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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #1,701
  • Jun 18, 2015 11:21am Jun 18, 2015 11:21am
UJ, M5 +4.9 and thanks TAH for the heads up on this pair as I was zoned in on GU all AM. Got my scalp and the lake is calling my name, so gotta go.....
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Keep It Simple
  • #1,702
  • Jun 18, 2015 11:33am Jun 18, 2015 11:33am
Quoting traderathome
USDJPY Long Trade Open: This entry is predicated on the continuing assumption of bulls, but that have now retraced price to previous consolidation area. No TP yet. {image}
USDJPY Long Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 15.4 pips average.

This was the second scalp trade on this pair today.
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  • #1,703
  • Edited 12:24pm Jun 18, 2015 11:33am | Edited 12:24pm
That was loong waiting untill GBP/JPY trade close
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  • #1,704
  • Jun 18, 2015 11:39am Jun 18, 2015 11:39am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURUSD marijan993, Today was no day to mess with this one. You were correct. Look at it. MMs still keeping price straddling the fence. What they are doing is forcing anyone who wants to play their guessing game, to trade in this price area the MMs are keeping the price in. And, on the basis of "Is price above or below..." and nothing else, we cannot be sure if the MMs are busy at filling short or long orders with DM on the other side of whichever it is. Personally, I think the effort now is towards the filling of SM short orders,...
EURUSD Short Trade Open:

I think we just saw the MM's stop hunt on the shorts. No TP at this time.
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  • #1,705
  • Jun 18, 2015 11:45am Jun 18, 2015 11:45am
EURAUD and GBPJPY is preparing for upmove I guess. EURAUD last red volume bar move seems sucking the long stops around RDL.
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  • #1,706
  • Jun 18, 2015 11:52am Jun 18, 2015 11:52am
NZDJPY

Another one someone here might be interested in. This is a possible reversal back to the upside, getting set up to happen. Time will tell.
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  • #1,707
  • Jun 18, 2015 11:59am Jun 18, 2015 11:59am
@tah you had NZDJPY long trade and it moved downside strongly. I am curious about how you manage that. It is one of the important thing to manage such moves.
  • #1,708
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:06pm Jun 18, 2015 12:06pm
GBPUSD

The MMs made an investment today to push this up again. Rising volume into the highs and with the two highest volume TFs being PVA pin bars thrusting up thru a whole Level, we have a very strong PVSRA indication of bears now. To further support this indication, just look at the dismal volume that followed thru the day. Nobody is interested in going long, and so the MMs have no choice but to start lowering the price in search of DM long orders to help them close whatever SM longs need closing, and to help them fill SM short orders. Just my take on it, but those PVA pin bars speak loud and clear.
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  • #1,709
  • Edited 12:48pm Jun 18, 2015 12:13pm | Edited 12:48pm
Quoting MoneyTalks58
@tah you had NZDJPY long trade and it moved downside strongly. I am curious about how you manage that. It is one of the important thing to manage such moves.
NZDJPY

Yeah, I really goofed on this trade, MoneyTalks58.

It is still running. The setup was beautiful! Then suddenly it turned. And that is when I goofed. Instead of quickly cutting the red, I started adding.

Anyway, the original premise was that this would go higher, for "JPY reasons" ahead of the still coming JPY high impact releases. I still hold to that premise. Meanwhile, price has bottomed and started back up. I am currently still red about 43 pips average on my entries. When I close the trade, I will post on it again.

Money Management:

There are two schools of thought, both previously discussed on this thread. Some salient points are as follows.

1. A hard SL should be a "fail safe" or "catastrophic event" SL. If you set a close-in SL, it will frequently get hit even though the trade later moves as your trade anticipated. This is the job for a Mental SL, so you and only you decide where and when to close a trade.

2. One school of thought for closing a trade is to have a tight mental SL, and cut the red at a place of your choosing but not allowing a loss of more than say 20-30 pips maximum. And, BTW, this school of thought also specifies only one entry per trade,....large or small....your choice, but only one!

3. The other school of thought is to let your red trade "work itself out" and maybe even to take advantage of what look like good opportunities, though the trade is red. This involves "averaging down" and holding onto the belief your trade is still valid even as price continues against you. This results in account draw downs. This can go bad, real bad, and keep going real bad. Your PVSRA needs to be real good. You need to trade very light relative to account size. And you need to be real certain as to when to: fold, hold or add.

I continue to work to break the habbit of #3. I believe #2 is the far better money management method. Why? Granted, nobody likes the idea of frequently losing 20-30 pips by having to close their trade per their mental SL part of their money management dictate. But all it takes is one "sure trade" that has gone red and has been added to over and over again, and continues to go red until you are forced to close it, to cause losses that exceed the losses of dozens of trades closed with 20-30 pips lost individually.

tah
  • #1,710
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:37pm Jun 18, 2015 12:37pm
Dear PVSRA family,

it is great to read such a fantastic thread even if I cannot trade.

I just received a PM from Trader555 that started something great with one of the first petition for Tah online.

I would just like to officialy invite him to join us and thank him once again for all of us.

Fisher755
PVSRA
  • #1,711
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:37pm Jun 18, 2015 12:37pm
Usd/Chf opened too late ..
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  • #1,712
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:39pm Jun 18, 2015 12:39pm
Hi All,

Fantastic thread - a special thanks to Professor TAH for setting this up. I'll try to post a bit more as I get to grips with PVSRA.

I've just shorted GBPUSD.

I will post the full details + charts in about an hour or so when I get some time.

Thanks,

Trader555
  • #1,713
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:56pm Jun 18, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURUSD Short Trade Open: I think we just saw the MM's stop hunt on the shorts. No TP at this time. {image}
EURUSD Short Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 38.8 pips average.

Probably, looking at the resultant PA, the move up was a stop hunt of shorts, but since price continues to be supported, the MMs might still be looking for longs to place orders and thereby continue to provide liquidity for shorting up above the half Level. And, with continued shorting up here, another stop hunt is also possible before any true start of a bear swing. So, closed and will wait to see more.
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  • #1,714
  • Jun 18, 2015 1:02pm Jun 18, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} NZDJPY Yeah, I really goofed on this trade, MoneyTalks58. It is still running. The setup was beautiful! Then suddenly it turned. And that is when I goofed. Instead of quickly cutting the red, I started adding. Anyway, the original premise was that this would go higher, for "JPY reasons" ahead of the still coming JPY high impact releases. I still hold to that premise. Meanwhile, price has bottomed and started back up. I am currently still red about 43 pips average on my entries. When I close the trade, I will post on it again. Money...
Thank you very much for your detailed answer. 20-30 pips sl is very tricky I guess. The entry point is more important in that case. For example: I stopped EU short trade in the last green candle with upper wick and it goes below after that. I am sorry for that.
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  • #1,715
  • Jun 18, 2015 1:04pm Jun 18, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting Trader555
Hi All, Fantastic thread - a special thanks to Professor TAH for setting this up. I'll try to post a bit more as I get to grips with PVSRA. I've just shorted GBPUSD. I will post the full details + charts in about an hour or so when I get some time. Thanks, Trader555
Trader555,

Welcome indeed! Consider this thread your new home for trading. And please accept my sincere thanks that I now express to you again for your support.

This thread is contributed to by many fine individuals, with sincere hearts. So you are going to feel "right at home."

tah
  • #1,716
  • Jun 18, 2015 1:23pm Jun 18, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting MoneyTalks58
{quote} Thank you very much for your detailed answer. 20-30 pips sl is very tricky I guess. The entry point is more important in that case. For example: I stopped EU short trade in the last green candle with upper wick and it goes below after that. I am sorry for that. {image}
Yes, and that was a stop hunt on shorts.

There is a saying, "Never trade until they run the stops." But, they might not run the stops. Or they might run stops more than once. We can never know. So, there is also the reverent standby strategy of letting price drop down thru the bottom of ranging, wait for price to retrace back up, and then enter short if volume is increased at the top of the retrace which would indicate more loading of shorts for the next move lower.

Entering a short in this manner allows your mental SL to now be about 20-30 pips inside the range, above the bottom that has been already broken low. And since this bottom has already been broken, and price has already retraced upward again to some high point in the vicinity (maybe even a bit higher than the range bottom, i.e., back inside the range, but not by much), your mental SL 20-30 pips higher up is now far less likely to be hit.

This manner of entry requires extreme discipline to overcome the "greedy trigger finger" tendency to hit the "Go!" button as soon as we see price break out of ranging.

Look at EU now. Price is retracing again back to the lower area of ranging. On either retrace a trader could enter a short trade. Personally, I want to see what the AS MMs do before I act further on this pair. They might take price back above the whole number. These two retraces are not showing much increased volume at their highs, some, but not much. BTW, volume should always be checked out on the M1 chart to see what might not be so visible on M15 regarding exactly how volume might increase, or not, whenever price is in an important area and you are trying to make a decision.

-tah
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  • #1,717
  • Edited 1:55pm Jun 18, 2015 1:36pm | Edited 1:55pm
Quoting leentjai
Opened Short GBP/AUD Opened and closed Short USD/JPY average +117.5 {image} {image}
good call leentjai...i was tracking this pair as well but missed my trade...i was also looking to go short around the same price area you entered...but i was sleeping...much needed

i was able to enter a long order looking for a retracement from the whole level...good for 30 pips

may continue to RWH level...

k
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"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #1,718
  • Jun 18, 2015 1:37pm Jun 18, 2015 1:37pm
wait
AUDUSD
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  • #1,719
  • Edited 3:31pm Jun 18, 2015 3:05pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Trader555, Welcome indeed! Consider this thread your new home for trading. And please accept my sincere thanks that I now express to you again for your support. This thread is contributed to by many fine individuals, with sincere hearts. So you are going to feel "right at home." tah
Quoting Trader555
Hi All, Fantastic thread - a special thanks to Professor TAH for setting this up. I'll try to post a bit more as I get to grips with PVSRA. I've just shorted GBPUSD. I will post the full details + charts in about an hour or so when I get some time. Thanks, Trader555
Thank you for the warm welcome Professor TAH. It is much appreciated. It is a great honour to be a part of this great community of traders. I shall do my best to contribute to the best of my abilities, as and when time permits.

With that said, on to my first trade. Short Trade GBPUSD:

Weekly Chart:
I see that price is near the top of a channel as indicated by the red line. Volume indicates potentially weekly exhaustion to come based on the prior week's high volume. The latter point is very speculative but it's a clue, nonetheless.
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4 Hour Chart:
I see some increase in volume at higher prices, which suggests a climatic situ potentially arising (see red line in volume pane). I also note an engulfing down bar on the chart, which suggests weakness. EDIT - I neglected to mention that I see a general decrease in volume since 10 June, as shown in the 4 hour chart, suggesting a lack of demand for higher prices.
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1 Hour Chart:
Note the climatic volume proceeded by higher prices. Could this be a play in order to wrong foot new shorts in order for MMs to gain liquidity?
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15m Chart:
I missed the London session classic short, which actioned on a flatish Dragon. I took a short position after an NY session classic as I liked the push through volume and priced seemed to weaken a little as it re-approached the NY classic entry level, as indicated in the chart. This part of the trade I may have blundered a little, however, I see some positive signs in the above three charts, which told me it was a good enough time to make the trade.
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EXITS:
In terms of TP and SL, I will assess volume and price action as time goes by.

Please let me know if I've made any mistakes.

Good trading to all.

Trader555
  • #1,720
  • Jun 18, 2015 4:17pm Jun 18, 2015 4:17pm
Quoting kaoscoded
{quote} good call leentjai...i was tracking this pair as well but missed my trade...i was also looking to go short around the same price area you entered...but i was sleeping...much needed i was able to enter a long order looking for a retracement from the whole level...good for 30 pips may continue to RWH level... k {image}
Thank you
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