Let's Trade Options

...unless I get cute and get them paid for somehow....too many losing debit spreads have been the ruin of my positive equity curve aspirations...

See below a small overview of FOMC moves for SPY, TLT & VXX. Surprisingly strong moves in VXX on non-pressco FOMC's...

lol, the actual sound of Janet Yellen's voice is like the gentle cooing of doves, music to the stock market's ears....

Yep, so f...ng calm ...
Doves are good, though... especially in the soup.

markets are drooling pre pressco already anticipating Granny Yellen's sweet words....look, the punch bowl is full.....it is truly a Golden Age...

Funny to see her image 'proven' by the data.

Hm, never tried it... I presume you're a hawk?

Sort of. About 95% of all my orders are short something... when I switched almost completely to trading indices, like DAX, /ES, /NQ... most of the time I just short the mofo. Put a fib r on the last down move of the SPX... Amazing how often the retracement goes all the way to 0.78... To the point.

addon -> SPX 60m chart (interesting part of the chart ):

If I get a move to fade, I'm down. Meanwhile, trying to get excited...can't do it anymore.

the "F" in HFT is for Fibonacci....

expectations for a dovish Fed pretty high, from what I can gather from the press - sometimes the crowd is wrong.....

was thinking about selling a 2-day UVXY bull put spread, short leg down at $36....but nah, I've sat on hands this long, I'll just be boring a little while longer...

hmmm ... fitty cent ..... ... maybe JY can stoke it at the press conference...

I sold a 2-day UVXY bull put spread, $36.5/$35, for $0.36 ... counting on Greece to keep things jumpy

I am tempted to sell a Jul FXE call spread, maybe $113 short....

Sell the rip?

Thinking about /ES July 2130/2150... for about $6.00 credit... (30% of the spread)
Will go 20 points wide, because it is like $2 wide on SPY...

Waiting to see IF SPX can go trough 2108/2110...
/SPX is more than 8 points higher than Sep /ES/

trying a 3c debit spread, Jun FXE $109.5/$109 puts - needs to erase today's move to b/e at $109.5

well I hung it out there on that one.

I had hoped for a better SPY rip to sell....maybe we get some follow through upside tomorrow? I need to sell $2 call spreads against Jul $197/$199 short puts....clock is ticking

OMG Greece is saved! Angela Merkel and Christine LaGarde are flying over the streets of Athens in their hovercraft, throwing euros down upon the throngs like candy! God bless all Europeans and bankers, every one!


jk....I am waiting for the tweet, tho....

Yihhaaaaaaaaaaa, where exactly, want some... Show me the money! Give some moni to the poor, please, give, dirty moni... BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH!



Show me the moneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeey!

I have asked Santa Claus to talk to Christine Lagarde to please fix Greece at the eurogroup meetings tomorrow so I don't have to hear about it anymore. I have been good.

Well that ADBE earnings play worked out -- in for a 3.36 credit and out for 1.68:



My ORCL didn't fill ... .

Unfortunately, they don't always work out that way (still nibbling away at a KORS strangle that went awry; mofo dropped 10 points post-earnings, shot clean through the short put; I'm now inverted, nibbling away at it here and there; maybe months before I'm at scratch).

They need to do a Market Measures segment on earnings plays, frankly. I'm kinda getting the hang of it ... . I just pull up Dough's "Notable Stocks", look for high IVR U/L's, look at IV differentials to gauge whether there is going to be a post-earnings IV implosion, and then see whether either an IC or a strangle will net enough credit for it to be worthwhile. A lot of the time, it isn't ... . I usually only have to go through 3-5 U/L's every afternoon to see whether any of the pickings are good; at least half usually aren't -- the U/L is too cheap, there isn't enough pre-earnings IV, yada yada ... . For example, here are the earnings plays for the next week or so:



The U/L's that are within 0-1 days of Earnings Reports I just kind of cross off, since we're too close to bother with those. I would cross BBRY off cause the U/L is too cheap. Out of the remainder, LEN's IVR is low, at least seven days out, leaving me with MON, BBBY, NKE, and MU to consider in the next few days. (I'm already in MON with a strangle, but wasn't able to get out pre-earnings profitably, so I'll just ride it through ... .) BBBY's and NKE's IV differentials aren't bad, but MU crushes a bit more in back months in spite of its IVR. A BBBY June 26 64.5/74.5 strangle will net a 1.10 credit; NKE June 26 100/109 strangle, 1.32; MU, < .50 (probs not worth it as of right now (although there are a few days left before even considering putting that on); besides, when your choice is between something with an 80+ IVR and something with a 50 IVR, gonna go with the 80+).