Greetings all,
In my old journal thread, I had been reporting my experiences trading an edge that I developed at the end of last year. The edge uses a concept called "tick density" and is based on research in this report (http://capitalisttrader.com/trading-resources/research-reports/forex-tick-density-may-2015/). The research used weekly bars, so the method has a mid-term to long-term trading horizon.
Since I've moved to the Commercial Content area, I don't have access to my old journal anymore, so I'll continue that reportage here.
So far, I've racked up 9 wins and 18 losses, with an average win of 1.41R and an average loss of 0.41R. That translates to a 33% win rate and a win/loss odds ratio of 2.14, so the current expectancy is:
(1/3)(2.14) - (2/3)(1) = 5%
That expectancy has been dropping over the course of my trading, although some of my losses were due to an error I was making in identifying trades (which I've since corrected). I trade this using a trailing stop, and additional entries as my stop moves past b/e, 1R, 2R, etc. Other traders with different trade management and money management techniques will of course have varying results.
Anyway, to continue the reporting, based on a signal from this past weekend, I've been long GBP/AUD for most of the past week. Here's what that trade looks like now, with my current stop shown by the red line, the entry by the blue dashed line, and the 1R point shown by the green dotted line.
I'll keep this thread updated as long as I can continue to trade this live (basically until I empty out my account in order to pay living expenses
), so stay tuned!
And as always...keep pipping up!!
In my old journal thread, I had been reporting my experiences trading an edge that I developed at the end of last year. The edge uses a concept called "tick density" and is based on research in this report (http://capitalisttrader.com/trading-resources/research-reports/forex-tick-density-may-2015/). The research used weekly bars, so the method has a mid-term to long-term trading horizon.
Since I've moved to the Commercial Content area, I don't have access to my old journal anymore, so I'll continue that reportage here.
So far, I've racked up 9 wins and 18 losses, with an average win of 1.41R and an average loss of 0.41R. That translates to a 33% win rate and a win/loss odds ratio of 2.14, so the current expectancy is:
(1/3)(2.14) - (2/3)(1) = 5%
That expectancy has been dropping over the course of my trading, although some of my losses were due to an error I was making in identifying trades (which I've since corrected). I trade this using a trailing stop, and additional entries as my stop moves past b/e, 1R, 2R, etc. Other traders with different trade management and money management techniques will of course have varying results.
Anyway, to continue the reporting, based on a signal from this past weekend, I've been long GBP/AUD for most of the past week. Here's what that trade looks like now, with my current stop shown by the red line, the entry by the blue dashed line, and the 1R point shown by the green dotted line.
I'll keep this thread updated as long as I can continue to trade this live (basically until I empty out my account in order to pay living expenses
), so stay tuned! And as always...keep pipping up!!
