Disliked{quote} {quote} Thank you for the warm welcome Professor TAH. It is much appreciated. It is a great honour to be a part of this great community of traders. I shall do my best to contribute to the best of my abilities, as and when time permits. With that said, on to my first trade. Short Trade GBPUSD: Weekly Chart: I see that price is near the top of a channel as indicated by the red line. Volume indicates potentially weekly exhaustion to come based on the prior week's high volume. The latter point is very speculative but it's a clue, nonetheless....Ignored
Trader555.
You sequenced down thru the charts nicely. Good points made. Only two things I can think of at the present to contribute:
1. You mentioned our "Trend" being flattish. The purpose of it is to provide a visual of momentum to carry a trade. Traders addicted to seeking "early" entries won't like this, but an entry should not be made until our "Trend" adequately bows to momentum and points the way, up or down. Traders always make their own choices, of course.
2. The Week chart offers more in addition to price achieving the TL and that volume might be indicative of failing interest at these highs, which is another way of saying the MMs are having a more difficult time of it now attempting to fill SM short orders because DM is finally getting smarter. What the Week chart offers in addition I show on the attached picture, namely that price is exactly at a very important level historically.
I would personally like to reinforce that we cannot know how the MMs will move price next. Many-a-time in the past when the Robber Banks were executing short squeezes I was surprised at how they were able to keep price going higher. I mean, the good Lord did not make us humans that dumb, that there would still be anyone alive thinking going long would be a good trade! Yet, easy as you please, the Robber Banks continued price upwards as though there were no shortage of DM longs. And the only rationale I can provide for this strange fact is that the interlinked Robber Banks must have been buy/selling to each other - perhaps in nano-lots if their price manipulations really required an amount - in order to so easily take price as high as they seemingly wanted to. If there was a "prize" up higher, some idiot outfit figuring if price got that high it should go higher and so had a juicy long order sitting up there, then the colluding interlinked Robber Banks had no difficulty simply taking the price up there and triggering all such pending long orders, taking the short side of them, and then running the price right back down!
The bottom line is, we cannot know how the MMs will move price next. And so, even if it seems that longs should be nearly extinct and so SM shorts shouldn't be so dumb as to even feel the need for a SL, the MMs have never let that bother them in taking the price higher and higher, and finding - almost magically - even more liquidity for filling short orders! Of course, the same is true for extreme moves downwards. It is another reason to beware of "early" entries and if using our Trend, then to wait for it to have convincingly bowed - up or down - to the advent of momentum.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Anyway, the original premise was that this would go higher, for "JPY reasons" ahead of the still coming JPY high impact releases. I still hold to that premise. Meanwhile, price has bottomed and started back up. I am currently still red about 43 pips average on my entries. When I close the trade, I will post on it again. Money...
All I need is a good trade a day.
