'm not going to be hitting trades just because a 15min TMA has been hit thats for sure, I'm going to wait for the one minute to react and turn the same way then jump on board.
very happy with what we're doing here and very grateful to you for introducing me to it. Now its down to me and you to prove it either works or it doesn't, trading it in real time will answer all these questions for sure one way or the other...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #6,753
- Jun 28, 2015 4:06pm Jun 28, 2015 4:06pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #6,755
- Jun 28, 2015 11:23pm Jun 28, 2015 11:23pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Hi Clive, I am doing something wrong here ,can't get my charts to have the TMA CHANNELS looking like your charts what is the setting in the Indi (no band within a band ) on my 1 min chart , can any one help ,cheers
Post me a chart to look at because it could be down to the massive EUR gaps at market open today which has thrown all the TMA's out on EUR pairs.. If so it will just take time for it to all come back into line, however the 1 minute will almost recover within the hour...5 min and 15 min a bit longer.
Its a good example of when not to trade the 5 and 15 min bands after sudden price moves as they have little value to offer but the 1 minute channel will show you the immediate price direction..
Put a post up and I'll have a look...
Already had someone PMed me who has a tremendous success with it over night so thats encouraging...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #6,756
- Jun 28, 2015 11:41pm Jun 28, 2015 11:41pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} even more problematic, the 5 min will repaint up to 30 bars backwards, the 15 will repaint 90 bars back on a 1 min chart. I just wouldn't use the color change function for any kind of confirmation, the outer bands and confluence of 5-15-1 bands with support and resistance will be pretty reliable, I think.
Thats very interesting that you've identified the repaint at around 5 to 10 minutes so basically the last 5 to 10 mins of info is unreliable?? But will it always repaint?? Or is it possible the TMA data won't always change if its correct??
The thing is I'm seeing these TMAs more as a map of where the 5 minute and 15 minute traders are at in their cycles so helpng me to identify the best places for me to trade the 1 minute rather than just follow the 1 min trend, especially if its heading straight into a 5 or worst 15 min TMA (extreme) where there is a high probability it will react...
I see these 5 and 15 min TMAs more as "Zones" where I can expect a reaction on my one minute trading channel, I won't be just hitting entries at these TMAs but getting ready to trade the 1 minute channel if it should react at these 5 and 15 min TMAs. If I don't see the 1 minute react ie its middle band change direction then I won't be trading it..
From your experience of trading TMA's, do you think that will work or will the TMA's be so far out as to be of little value??
Anyway the best test is a forward test so lets see how it goes today...Its got two chances I guess...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #6,758
- Jun 28, 2015 11:47pm Jun 28, 2015 11:47pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
1 min TTindy telling me to sell this but u=its just touching the 5 and 15 min TMA LBs so if this turns up it could be worth a look...
I am taking loads of snapshots today of all these setups so I can review later to see what the TMAs look like at the time so not neccessarily trading them just watching whats happening...
I am taking loads of snapshots today of all these setups so I can review later to see what the TMAs look like at the time so not neccessarily trading them just watching whats happening...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #6,759
- Jun 28, 2015 11:53pm Jun 28, 2015 11:53pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
USDJPY and EURJPY the same...
I want to see the 1 min turn up before I'd trade anything but its gonna be interesting looking back at these even in 10 minutes time to see how different the 1 min TMAs are...???
I want to see the 1 min turn up before I'd trade anything but its gonna be interesting looking back at these even in 10 minutes time to see how different the 1 min TMAs are...???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #6,760
- Jun 29, 2015 12:02am Jun 29, 2015 12:02am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Hi Clive hope this helps !! {image}
And heres my TMA settings for each timeframe as per this chart
1 min
5 min
and 15 min
Hope that helps let me know and post a new chart if it does...
Cheers..
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!