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  • #341
  • Jun 15, 2015 7:17pm Jun 15, 2015 7:17pm
Changing the target again. The market has made this latest presumed top a little bit trickier now, and that is a good thing. I don't know, I'm looking at this pair and I don't see how it won't at least go to 90.25 before it attempts any real bottom. I really doubt it will stop there, but there is a decent chance of pullback from there. I'm trying not to get greedy here, but at the same time I don't want to give away easy money if I can help it. Setting target to 90.25.
  • #342
  • Jun 16, 2015 10:34pm Jun 16, 2015 10:34pm
Quoting Zappa
Changing the target again. The market has made this latest presumed top a little bit trickier now, and that is a good thing. I don't know, I'm looking at this pair and I don't see how it won't at least go to 90.25 before it attempts any real bottom. I really doubt it will stop there, but there is a decent chance of pullback from there. I'm trying not to get greedy here, but at the same time I don't want to give away easy money if I can help it. Setting target to 90.25.
You seeing this GBP NZD move? Crazy move to upside lately....... I think a top is near.. 2.25175 will be interesting......
  • #343
  • Jun 18, 2015 5:33am Jun 18, 2015 5:33am
And now in AUD JPY we have an even trickier presumed top, making it very clear that if it drops from here we are going all the way down to 84.50 and possibly much lower. Changing target to 84.50.
  • #344
  • Jun 18, 2015 5:37am Jun 18, 2015 5:37am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} You seeing this GBP NZD move? Crazy move to upside lately....... I think a top is near.. 2.25175 will be interesting......
CK87!! How ya been, senor?

Yeah, GBPNZD going wild. I had a forecast on that pair a few posts ago. I wouldn't dare of going short that pair right now. It just went through a 4-year bottoming process!

You make a killing on AUDNZD? I remember you were very bullish at the bottom.
  • #345
  • Jun 19, 2015 3:22pm Jun 19, 2015 3:22pm
Not quite ready to move the stop closer yet, but I seriously doubt we'll be seeing 96.30 again anytime soon. The way price has come down from there is exactly how it should look if it's going much further. 96.30 was also a perfect spot to turn at, as far as taking out stops is concerned.
  • #346
  • Jun 19, 2015 5:34pm Jun 19, 2015 5:34pm
And here's a trade that I think has a very high probability of success. I only take one trade at a time anymore, but I'd definitely take this trade if I weren't already short AUDJPY.

Go long EURAUD near this closing price with stop/target/entry in red. A 1:1 trade.
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  • #347
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:25pm Jun 24, 2015 6:25pm
Still letting the bulls wear themselves out while bears build size. That's what I'm seeing anyways. I think the high today will probably hold.

And here's a forecast. It helps to visualize how a market can move where I think it will go, even if it turns out to be much different than what actually happens. Just being able to see the possibility makes me more confident that price will go in that direction, which is all that really matters. I would like to see a strong, but controlled ride downwards.
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  • #348
  • Jun 25, 2015 5:05pm Jun 25, 2015 5:05pm
Here's another pair that looks ready for a nasty reversal.

A short entry from current price with stop/target in red would be a winner, I think.
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  • #349
  • Jun 25, 2015 5:15pm Jun 25, 2015 5:15pm
And AUDJPY buyers drying up with each passing day. This is a really solid top we have here. This is going to drop anytime now, and drop hard it will! With such a large amount of fuel spent in this one area, there won't be any buyers coming around for a while. 84.00 is bare minimum to take from this trade, and bare minimum is HUGE!
  • #350
  • Edited 11:58pm Jun 26, 2015 12:12am | Edited 11:58pm
Quoting Zappa
And AUDJPY buyers drying up with each passing day. This is a really solid top we have here. This is going to drop anytime now, and drop hard it will! With such a large amount of fuel spent in this one area, there won't be any buyers coming around for a while. 84.00 is bare minimum to take from this trade, and bare minimum is HUGE!
Think I like GBP JPY better. You're probably right though.. AUD JPY looks weak, could be better short than GBP right now... AUD and NZD been taking a beating....
  • #351
  • Jun 28, 2015 9:43am Jun 28, 2015 9:43am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Think I like GBP JPY better. You're probably right though.. AUD JPY looks weak, could be better short than GBP right now... AUD and NZD been taking a beating....
GBPAUD might have a pullback, but that pair still looks strong. AUDNZD looks over-extended, and needs a pullback to take out the traders who got in too easily.
  • #352
  • Jun 28, 2015 2:27pm Jun 28, 2015 2:27pm
Looks like a big gap down on AUDJPY. Sweet! About time I'm on the right side of these moves. Been tricked out at last second so many times before. Took me forever to have complete confidence in my skills and let myself win.

Next few moves maybe?
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  • #353
  • Jun 28, 2015 5:49pm Jun 28, 2015 5:49pm
Glad I didn't take the EURAUD trade, as that one's not looking so good anymore.

Meanwhile, AUDJPY is moving fast. A lot of possibilities on how it can come down, but if it free falls down to 91.15 in the next few hours, I will be looking for any signs of strong buyers. I might get out down there if a return to fill the gap looks highly likely. I must see strong evidence of strong buyers before I exit trade. If it is a controlled move down, I will sit on my hands.
  • #354
  • Jun 30, 2015 9:09am Jun 30, 2015 9:09am
AUDJPY continues to wear out buyers while shorts add size. EURJPY will probably be the biggest mover south, though I am sticking with my AUDJPY trade.
  • #355
  • Jul 1, 2015 6:42am Jul 1, 2015 6:42am
AUDJPY rally should be done with now. I can see massive selling to close this week. Let's see if the vision is actually going to happen.
  • #356
  • Jul 7, 2015 5:43am Jul 7, 2015 5:43am
Quoting Zappa
AUDJPY rally should be done with now. I can see massive selling to close this week. Let's see if the vision is actually going to happen.
Looking good-- XXX JPY in trouble
  • #357
  • Jul 7, 2015 11:41am Jul 7, 2015 11:41am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Looking good-- XXX JPY in trouble
Yes, so far so good.

If we see 86.00 this week, I'll take profits there and either wait to re-enter on a 250+ pip pullback, or find another pair to trade.
  • #358
  • Jul 8, 2015 4:00pm Jul 8, 2015 4:00pm
Might be wishful thinking, but I see a massive drop down past 86.00 in the next 24 hours. Got a target at 86.00.
  • #359
  • Jul 9, 2015 5:50am Jul 9, 2015 5:50am
Quoting Zappa
Might be wishful thinking, but I see a massive drop down past 86.00 in the next 24 hours. Got a target at 86.00.
Yeah not likely, could take a couple months. Or could just happen this week
  • #360
  • Jul 9, 2015 9:08am Jul 9, 2015 9:08am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Yeah not likely, could take a couple months. Or could just happen this week
I can assure you this won't take months.

As for today, there is still time for a quick crash to the lows at 86.36. A 500+ pip day in AUDJPY is not unheard of. Those days usually happen right at the top or at the bottom. Not that I think it will be a lasting bottom, just one that I'll happily exit out of. I don't know if today will end up being one of those days, but I don't see this weekly candle ending anywhere but down from here. There is great potential for a nasty fall even with only 7 hours left on the daily bar. And I'm not ruling out that the big day happens tomorrow either, but gut feeling says today. Free fall should be about to commence if I'm right.
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