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Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

  • #621
  • Jun 21, 2015 12:17pm Jun 21, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting simond2002
Been watching Oz for a while. On the monthly chart, the April bullish engulfing candle at the end of the large move down started to look interesting. May's failure to close below the April candle can also be significant. It's far too early to tell with any degree of convicition but can it be an attempt to halt price and setup a retrace back up towards the 0.8700 area? {image} On the daily chart below, obviously today's candle still needs to close but a bullish W chart pattern formed here with its base at demand becomes interesting. {image} On the...

Here is my perspective

Monthly, A strong bullish pa formation formed 2 candles ago, but wasn't in any demand and just broken through a key s/r hence the fairly strong bear bar following it:

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Weekly view, we have a bull engulf out of demand but the demand isn't strong and we are in a down trend on weekly... supply zone above looks very good

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Daily view, many nice recent bull engulfs helping price to slowly rise up, but also compressing on way up... Yellow line marks perimeter of weekly supply zone..

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H4 view, broken out of wedge structure (green tl) and also taken out the bear engulf which was capping the down side to the left

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Now I think we head up from here to that weekly supply. How we get there could be straight up from here and look for longs on h1, or we break down to that purple box just below price on h4, and up from there. Would be nice to see some h4 bull engulf pa to hide stop behind. Once we get to the weekly supply I think market will begin to turn make its longer term move down again...
  • #622
  • Jun 21, 2015 3:14pm Jun 21, 2015 3:14pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} Here is my perspective Monthly, A strong bullish pa formation formed 2 candles ago, but wasn't in any demand and just broken through a key s/r hence the fairly strong bear bar following it: {image} Weekly view, we have a bull engulf out of demand but the demand isn't strong and we are in a down trend on weekly... supply zone above looks very good {image} Daily view, many nice recent bull engulfs helping price to slowly rise up, but also compressing on way up... Yellow line marks perimeter of weekly supply zone.. {image} H4 view, broken...

Hey dude,

Yeah I agree. If the D1 in post 616 would have printed the PA then my bias for longer term longs would have been much more confident. Price was solidly rejected, however, and for now (at least on the D1) there's too much indecision going on.

For me at this point it all depends on how price reacts at 0.7860 (the D1 supply level). Based on the H4 chart below (which I think is more less similar to your H4 analysis) I'm looking for intraday longs up to the D1 supply level then if all goes well see how price reacts once it arrives.
Obviously this piece of dirt will do what it wants in the end, and if the current situation changes I'll do my best to react and change with it

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  • #623
  • Jun 22, 2015 6:35am Jun 22, 2015 6:35am
Quoting skaapkop
it would be great if you can post a few trades that you take from those timeframes and the logic behind them, it would help me and many others. cheers(:
Logic for this short trade illustrated on the chart.

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  • #624
  • Jun 22, 2015 9:58am Jun 22, 2015 9:58am
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} Here is my perspective Monthly, A strong bullish pa formation formed 2 candles ago, but wasn't in any demand and just broken through a key s/r hence the fairly strong bear bar following it: {image} Weekly view, we have a bull engulf out of demand but the demand isn't strong and we are in a down trend on weekly... supply zone above looks very good {image} Daily view, many nice recent bull engulfs helping price to slowly rise up, but also compressing on way up... Yellow line marks perimeter of weekly supply zone.. {image} H4 view, broken...
Hi Naughtypip,
Is that the Acegazette S&D indicator you are using on your charts? I had one.. but after I reinstalled my terminal.. I can't find it. Do you mind sharing the indi?
Thanks a lot.

Vin
  • #625
  • Jun 23, 2015 5:23am Jun 23, 2015 5:23am
EURJPY tech

On the H4 swing side, the new low on this pair started to look quite interesting this morning. Line chart is a bit clearer than the candles at the moment.
If it sets up according to my trade rules I'm going to try and sell the tops of any rallies and potentially target 137.00 or thereabouts.

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  • #626
  • Jun 26, 2015 2:18am Jun 26, 2015 2:18am
GBPJPY intraday-tech.

Some supply, some demand. Now looking for PA.

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  • #627
  • Jun 26, 2015 2:49am Jun 26, 2015 2:49am
GBPJPY intraday.

A typical "fakey" move on GJ that doesn't matter. Will look for other side of it (long) or it may fake again. Will continue watching and waiting for a signal.

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  • #628
  • Jun 26, 2015 2:51am Jun 26, 2015 2:51am
EURAUD intraday.

Currently watching this pair on 3 x TFs while it sits in M30 supply.

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  • #629
  • Jun 26, 2015 7:17am Jun 26, 2015 7:17am
Quoting simond2002
GBPJPY intraday. A typical "fakey" move on GJ that doesn't matter. Will look for other side of it (long) or it may fake again. Will continue watching and waiting for a signal. {image}
Close GJ

Took a while for this piece of dirt to give me a signal. Saw it. Trade it.

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  • #630
  • Jun 26, 2015 10:25am Jun 26, 2015 10:25am
GJ M30 tech

It's no coincidence or random matter that price is reacting here. A kind of double top in the short term is just one possibility. Will watch, wait and follow.

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  • #631
  • Jun 28, 2015 4:35pm Jun 28, 2015 4:35pm
Quoting simond2002
GJ M30 tech It's no coincidence or random matter that price is reacting here. A kind of double top in the short term is just one possibility. Will watch, wait and follow. {image}
I was looking for PA late Friday but it didn't set up for me and I didn't want to hold any trades over the weekend. Nevertheless, this chart is a very good example of the argument that price is factored in before anyso-called "news" event.

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  • #632
  • Jun 29, 2015 2:52am Jun 29, 2015 2:52am
EURAUD M30 tech.

Price has given the first rejection of the 1.4530 zone since London open.

I'm happy to trade this pair long and short today depending on the PA.

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  • #633
  • Jun 29, 2015 3:32am Jun 29, 2015 3:32am
Quoting skaapkop
sure, here is the current zones on usdzar 4hr using supply and demand, not so easy on the lower timeframes picking the correct zones to trade intraday for me but wil get there {image}
Hi skaapkop,

First of all I must apologise for not replying sooner. For some reason I didn't receive a notification that you'd posted.

If you're looking to the H4 to give you some kind of idea of direction and clearer zone and PA stuff for lower TF intraday trades then it's imperative to first really understand what "direction" is.

The concept of "direction" can be one of the hardest to grasp. If one looks at your entire chart it's fair to say that the overall "trending" direction was up, however, with fresh H4 supply coming in that also led to the break of a couple of swing points (white lines), then for the purposes of attempting to profit on an intraday basis at a lower TF it's also fair to say that the "direction" is down (actually this vagueness of the word "direction" as it's applied in trading is the reason why I stopped using the word direction altogether in my own trading for a while and started to use the phrase "current market cycle bias". It's a "wordy" phrase but gets the job done for me).

If I apply the phrase to your chart then once the fresh supply came in around 12.4211 and broke the two swing points the current H4 market cycle bias was down in my view and it was best to look for lower TF shorts. If you now return to your chart and check the H1/M30/M15/M5 you may find some supply zones and bearish PA that make sense.

You'll notice that I've circled the bullish engulfing PA at your light blue box. I used to buy these bullish engulfing candles in this context all the time and was constantly getting stopped out. Hopefully the reason why should now be a little clearer. Hope this helps.

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  • #634
  • Jun 29, 2015 9:32am Jun 29, 2015 9:32am
AUDUSD M5 tech

This pair is finally moving with some fresh supply coming in. Currently looking to short it with a decent PA unless silly stuff happens.

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  • #635
  • Jun 29, 2015 9:50am Jun 29, 2015 9:50am
Quoting simond2002
AUDUSD M5 tech This pair is finally moving with some fresh supply coming in. Currently looking to short it with a decent PA unless silly stuff happens. {image}
Ok, silly stuff happened with the impulsive move (marked with x) immediately correcting the supply. Time to watch and wait a bit more.

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  • #636
  • Jun 30, 2015 2:19am Jun 30, 2015 2:19am
EURAUD M15 tech

This pair bouncing in the right places

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  • #637
  • Jun 30, 2015 2:21am Jun 30, 2015 2:21am
GJ M5 tech

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  • #638
  • Jun 30, 2015 2:27am Jun 30, 2015 2:27am
AUDUSD H1

There's a H1 supply zone just above but I'm personally still not convinced that this pair wants to go way down, and the current PA looks more like accumulation to my eyes but we'll see. If shorts set up I'll react. If longs set up I'll react.

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  • #639
  • Jun 30, 2015 11:04am Jun 30, 2015 11:04am
Barrel scraping.

Getting a little p*issed off with this broker (IC Markets). Second time in as many days they've failed to fill the stop order forcing me to exit manually.

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  • #640
  • Jun 30, 2015 11:43am Jun 30, 2015 11:43am
Quoting simond2002
Barrel scraping. Getting a little p*issed off with this broker (IC Markets). Second time in as many days they've failed to fill the stop order forcing me to exit manually. {image}
Nice trade Simond. I find very frustrating trying to figure out which S/D areas are going to hold and which ones are going to be ignored. On your trade, how come did you pick the blue Demand area and not the one just above it? To my eyes the upper one looks stronger. I would like to know your thoughts about it.
Just for confirmation, but I think the answers is yes.....you entered once you noticed the price engulfing the previous two candles? Or there is another strong reason?
Cheers
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