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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #135,501
  • Jun 26, 2015 11:41am Jun 26, 2015 11:41am
Quoting Kershey
approaching full bar loss {image}
Hope that trade ends up working out mate. There might be something you need to adjust if you are taking too many losses. Why not shoot Mike an email if you're not feeling like you're getting it. I'm sure he'd be happy to help out with a few suggestions. Take it easy and have a nice weekend. GB.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #135,502
  • Jun 26, 2015 12:16pm Jun 26, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting Kershey
approaching full bar loss {image}
beob make sense in a downtrend at a minor swing high. here you are in a sideways market. this bar has just a lower low than the others. hth
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #135,503
  • Jun 26, 2015 12:28pm Jun 26, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting Kershey
approaching full bar loss {image}
So, why is this an issue?

This is normal IMO.
  • #135,504
  • Edited 3:04pm Jun 26, 2015 12:54pm | Edited 3:04pm
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Hope that trade ends up working out mate. There might be something you need to adjust if you are taking too many losses. Why not shoot Mike an email if you're not feeling like you're getting it. I'm sure he'd be happy to help out with a few suggestions. Take it easy and have a nice weekend. GB.



No, sorry man. SL hit after 4H close above weekly high.
3 loosers in a row, approx. minus 5%.
Monthly account balance turned from winning month to loosing month.
I will just turn my entries around.
Everytime I intent to enter short it will be a long and vice versa.


@ aserbfx:
I saw there a beginning downtrend, after the uptrend channel from february to may did not continued.
Price closed below a major support (1.0900), which was confirmed by a pin the following day.
AUD/CAD, which is a setup which I did not entered because I was short CAD,
is also rather a sideways market and worked out.
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  • #135,505
  • Jun 26, 2015 3:33pm Jun 26, 2015 3:33pm
Quoting Kershey
approaching full bar loss {image}

I can't count how many times I wish I'd gotten out after the initial push and profit I've made.....either buying or selling. Usually does eventually go my way,(so I do feel confident with my trade decisions) only after wiping out my nice initial profit.

I'm not proficient enough to jump in and out to profit with the swings.....all the while, still going my way(eventually). Doesn't seem to matter which time frame I'm on either.

More study of PPZs, S&R, and just looking left I suppose. Or maybe just be happy with my first banked pips.

Use trailing stops you say? Not much luck there either.

Today I watched my 65 pip profit with eur/usd turn into 38 pips
  • #135,506
  • Jun 26, 2015 3:44pm Jun 26, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting Kershey
{quote} No, sorry man. SL hit after 4H close above weekly high. 3 loosers in a row, approx. minus 5%. Monthly account balance turned from winning month to loosing month. I will just turn my entries around. Everytime I intent to enter short it will be a long and vice versa. @ aserbfx: I saw there a beginning downtrend, after the uptrend channel from february to may did not continued. Price closed below a major support (1.0900), which was confirmed by a pin the following day. AUD/CAD, which is a setup which I did not entered because I was short CAD,...

That's funny Kershey. I felt the same way once. Trading like George Costanza. If every trade decision I've made was wrong, the opposite must be right
  • #135,507
  • Jun 26, 2015 8:37pm Jun 26, 2015 8:37pm
Quoting Kershey
{quote} No, sorry man. SL hit after 4H close above weekly high. 3 loosers in a row, approx. minus 5%. Monthly account balance turned from winning month to loosing month. I will just turn my entries around. Everytime I intent to enter short it will be a long and vice versa. @ aserbfx: I saw there a beginning downtrend, after the uptrend channel from february to may did not continued. Price closed below a major support (1.0900), which was confirmed by a pin the following day. AUD/CAD, which is a setup which I did not entered because I was short CAD,...
Kershey. My thoughts if you don't mind. AUD/CAD D1. Chart you posted where you entered on that PB. I would have looked to enter well above that at a swing high for better probability trade, around .9700 level. No signal on the daily, which is when I would've been looking for a signal on intraday charts/H4 or H1 to enter around that level. If no set-up, no trade and on to scanning the next 10-80 pairs/markets or whatever etc. Your trade worked out, but sideways market as mentioned, and lower probability trades in these situations usually if we keep taking such set-ups.

The other losing trade you posted CAD/SGD, I think you entered too late. An earlier entry from a swing high, e.g. that PB a few bars back would've been the way to play it for higher probability odds for me just below 1.1000 zone. I offer my thoughts here because I used to take trades like the one's you posted. I was always entering a little late and in the middle of PA somewhere, rather than at a swing high or swing low. Continuation trades can work of course, but what is best about J16 method for me is....trade short from a swing high. Trade long from a swing low. Simple but powerful and higher probability. You look to be picking great signals, but your entry looks to be a little late. Just my thoughts friend. Take it easy GB.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #135,508
  • Jun 27, 2015 1:49am Jun 27, 2015 1:49am
Quoting Kershey
approaching full bar loss {image}
A little bit of consolidation analysis would have helped. I believe you took the pin at the top of the box. you absolutely had no room to move. Market did what it was supposed to do.

In CAD/SGD , you had no room below as you were going right into the top of the box.

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In AUD/CAD , i believe you got the pin at the arrow and if it broke below, there was enough room to move to the bottom of the box. Hence it worked out.

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Hope this helps.
  • #135,509
  • Jun 27, 2015 3:35am Jun 27, 2015 3:35am
Hi, guys!

Check please my thought process with a few trades last week.

AUD/NZD D1
DBHLC (1 pips difference) from swing high and RN 1.13, enter at retrace to inside bar, initial SL after 1.13, now SL moved after PB high.
Is it OK to place TP at nearest S/R, or in this case, given the sharp increase, it is better to make B/E around 1.11 and wait for S/R at 1.09?
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USD/JPY H4
TT after breakout from triangle. Enter at retrace to TL, after 50 pips - B/E, and then stopped at B/E.
Is there any sense to enter like this - when we break from this side of triangle and there is traffic, near to S/R?
Or it's better to wait for breakout other side of triangle - due to more space?
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AUD/CAD H4
PB (not ideal, without long nose) from S/R box high and RN 0.96. Enter at retrace to S/R, SL after PB high. Due to short TP, I took just a little part of this huge movement =(
And in general, is it OK to take touch trade in this case - just from high of the box? Or it's better to wait for PA confluence for better win rate?
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  • #135,510
  • Jun 27, 2015 7:56am Jun 27, 2015 7:56am
aserbfx, Bryan, GB, thanks for the feedback.

Did not take the AUD/CAD trade because I had already a CAD short position in CAD/SGD.



Quoting zamfir
{quote} So, why is this an issue? This is normal IMO.
Because, imho, this method is based on a high winrate and
on D1 you have rarely trades exceeding RR 1:3 and up,
in order to compensate for some loosers.
  • #135,511
  • Jun 27, 2015 11:02am Jun 27, 2015 11:02am
Hey guys, any thoughts on this pin bar that formed yesterday on XAGUSD daily chart? Any particular reason why you wouldn't take this potential trade? To be honest, I've never traded silver before.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #135,512
  • Jun 27, 2015 12:10pm Jun 27, 2015 12:10pm
Waiting for GBPUSD nice reaction at marked zone would be worth a trade i think
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Patience is key.
  • #135,513
  • Jun 27, 2015 2:52pm Jun 27, 2015 2:52pm
Quoting Kershey
aserbfx, Bryan, GB, thanks for the feedback. Did not take the AUD/CAD trade because I had already a CAD short position in CAD/SGD. {quote} Because, imho, this method is based on a high winrate and on D1 you have rarely trades exceeding RR 1:3 and up, in order to compensate for some loosers.
Hey Kershey

This is all part of the learning process. Don't be discouraged by losses, you gotta learn from them best you can. Some losses are just a part of trading. These last few months have been TOUGH. I've potentially had my first losing month of the year for june pending next week(around -.5%). It's a part of trading but also it's important how we are handling and cutting our losses

This method though is NOT about a high win rate. It's all about balance as a trader. Some might go for high win rate others like myself it's simply a matter of cutting losses. This is what I refer to as dynamic risk:reward. As soon as I though of my trading in this way i never looked back.

here is a very important post that I hope those struggling with trading will take some time to internalize. What it might mean for you could be different and that's okay.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ic#post8033360

I care very little about my win rate versus my profit factor rate. Just some thoughts that I hope will help you in your next phase

Best
Mike
  • #135,514
  • Jun 27, 2015 3:21pm Jun 27, 2015 3:21pm
Evening guys, just checking through the charts and I saw a Pinbar on the USD/CAD daily.

I have a question about how significant a candle like this is given that its tail is not extended above the tops of the previous candles. Would this kind of pin be disregarded as a potential to make some pips?

I traded the previous pin at the swing low for some good profits but that pinbar had the good characteristics needed to trade with more safety.

Cheers guys as ever.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #135,515
  • Jun 28, 2015 1:16am Jun 28, 2015 1:16am
Quoting Bladerunn3r
Evening guys, just checking through the charts and I saw a Pinbar on the USD/CAD daily. I have a question about how significant a candle like this is given that its tail is not extended above the tops of the previous candles. Would this kind of pin be disregarded as a potential to make some pips? I traded the previous pin at the swing low for some good profits but that pinbar had the good characteristics needed to trade with more safety. Cheers guys as ever. {image}
Hey Blade, thought I’d give my two cents, firstly because I’m bored and secondly it may help you somehow.

I wouldn’t take this pin bar and let me explain why. I’m not too concerned with traffic to the left as I have no intentions of holding on to a position too long. Initially I’m looking for 2:1 and I play pin bars at the 50% ret, so that means that price has to only break the pin bar’s high/low and I’ve already hit 1R, a little higher/lower and I’m taking profits at 2R (which is at 0.5R if you’re playing the breakout of the pin bar, hence why traffic becomes relevant to traders who do trade that way because price would have to move significantly to give them 2:1RR or more). But the one thing that I do want to see in a pin bar is clear rejection of higher/lower price. I.e. the tail must protrude from the surrounding price bars. In Friday’s bar on the Loonie there’s no real rejection of higher price.

I also ask others here what they think of certain setups. I like to know how others think and I learn that way. Hope this helps. Also, what kind of trader are you? Are you looking to sell high and hold your position? Or a scalper perhaps? Because as a scalper I’d take the trade for 30 pips or so at the break of the low. I have a small separate scalping account from which I do just that. Some people will call that stupid trading and they may be right, but it works. I have not lost a single trade on that account yet. So I guess it depends on you.
Anyway, I’m saying too much now and it’s almost time for church too. It’s my birthday tomorrow by the way, turning 23.
Okay now I’m saying way too much. Bye
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  • #135,516
  • Jun 28, 2015 3:14am Jun 28, 2015 3:14am
Quoting incognito517
{quote} Hey Blade, thought Id give my two cents, firstly because Im bored and secondly it may help you somehow. I wouldnt take this pin bar and let me explain why. Im not too concerned with traffic to the left as I have no intentions of holding on to a position too long. Initially Im looking for 2:1 and I play pin bars at the 50% ret, so that means that price has to only break the pin bars high/low and Ive already hit 1R, a little higher/lower and Im taking profits at 2R (which is at 0.5R if youre playing the breakout of the pin bar, hence why traffic...
Hello Incognito, firstly let me say Happy Birthday for tomorrow and secondly thank you for adding your advice on this one.

I answer your question of what kind of trader I am, I am a more long term trader, I stopped scalping the 5 and 15 minute account due to over trading and whilst i never saw a negative on my demo account I was killing my positive numbers with impulsiveness. I find that I do not have the time to sit in front of the computer winning money and then over trading it away, so i do like to hold trades for longer periods and monitor them twice a day.

I agree with your feelings about this pin bar, the previous ones tail really shot out beyond the surrounding candles and this one is rather muted in comparison. Like you i think there will be some pips to make on it but it certainly isn't clear cut and not worth risking.

Great to get some feedback and a thanks again from me. This is a fine thread for advice and general camaraderie, afterall we are travelling together on this forex journey and if you can help each other out then all the better.
  • #135,517
  • Jun 28, 2015 4:03am Jun 28, 2015 4:03am
Quoting Bladerunn3r
Evening guys, just checking through the charts and I saw a Pinbar on the USD/CAD daily. I have a question about how significant a candle like this is given that its tail is not extended above the tops of the previous candles. Would this kind of pin be disregarded as a potential to make some pips? I traded the previous pin at the swing low for some good profits but that pinbar had the good characteristics needed to trade with more safety. Cheers guys as ever. {image}
Hi B,

This sort of pinbar may very well mean exhaustion.
A reversal pinbar is the one you said you played a the previous swing low. Small body, long tail, protrudes out of the small box marked by the previous candles low, and left eye level respected when it broke.

Here, you are referring to what Ghous calls an inverted pinbar.
I invite you to search his posts about this setup in this thread - I ll have to go in a minute...

Then, even as an inverted pinbar, i wouldn't trade this one, as price is just ranging in my opinion...

take care - and sorry for the limited information...
Slow & steady
  • #135,518
  • Jun 28, 2015 6:12am Jun 28, 2015 6:12am
Quoting patapouer
{quote} Hi B, This sort of pinbar may very well mean exhaustion. A reversal pinbar is the one you said you played a the previous swing low. Small body, long tail, protrudes out of the small box marked by the previous candles low, and left eye level respected when it broke. Here, you are referring to what Ghous calls an inverted pinbar. I invite you to search his posts about this setup in this thread - I ll have to go in a minute... Then, even as an inverted pinbar, i wouldn't trade this one, as price is just ranging in my opinion... take care -...
Hello Patapouer, thanks for the explanation and no need to apologise for anything. I shall check out the posts you mention and watch how this pin bar plays out without risking a trade on it. I have read some information about the inverted pin in the past but will certainly do some more homework on the meanings and possible outcomes of this pattern.

Have a great Sunday.
  • #135,519
  • Jun 28, 2015 6:32am Jun 28, 2015 6:32am
hi,
what do you think about take short position on AUD/NZD next week?
IMO we have space and nice confluence:
- PPZ 1.13000
- TL
- IB
- FIB 38.2
- RN

I suppose that a little problem can be up trend
I would like to set sell stop around 15 pips below last close. Is it a good option for your - professional traders?
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  • #135,520
  • Jun 28, 2015 7:14am Jun 28, 2015 7:14am
Quoting incognito517
Hey guys, any thoughts on this pin bar that formed yesterday on XAGUSD daily chart? Any particular reason why you wouldn't take this potential trade? To be honest, I've never traded silver before. {image}
Hey Inco. Happy birthday friend! I would be looking for shorts at the moment on this pair, as it looks to be more in a downtrend than a box/range, with room still to fall. Plus PB with bearish close doesn't help. I will watch this pair for a pullback to a swing high then look for PA to go short. Take care, GB.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
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