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AUD/USD

  • #90,821
  • Jun 19, 2015 4:56am Jun 19, 2015 4:56am
We have reached the middle of the last few weeks' range again. Took some more profit now.
  • #90,822
  • Jun 19, 2015 7:49am Jun 19, 2015 7:49am
Have a great weekend traders. And then... Trading again! Noo.. I'm kidding, LOL. Just enjoying your weekend ^^V
I've failed many times, but I took the lessons,and never give up.God Bless.
  • #90,823
  • Jun 19, 2015 9:04am Jun 19, 2015 9:04am
Taking a long here. Price broke the highs of the consolidation zone and pulled back. Price is testing the intersecting TL and blue median line.

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  • #90,824
  • Jun 20, 2015 7:38am Jun 20, 2015 7:38am
Quoting ozboy
anyone is thinking what I'm thinking? {image}
nope
  • #90,825
  • Jun 20, 2015 8:14am Jun 20, 2015 8:14am
Quoting bluetoss
i am still surprised that AUDUSD pair went up by about 100 pips yesterday, no data no resistance. we, retail traders account for 5% and banks 95% of the trade worldwide. that may explain why...however taking into account that a day has passed, and from the chart it's more likely that they will sell by today what they reap yesterday. if not we shall wait till next week. even if USD is weakening, i see no reason that they will buy AUD, EURUSD went up is a good example of USD weakening instead.
Don't be too surprised. Im sure you've researched where the AUD is currently trading at, considering the monthly chart trendline.

The AUD was very cheap at 75/76 and I suspect the 76 area was where price settled following the lowering of the base rate to 2.00%

I can give you one reason to buy, because it is very cheap at current prices, hence your 100 pip move you highlighted. Other currency pairs are seeing prices not too distant from parity where the ozzy is significantly lower. Australia as a country is not on its backside and at 2.00% has a stronger base rate than the dollar.

76 has already proved itself 3 times as very solid support and whilst nobody knows whether price could push through it and below, i just wonder what it would take to do that ? We would then be heading towards 74 / 73 / 72 and i just don't see that happening. Note that the dollar is in a correction phase and the AUD is at a historical price point in correlation with the monthly long term chart which is an uptrend.

I am a buyer at present, but there will be opportunities for shorting along the way during its transition from current downtrend to the continuation of its long term uptrend
  • #90,826
  • Jun 20, 2015 11:04am Jun 20, 2015 11:04am
Aussie has held the 0.7500 - 0.75050 level. Now watching the 0.7825 if it gets above it, chances are it could retest the highs of 0.8150 and perhaps to 0.8250.
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  • #90,827
  • Jun 21, 2015 2:28am Jun 21, 2015 2:28am
i like your analysis but given the fact that RBA wants it to lower, they may cut interest rate again if talking it down doesn't work. technically looking at the Dail chart, it's still in downtrend. and yes, if USD weaken, AUD will strengthen, this may lead to them really cutting rate. not forgetting china( ozzy's 2nd biggest trade partner) has slowed down and commodity prices like their iron ore is all time low.

Quoting mrfigure
{quote} Don't be too surprised. Im sure you've researched where the AUD is currently trading at, considering the monthly chart trendline. The AUD was very cheap at 75/76 and I suspect the 76 area was where price settled following the lowering of the base rate to 2.00% I can give you one reason to buy, because it is very cheap at current prices, hence your 100 pip move you highlighted. Other currency pairs are seeing prices not too distant from parity where the ozzy is significantly lower. Australia as a country is not on its backside and at 2.00%...
  • #90,828
  • Jun 21, 2015 7:16am Jun 21, 2015 7:16am
Quoting bluetoss
i like your analysis but given the fact that RBA wants it to lower, they may cut interest rate again if talking it down doesn't work. technically looking at the Dail chart, it's still in downtrend. and yes, if USD weaken, AUD will strengthen, this may lead to them really cutting rate. not forgetting china( ozzy's 2nd biggest trade partner) has slowed down and commodity prices like their iron ore is all time low. {quote}

Well that's the theory, but looking at the commitment of traders, the position is shifting toward long position. I think that make sense, of all advanced countries in this world, australia is doing a lot better
  • #90,829
  • Jun 21, 2015 7:21am Jun 21, 2015 7:21am
commitment of traders only account for 5% where banks' trade count at 95%, they are the real movers.

Quoting grandia
{quote} Well that's the theory, but looking at the commitment of traders, the position is shifting toward long position. I think that make sense, of all advanced countries in this world, australia is doing a lot better
  • #90,830
  • Jun 21, 2015 7:39am Jun 21, 2015 7:39am
Quoting bluetoss
commitment of traders only account for 5% where banks' trade count at 95%, they are the real movers. {quote}
sure. but leveraged funds are professional traders, I would think that they should know what they are doing
From experience, they do give some insights
  • #90,831
  • Jun 21, 2015 7:14pm Jun 21, 2015 7:14pm
Hi all,

Just sharing this article.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...22-ghtzaz.html

Have a good trading week all.
  • #90,832
  • Jun 21, 2015 10:16pm Jun 21, 2015 10:16pm
aud/usd looking bearish in 1H chart-- falling out of the fork ? GL all
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Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #90,833
  • Jun 21, 2015 10:40pm Jun 21, 2015 10:40pm
Hi Guys
I'll be start shorting this from 7835 R38
Notice pivot at 7754 is major confluence
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #90,834
  • Jun 21, 2015 10:44pm Jun 21, 2015 10:44pm
I like to zoom out to see range patterns since I love trading range stacking orders.Notice green box I drew is basically 1 month of data.
Based on Aussie fundamentals only direction is down on long term.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #90,835
  • Jun 22, 2015 3:45am Jun 22, 2015 3:45am
The pair has been rejected from 0.78 barrier, dollar regain loss ground, immediately resistance level can be found at 0.7797, downside support is at 0.7734. I will keep eyes on Greece update today.
  • #90,836
  • Jun 22, 2015 3:59am Jun 22, 2015 3:59am
so far so good
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  • #90,837
  • Jun 22, 2015 5:48am Jun 22, 2015 5:48am
looking at PA, I believe we are going to test 0.78 today
  • #90,838
  • Jun 22, 2015 6:08am Jun 22, 2015 6:08am
Quoting Davit
I like to zoom out to see range patterns since I love trading range stacking orders.Notice green box I drew is basically 1 month of data. Based on Aussie fundamentals only direction is down on long term. {image}
Interesting comments Davit

On the monthly chart, given that you believe this is "only direction is down on long term", could you provide us with your target price below the very strong support levels of 75/76 which on the monthly chart is long term support of uptrend ?

Could you also provide us with the trades you have placed that are currently live, that support your own comments of a long term downtrend ?
Thanks Davit.
  • #90,839
  • Jun 22, 2015 6:21am Jun 22, 2015 6:21am
Quoting grandia
looking at PA, I believe we are going to test 0.78 today
price has been rejected by the 50hr SMA, I'm going short targeting 0.77
  • #90,840
  • Jun 22, 2015 6:22am Jun 22, 2015 6:22am
Quoting mrfigure
{quote} Interesting comments Davit On the monthly chart, given that you believe this is "only direction is down on long term", could you provide us with your target price below the very strong support levels of 75/76 which on the monthly chart is long term support of uptrend ? Could you also provide us with the trades you have placed that are currently live, that support your own comments of a long term downtrend ? Thanks Davit.
I trade always with fundamentals in mind. 75/76 is strong support however by Sept it will break down sending this to 73-70
RBA has already mentioned their intention of further cuts and Feds signaled most likely .25 hike this year and by in large market anticipates Sept as possible time frame.
I have nothing to prove to you and your tone is negative.Remember there is always someone on the other side of your trades.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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