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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,641
  • Jun 18, 2015 10:44am Jun 18, 2015 10:44am

Quoting chester123
Hi Sissie, a question: what would be your stance on this rate mode trading now = after FOMC? It seems to me that the FED was not the necassary trigger even though it was only very slightly dowish. Given the stressed data dependence - does it mean that the entry into RMT could be just "gradual" ( ) if the data are coming good? Given the fact that next FED meeting is at the end of July = i.e. next big potential event-trigger of RMT is pretty far away. {quote} Plus when you say its best to closely tract the intraday moves. Is it because the Fed...


Good questions!

  1. what would be your stance on this rate mode trading now = after FOMC?

    1. In my view we are officially in RTM period.
    2. Within the next 6 months we have a hike (or two).
    3. For the flow (in general and simple words): sell as high as you can until September.


  2. does it mean that the entry into RMT could be just "gradual"

    1. ​Yes without any last minute externalities. We are going for gradual hikes at the beginning of the rates cycle


  3. when you say its best to closely tract the intraday moves. Is it because the Fed was pretty much somewhere between these two scenarios (Slightly dowish but ...

    1. ​Yes, as I mentioned yesterday after the FOMC. The FED was in between Slightly dovish and neutral. Thats why we didn't break up quickly (it wasn't enough short term impulse in the reaction) and tracking closely the following sessions was/is important for markets to have time to digest and make their final say about it ...​


  4. ​​ouve drawn and its unclear now where the market is heading?

    1. ​No not really. You need to add context otherwise you are interpreting my comment about the intraday flows of the news with the actual swing in play.
    2. The swing in play (the one I am trading and talking about cause the pending conversation with some posters here and in PM) comes from late May from the test on the 1.087x and later updated for reloading at 1.122x (check some backposts) and it aimed to minimum a test of highs 1.144x (right now) and the extension 1.178x with a break with dovish FED June.
    3. More than unclear, the FED was soft but not soft enough to trigger the break in the intraday flows from the news (as discussed yesterday) so without a break there is no shake and is nothing you can do until then except (also discussed yesterday) trail stops on failure at these levels...​


  5. ....mean setting new year high in recent swing and invalidation of the RMT

    1. Not at all. Why?
    2. Every major continuation move, despite the origin (rates or else) will ALWAYS start with a retrace/pulback to load as high or as low as possible.
    3. The only thing we are talking right now is when this last wave retrace up ends not if we have a new uptrend or if the major swing is invalid or if Rates are not in play.

Let me wrapped up very clearly. After this FOMC Rates are in play. From now until September we have loading time pre hikes. From September onwards (till Jan 2016 for the mid term swing) we have the momentum waves with the actual rates.

I am personally (and by experience alone so take it as you want) trading and would prefer (expect) a clean sweep in the euro cleaning everybody at the highs in a fast in and out leg and to mark the high of the year.

If it doesn't happen and the 1.14xx hold again? ... At these particular levels I wont lose my sleep as the only thing left is the extension on a swing retrace that just feed the ego and please the small greedy side we all have as a traders when you are deep in the money in a swing....

I hope it clarify your points....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,642
  • Jun 18, 2015 11:41am Jun 18, 2015 11:41am
....and here we go with Greece as expected today.... a new "deal"/ last minute technicality/ kicking the can for the 1 mill time ...and now we can finally move without the dark cloud on top ...

Watch out until the roll as without Greece in the background we are set to finish the FED move from yesterday .... Tightening sit bells here...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,643
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:56pm Jun 18, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting build11
... that explains the "mofu" in detail or is studying Gators posts the best way. Thanks peace
Click on his name & search. It worked for me..
I'm not being rude, Peace
  • #135,644
  • Jun 18, 2015 1:07pm Jun 18, 2015 1:07pm
Quoting build11
Question for Hathor , Miss pips , PharmOr or any other MOFUs out there. This method, seems to be fib based, fits in to how I trade . Always trying to learn anything that might help in entry and exits. To figure this method out , I've been reading a lot of Gators old posts . ( from what I read , Gator seems to be the one that came up with this ) and studying everyones posts and charts . My question , Is there a thread ( or section in a thread ) that explains the "mofu" in detail or is studying Gators posts the best way. Thanks peace
Check his posts between 2009-2011 in this thread, you will get the idea.
  • #135,645
  • Jun 18, 2015 1:48pm Jun 18, 2015 1:48pm
Quoting build11
Question for Hathor , Miss pips , PharmOr or any other MOFUs out there. This method, seems to be fib based, fits in to how I trade . Always trying to learn anything that might help in entry and exits. To figure this method out , I've been reading a lot of Gators old posts . ( from what I read , Gator seems to be the one that came up with this ) and studying everyones posts and charts . My question , Is there a thread ( or section in a thread ) that explains the "mofu" in detail or is studying Gators posts the best way. Thanks peace
I'd say 2012 was the year that helped me the most @ Rockerzeus

build- miss pips went into detail about mofus in this thread not to long ago, you may want to check her posts and the conversation surrounding it. If gator is the #1 mofuer, Mr. Hatch is #2. His posts are useful as well.

I wouldnt say its a closely guarded trading secret, more like those of us that know & practice it went through the pains of learning it, which involves a lot of homework and reading....not for the lazy, or those looking for a how-to. Do the homework, and you'll be welcomed with open arms....

Good luck!
  • #135,646
  • Jun 18, 2015 7:07pm Jun 18, 2015 7:07pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}

....mean setting new year high in recent swing and invalidation of the RMT
Not at all. Why?
.... sisse
Pardon me sisse, does it mean that it is better to close eyes and buy dollar until it is over around September?
TIA
  • #135,647
  • Jun 18, 2015 7:09pm Jun 18, 2015 7:09pm
Thanks all
Wolf and man ---- Started at the beginning of Gators posts . About 150 in now . No rudeness detected . Thanks

Rock -- Thanks for narrowing it down . That helps alot . Gator has almost 52k in posts .

PharmOr --- I think that Miss pips post and conversations are what got me interested in the concept . Have to go back and reread . Hatch too !! Well at least he only has 10.5 k posts .

Thanks again You guys rock

Peace
Dennis
Peace
  • #135,648
  • Jun 19, 2015 12:51am Jun 19, 2015 12:51am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote}Bear's will capitulate with a confirmed break of 1.1382 with dovish support from the FED.
Bears holding on the retrace after the break failed yesterday. 1.128 still interesting for any new entries, today or next week. Looks like an intraday break down of 1.1336 first to test that number and then another move up to try for the 1.1382 break.
  • #135,649
  • Edited 4:58am Jun 19, 2015 1:39am | Edited 4:58am
Quoting build11
Thanks all Wolf and man ---- Started at the beginning of Gators posts . About 150 in now . No rudeness detected . Thanks Rock -- Thanks for narrowing it down . That helps alot . Gator has almost 52k in posts . PharmOr --- I think that Miss pips post and conversations are what got me interested in the concept . Have to go back and reread . Hatch too !! Well at least he only has 10.5 k posts . Thanks again You guys rock Peace Dennis
For another take on this concept, you can also read Bemac's ICCE thread. His concept is similar but different. Basically what he says is that we can look at almost any higher tf swing and when we put a fib on it, we will see, most times, that price stalled at the 50. Why? Because the big boys already knew where they were going with it, and they took half off at fifty. So we can reverse engineer the target if we guess the 50 correctly, and then we have our direction, target zone and invalidation zone.
Edit: It's like AB=CD with C happening at a mid you are guessing at.

Whereas, Gator's idea basically is more like one stop in the 50 zone wont be enough for the big boys to load up for the really good swings. It's more like AB=CD, with C happening around the already known mid.

Example: If you are using Bemac's method, you would see the PA between 1378 and 1363 in the chart below and you would use that to project the target of 1303, by assuming where the 50 line is. The fib on the swing with 1303 as the 100% line would have been in place before it actually hit there. If you are using Gators method you assume that if it's going to be a really good move, one stop there won't have been enough and wait for the evidence of that to manifest. (Of course there are all sorts of refinements, and usually in both methods higher tfs are preferred as more reliable.

Edit 2: Question for the orthodox mofuers: Now that I'm comparing the methods, I'm wondering if anyone has ever noticed if it makes a difference if, in the swing, there has already been a big pause at the fifty, before it gets to the 100 like you see in the swing below, before it comes back for a refill. In other words, has anybody ever tracked whether the chances of success are better or worse when you see that? I know I like to see the other fib lines respected, but I've never tracked the effect of a big pause at the fifty before it returns a second time. (Or on the likelihood that it will
make it all the way back for a second refill, or just fall a bit short.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bemac.jpg Size: 503 KB
  • #135,650
  • Jun 19, 2015 4:31am Jun 19, 2015 4:31am
Quoting sisse
{quote}...I am personally (and by experience alone so take it as you want) trading and would prefer (expect) a clean sweep in the euro cleaning everybody at the highs in a fast in and out leg and to mark the high of the year. If it doesn't happen and the 1.14xx hold again? ... At these particular levels I wont lose my sleep as the only thing left is the extension on a swing retrace that just feed the ego and please the small greedy side we all have as a traders when you are deep in the money...
Yearly high is currently at 1.19761 - if reached TP1, than it would be a great jump for TP2, isn't it?
Yesterday's false deal could be TP2 - 1.14362?
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,651
  • Jun 19, 2015 4:39am Jun 19, 2015 4:39am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} For another take on this concept, you can also read Bemac's ICCE thread. His concept is similar but different. Basically what he says is that we can look at almost any higher tf swing and when we put a fib on it, we will see, most times, that price stalled at the 50. Why? Because the big boys already knew where they were going with it, and they took half off at fifty. So we can reverse engineer the target if we guess the 50 correctly, and they we have our direction, target zone and invalidation zone. Edit: It's like AB=CD with C happening...
This is very helpful, thank you.
  • #135,652
  • Jun 19, 2015 5:03am Jun 19, 2015 5:03am
[quote=MissPips;8335852]{quote} For another take on this concept, you can also read Bemac's ICCE thread. Edit

2 thumbs up for this post Miss pips

This is the basic concept i use but i was using the 38.2 / 50 / 61.8 to determine the start of my c-d leg ( with a specfic starting point for the a-b leg)
although this works for me and allows for a tight stop , I miss a lot of set ups . I mean ALOT !! Nothing worse than seeing a entry miss by 3 or 4 pips and run straight to your target .
With 2 different concepts to integrate into my method, I believe I have a lot of work ahead of me .
Lets see , combined thats about 65k posts , add trying to read this thread in its entirety (some of the best traders ever on ff have or are still posting on this thread )
I will probally be MIA until mid (pun intended) 2016 . And will still finish before this Greece thingy is resolved .

Much thanks

Peace
Dennis
Peace
  • #135,653
  • Jun 19, 2015 5:19am Jun 19, 2015 5:19am
Quoting build11
Quoting MissPips
{quote} And will still finish before this Greece thingy is resolved
...
.
  • #135,654
  • Jun 19, 2015 5:22am Jun 19, 2015 5:22am
Quoting historian
{quote} This is very helpful, thank you.
You're welcome!
  • #135,655
  • Jun 19, 2015 5:48am Jun 19, 2015 5:48am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} more like those of us that know & practice it went through the pains of learning it, which involves a lot of homework and reading....not for the lazy, or those looking for a how-to. Do the homework, and you'll be welcomed with open arms.... Good luck!
Thanks will work hard to earn my dollars cos i'm not here to get free signal.

Also thanks sisse for simplifying some of the terms -

  1. For the flow (in general and simple words): sell as high as you can until September.

  • #135,656
  • Jun 19, 2015 6:03am Jun 19, 2015 6:03am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Yearly high is currently at 1.19761 - if reached TP1, than it would be a great jump for TP2,
Why aiming to the yearly high?. That level is out of range.

From a strictly TA point of view a simple tick and rejection back down 1.154x will set the yearly high. Anything else (the overshoot) to 1.178x and max 1.184x is just how to play an overshot extension (or in other words, the technical reference for the potential T2 target if there is a break of the 1.14xx handle)

*** [Note] When I say set the current high as the yearly [or any other Tf] high I mean setting/guaranteeing/fixing/confirming/etc, the current number (1.197x in this case) as the yearly high....that piece of information alone is PURE gold in any TF....).

isn't it? Yesterday's false deal could be TP2 - 1.14362?

No is not in my books. T2 final wave target only come with a break in order to complete the 6 and final leg of the zigzag we are discussing. The test 1.14xx handle was/has been the T1 target.

Most of time in the last leg on a retracement we get the exhaustion leg. However, if the current wave get truncated (no break no shake ...the truncate area is exactly 1.144x/1.139x as discussed as a partial target before), the mid term wave to parity (the yummy one for the rest of the year) will be very very choppy until we break the floor meaning extended wide chop zone prolly all summer...

--------- -------------

For now nothing to see, Greece deal seems to be one more time a done deal (pseudo default and kicking the can to Dec and put the IMF on the backend). But we wont get anything until politicians have their dick contest competition for their national consituencies on Monday and to the end of the week where everything will fade again ...until next tranche of repayments next month ...

We'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,657
  • Jun 19, 2015 6:37am Jun 19, 2015 6:37am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Why aiming to the yearly high?. That level is out of range. From a strictly TA point of view a simple tick and rejection back down 1.154x will set the yearly high. Anything else (the overshoot) to 1.178x and max 1.184x is just how to play an overshot extension (or in other words, the technical reference for the potential T2 target if there is a break of the 1.14xx handle) *** [Note] When I say set the current high as the yearly [or any other Tf] high I mean setting/guaranteeing/fixing/confirming/etc, the current number (1.197x in this case)...
Thanks for the detailed answer, than I put myself into patience mode.

I have the same from my signals, but was a bit sceptical...
On the two highest TF still no sell signal, so bull drives the story, would not like to sell until at least weekly sell signal comes.

- Intraday signals: Mainly sell signals
H1: Buy signal at 1.131xx
H4: Sell signal at 1.136xx - (but now forming a H4 buy, but ~90minutes till confirmation)

- Higher TF signals
Daily: Sell signal at 1.135xx
Weekly: Buy signal at 1.099xx
Monthly: Buy signal at 1.073xx
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,658
  • Jun 19, 2015 7:01am Jun 19, 2015 7:01am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Thanks for the detailed answer, than I put myself into patience mode. I have the same from my signals, but was a bit sceptical... On the two highest TF still no sell signal, so bull drives the story, would not like to sell until at least weekly sell signal comes. - Intraday signals: Mainly sell signals H1: Buy signal at 1.131xx H4: Sell signal at 1.136xx - (but now forming a H4 buy, but ~90minutes till confirmation) - Higher TF signals Daily: Sell signal at 1.135xx Weekly: Buy signal at 1.099xx Monthly: Buy signal at 1.073xx
Can you specify dates of monthly and weekly buy signals? Thanks
  • #135,659
  • Jun 19, 2015 7:12am Jun 19, 2015 7:12am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Can you specify dates of monthly and weekly buy signals? Thanks
Of course:
Weekly: Buy signal at 1.099xx - [Open: 2015.05.25 / Close: 2015.05.29.]
Monthly: Buy signal at 1.073xx - [Open: 2015.03.01. / Close: 2015.03.31.]
Signal confirmation is at close.

Edit:
Open: 2015.05.24. -> Open: 2015.05.25.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,660
  • Jun 19, 2015 8:17am Jun 19, 2015 8:17am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Thanks for the detailed answer, than I put myself into patience mode. I have the same from my signals, but was a bit sceptical... On the two highest TF still no sell signal, so bull drives the story, would not like to sell until at least weekly sell signal comes. - Intraday signals: Mainly sell signals H1: Buy signal at 1.131xx H4: Sell signal at 1.136xx - (but now forming a H4 buy, but ~90minutes till confirmation) - Higher TF signals Daily: Sell signal at 1.135xx Weekly: Buy signal at 1.099xx Monthly: Buy signal at 1.073xx...
Confirmed H4 Buy signal at 1.131xx.
f(z)=z2+c
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