Reflexivity in the USD

Sold Oil at 61.21 here on 1 contract. I said I would wait until US open for more liquidity but the upper part of the sell zone at 61.38 is too much to pass up for a potential low RR trade. I don't mind risking a 40 point stop loss ($61.61 or $400 in order to see CL trade down to 95 or $1210)

If I am wrong at least I can hope dollar will continue to trade lower as well on these two trades going into US open

EDIT: WOW that was a quick loss. I should of waited for US lol. Now I will have to really sit on my hands and catch this move.

I downloaded the document from somewhere, and I can't remember where.....

However Google throws up a number of hits, just take normal precautions.

Yes it pops up on the internet here and there just like PTJ's trader video but then gets quickly pulled. I made a point the last time I saw it to convert to PDF and save on my stick so I won't have to fight potential Trojans again.

Still back in the range after that overshoot several hours ago. I have a sell stop at 60.96 just in case RSI continues to run overbought and the ABCD does is really not valid. Should of considered limit orders at the 1618 fib at .75 but I really didnt think we could go that high overnight. Either way lets see what EIA release brings. Targets if filled are 59.41 down to 59 I close one contract at the first target and let the other one run.

Dollar trading back in that 618-50 fib rangek so not really excited about that. However, I will see if we can find resistance at 9548 which is yesterdays US session low. If it rejects than I don't mind holding here on the short side to 93115

Not much has changed in the last day. Still short CL which is nice profit but its making up for my current unrealized loss on Dollar. Dollar has broken the 618 95.465 but still is in a range here from Friday's jobs reports. I'm looking to see if it comes down a bit in London to take a smaller loss and hold CL a bit longer here to capture more profit.

Glad I had the Cl short on as these two trades right now pretty much cancel each other out with a few hundred in profit if I were to close right now.

Intro to futures thread should be up this weekend.

Closed out my CL shorts here as we are trading at the bottom of yesterday's US low at 60.35 for a profit of 60 points I will re short once we get a small pop here at 60.73-85 for a larger move back to 59.90-59.50

As for Dollar, I was thinking more and more after talking with a friend on Skype that the dollars a continued short at the moment. I say this because lets look at the some fundi's and events that took place this week which saw the dollar not only trade sideways but still have the lower hi's set from the NFP spike.

1. Frenchmen official mentioned Obama was concerned about a strong dollar
2. White House/Obama refuted these claims
3. BoJ's Kuroda said Yen is very weak and should not fall much further which after speaking with my friend he mentioned that the BOJ is a mouthpiece for the fed at the moment to devalue the dollar before a possible hike end of year through increased inflows into Yen and jawboning. This was done before when Boj and US were having disputes regarding Japans currency advantage when it came to auto sales back when Baker stated over the weekend he wouldn't mind a weak dollar (http://www.nytimes.com/1987/01/25/bu...omic-boon.html) then we all knew what happened next on USD/JPY
4. US data yesterday should of given dollar a boost to break technical levels but it's still in its range set all week.

My point is since the G7 there has been a shift in policy on dollar from the Fed and its not going to be the treasury or fed that does the talking but BOJ and possibly BOE that will talk down the dollar. I could be wrong and we break to the upside in Us trade for all I know, but I don't mind holding my short here based on the lack of follow through dollar has experienced this week. I suspect there are bigger shifts that will take place in commercial and speculative flows into JPY and EUR but it takes time for this to resonate on the charts.

German Chancellor Merkel: If EUR Is Too Strong, Spanish & Irish Reforms Are Made Harder

Out of dollar for the loss. Will regroup in US for new trade.

I might just play options today as this nonsense wires are getting tiresome going into the weekend.

FML i knew this dollar short is valid and I got out early only to take a loss. What a grind currency trading has been for me this week holding this position knowing full well that the BOJ theory on devaluing the dollar as I spoke about earlier is valid. Shit.

IN AT 95.12 Dollar has been the bain of my existence for the last two week but my entry last week was shit so I deserved the loss. Have various open options positions that I will let this move ride with a wider stop than usual at 95.75

It seems like the market is really underpricing a Greece default such as the EURO trades up initially before re assessing, Either way mydollar short is on the backs of TA looks heavy once more, and Fed should not hike this week. 93target

This should solidify dollar going to 93 by Friday. Look to sell small pops in dollar going into London and vice versa for EURO. I have mainly been playing options this week as the currency vol has been too high for my liking. Still have dollar on from my last post and will ride to 93.

I have also been working on the futures thread and about done. The content I believe will be a one stop shop for those looking to transition and find numerous amounts of resources.

If you guys remember that post I made about how to trade spikes. Today again was a perfect example how to make low R'R trades on spikes. I will post summary later but added to my dollar short at 94.875

this will be included in the futures thread on setups. hold to 93 on dollar boys and girls EUR.USD is a buy on dips. Look at my previous charts on dollar futures, there is very little support until 94 then 93 on fibs TBH.

remember it? I posted it on my shouts section (closest thing I could find to bookmarking it on here).

Nice. Today dollar bounced off 618 to short I will post soon. Dollar should find support at 94.16 so hold your eur/usd longs until then then consider taking money off the table

Here is the dollar chart that I check every morning. Remember I spoke about that key fib that has held the dollar up at 618% which Obv is broken. No main support until 94.15-94. Trade your plan and get out of your EUR/USD longs when you want, but personally I wont look to close dollar shorts or start unloading full positioning until the price above down to 93.

Trade setup and entry to come after close so pppl can continue to learn and trade spikes correctly.

SO HERE IS HOW TO TRADE NEWS SPIKE LIKE I DID WITH NFP AND TODAY AFTER NFP. If you have not read the strategy you wont understand the below so read this first
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post8307639

Here is the trade in questions post FOMC and how you can consistently trade news spikes. Still short dollar. This can be applied to spot like EUR/USD
Entry included. Added to short at 11:28 (28 minutes after FED) so don't trade the spike learn to trade after the spike and you will do well and get solid fills.

MY risk on this short was only 6 points ($60) and you see where dollar is trading now.

Fomc sry ADD again

Rather than having to apologize you could just use the edit function to change NFP to FOMC and add note at bottom to that effect if you want.

haha man I need to get off that red bull

Out of dollar shorts here. Now flat. I am not going to nickel and dime a target. Dollar should trade up to 94.80 before it finds more sellers. Flat and going to bed. Night all/