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Let's Trade Options

  • #9,121
  • Jun 17, 2015 3:24pm Jun 17, 2015 3:24pm
Glad that ORCL didn't go ... . Would've breached the put side ... . Down 2.66 trading at 42.00 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,122
  • Jun 17, 2015 4:12pm Jun 17, 2015 4:12pm
Thinking of temporarily moving over to DIA for my index IC's/strangles ... . IVR is the highest of DIA/IWM/SPY ... . SPY short call vert boat 30-45 days out is full right now and I'm waiting for a dip to load matching put wings ... or not ... . Even a modest dip will probably take out my short calls verts in one fell swoop ... .

A DIA July 31 165/184.5 bearishly skewed short strangle is good for 1.39/72% POP/BE's at 163.61 and 185.89 ... . Not cheap to put on, though.

A DIA July 31 160/165/184/187 IC is good for .86/68% POP/BE's at 164.14 and 184.86; max risk of 4.14. For me, workable ... . Going to wait until the next 45 day out weekly becomes available ... . Give me some time to ponder ... .

Borrowing a play from Robyn's book, going IC with FXE:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FXE IC.jpg Size: 15 KB


I went out a little farther than she did to net a little extra cred ... .

The only other Dough idea I like is Tom's Team going long GLD via debit spread, but the way they've got it set up is with a 50% POP for a max potential profit of about 1.00; I'd prefer using a short put vert with higher POP, about half as much max profit, and then doubling up the trade size (July 31 108/111; 73% POP; .51 credit; BE 110.49).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,123
  • Jun 18, 2015 5:52am Jun 18, 2015 5:52am
Quoting The Fool
OMG Greece is saved!....
omg I guess the euro will rally either way
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,124
  • Jun 18, 2015 5:55am Jun 18, 2015 5:55am
looking at Jun puts and calls for SPY - puts iv almost 3x that of calls - you can go $3 otm and stlll get paid on a $2 put spread - Jun $208/$206 gets $0.31...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,125
  • Jun 18, 2015 6:04am Jun 18, 2015 6:04am
Quoting StrayDog
Sell the rip? Thinking about /ES July 2130/2150... for about $6.00 credit...
Sold one of those... /ES July 2130/2150 for $6.25 CR.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,126
  • Jun 18, 2015 6:18am Jun 18, 2015 6:18am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Sold one of those... /ES July 2130/2150 for $6.25 CR.
Friday gonna be interesting....if we close the week without a tweet about Greece ....maybe we can see a big selloff witching day....idk....I am settling into wait/see mode...tired of looking at these micro ranges on the indices....something's gotta give....someday
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,127
  • Jun 18, 2015 8:29am Jun 18, 2015 8:29am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Friday gonna be interesting....if we close the week without a tweet about Greece ....maybe we can see a big selloff witching day....idk....I am settling into wait/see mode...tired of looking at these micro ranges on the indices....something's gotta give....someday
Yep... wrong timing for that spread... will wait a while, got my eye on some higher ones, like 2140/2160... 2155/2175 and so on...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,128
  • Jun 18, 2015 10:05am Jun 18, 2015 10:05am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yep... wrong timing for that spread......
I heard that. Don't fight the Fed. I'm looking at having to eat some shit on the UVXY spread I put on yesterday......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,129
  • Jun 18, 2015 4:55pm Jun 18, 2015 4:55pm
Gonna keep my powder dry going into next week ... . The only thing I did today was put on a July 31 DIA IC for 1.13 and an July 31 FXE IC for 1.09; my GLD didn't fill, so I missed the magic carpet ride from 113 to 115+; will wait on GLD to drift back lower (111-12) before considering another entry there ... .

My SPY short call verts aren't looking happy right now, but plenty of time to be right yet (between 29 and 43 days). They're all good as long as price stays below 214 ... . I'll be pissed if these f'in nobbers push SPY past that. In an ideal world, I'd never have to roll for duration and credit ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,130
  • Jun 18, 2015 4:57pm Jun 18, 2015 4:57pm
Wouldn't this set-up be nice?:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UVXY Sell Put Fly.jpg Size: 119 KB


Only problem is that there's no bid on the 25 put ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,131
  • Jun 18, 2015 5:27pm Jun 18, 2015 5:27pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Wouldn't this set-up be nice?: {image} Only problem is that there's no bid on the 25 put ... .
Probably a little glitch in the system ... . Too tired to do the actual math ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,132
  • Jun 18, 2015 9:25pm Jun 18, 2015 9:25pm
Finally, ...finally, ..after months of waiting, ...now, as rosy fingers of Dawn creep up into the eastern sky, we hear of a miraculous feat of European solidarity: yes, the bankers have given Greece another chance. More time. More money. Europe now strides boldly ahead, leading humanity into a golden future where bankers never lose money and stock market rallies never end. Be long, friends....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,133
  • Jun 18, 2015 9:57pm Jun 18, 2015 9:57pm
Hello,

New to the forum. What brokers would you recommend for options trading?

Thanks.
  • #9,134
  • Jun 19, 2015 7:34am Jun 19, 2015 7:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I heard that. Don't fight the Fed. I'm looking at having to eat some shit on the UVXY spread I put on yesterday......
long vol just an excellent way to lose money...I shoulda known better....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,135
  • Jun 19, 2015 9:58am Jun 19, 2015 9:58am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} long vol just an excellent way to lose money...I shoulda known better....
One of the most dangerous trades last couple of years - bottom fishing on UVXY / VXX...
If anyone wants to make money buying them, it must be done when they are on the move, buying on pullbacks... They must be on a move, already going up, IMO.

I had stuff to do, so I missed today top on /ES -> maybe a good chance for adding to higher bear call spreads, like 2155/2175 or so.
Managed just to scalp /NQ a bit.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,136
  • Jun 19, 2015 10:05am Jun 19, 2015 10:05am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} One of the most dangerous trades last couple of years - bottom fishing on UVXY / VXX... If anyone wants to make money buying them, it must be done when they are on the move, buying on pullbacks... They must be on a move, already going up, IMO. I had stuff to do, so I missed today top on /ES -> maybe a good chance for adding to higher bear call spreads, like 2155/2175 or so. Managed just to scalp /NQ a bit.
yep, I succumbed to temptation. But I got out for a nickel loss. I must be more vigilant about being patient....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,137
  • Jun 19, 2015 3:43pm Jun 19, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yep, I succumbed to temptation. But I got out for a nickel loss. I must be more vigilant about being patient....
credit $0.36 in/out with a nickel loss and could have been full credit in the bank if I had had the chance to sit at the pc and wait, as the VIX jumped into the close. Moral: don't play short term trade strategies if you're not gonna have the time to manage them closely. Duh.....

...changing jobs this summer, will have a couple hrs a day freed up, will make trading easier.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,138
  • Jun 20, 2015 12:42am Jun 20, 2015 12:42am
COMING week expiry I have a double diagonal on SPY as shown - I need a drop below $207 on expiry day to make out well with the puts, or a move >$215 to make something good on the calls, might be a tall order either way
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-20_SPY.png Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-20_spy2.png Size: 53 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,139
  • Jun 20, 2015 12:54am Jun 20, 2015 12:54am
Quoting The Fool
Moral: don't play short term trade strategies if you're not gonna have the time to manage them closely. Duh.....
trading the tt way compares well to sweating out itm short option spreads on expiration day - almost always when I have gotten into trouble & lost money on trades, I had many chances to get out with profit @ 50% or better well before that. Lessons learned need to become habit - get into the habit of mechanically closing trades at good profit levels.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,140
  • Jun 20, 2015 7:48am Jun 20, 2015 7:48am
Quoting The Fool
trading the tt way compares well to sweating out itm short option spreads on expiration day - almost always when I have gotten into trouble & lost money on trades, I had many chances to get out with profit @ 50% or better well before that. Lessons learned need to become habit - get into the habit of mechanically closing trades at good profit levels.
I agree. I switched my short-term plays to scalping indices outright, with futures or CFDs.
Majority of option plays will be selling stuff, usually spreads, and occasionally naked selling.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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