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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,601
  • Jun 17, 2015 9:54am Jun 17, 2015 9:54am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Well I just go with 'most times'. I do have a pattern on the H4 tf that works most times that says 1150 is going to go as long as 1385 holds, and one on the H1 tf that says 1204 is going to go as long as 1330 holds (though the H1 again isn't as clean as the H4. Also 'most times clear higher tf trendlines ( line the one on the weekly) do get a third touch. I can't argue with your logic though. Those locations where clear S broke and then the bears shorted the retest from the downside and got screwed when that didn't work out are great locations...
"until the fat lady sings"
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,602
  • Jun 17, 2015 9:59am Jun 17, 2015 9:59am
Quoting hathor
{quote} The last M15 (bear) candle has today's highest amount of execute...maybe the low? Time will tell... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVb720f6cTc We are here again: {quote}
Current M15 (bull!) candle is second top on M15
-> therefore top amount of execute in this M30, H1
-> M15/30 buy signal
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,603
  • Jun 17, 2015 10:07am Jun 17, 2015 10:07am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Current M15 (bull!) candle is second top on M15 -> therefore top amount of execute in this M30, H1 -> M15/30 buy signal
it just bounced right off the lower t/l in this post
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post8331028
  • #135,604
  • Jun 17, 2015 10:10am Jun 17, 2015 10:10am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Current M15 (bull!) candle is second top on M15 -> therefore top amount of execute in this M30, H1 -> M15/30 buy signal
I am not following what you mean by this. What do you mean by top amount of execute?
  • #135,605
  • Jun 17, 2015 10:36am Jun 17, 2015 10:36am
Opening range completed with most main markets flirting to break higher/lower permitting a "dovish" FOMC. For the rest of the day its pretty much it until the key FED in the evening so nothing to see till then.

A quick overview of what is in play across the board from a trading point of view:

Bonds have been absolutely crazy and as usual before macro moves there are the earliest alerts that major mid and long term legs are cooking. From today FED meeting we are officially entering in RMT (Rates Mode trading). Except from unforeseen externalities the next couple of quarters Rates will be in full and only control.

In the main markets. We have major mid term levels in play in almost every single one that could(and more than probably) be triggered starting today until the Q/M combo and developing the main impulsive moves during the Summer.

We have "setting YEARLY highs" in play in US equities, Oil, Gold, Euro, CHF and AUD.

 

  1. US equites (ES as reference) -----> Failure to take 2120.xx with a hawkish FED will set the current high as the High of the year (and probably the next one too[tbc]) while a dovish FED with next year hikes but with positive outlooks will mark a quick exhaustion leg to test the current highs (but not much beyond 2150.xx) before starting the mid term retrace for the hikes later in the summer.

  1. Oil ----> Although not directly pegged to the FOMC it would suffer from US equities retreating and especially will have a big impact via the dollar. A break $62.7x (sep to next year hikes with /positive forecast) open last target to the dead cat bounce to $72.xx/$73.xx in a sharp move for setting the high of the year (and more importantly a long term high !!!!) by the summer. Otherwise with a hike or a hawkish FED the current high will be set as the high of the year.

  1. GOLD ----> Major instrument to track during hikes trading. Same as the all the other ones... A dovish next year hikes /with proper forecast open a test 1220x to set the current high as the high of the year in the summer. Any other hawkish scenario unlocks below $1000.xx once the current floor is taking (and obviously setting the current high as the high of the year.

  1. Euro ---> Map is clean and clear. Dovish next year hikes/proper forecast unlocks a fast & sharp but short-lived test of highs that can extend as high as the 1.18xx handle if Greece noise its also cleared this month to set the highs of the year before the summer ends. Any other outcome from the FED will set the current high as the high of the year and unlocks [finally] the leg to parity.

  1. On the minors CHF and AUD, both are set to mark the high of the year. A dovish next year hikes/proper forecast opens a quick test to the 0.79xx (AUD) to mark the high of the year before September, and 0.96xx in (CHF) to test the massive knee jerk reaction on the SNB taking the floor early this year. Any other hawkish outcome, will mark in both the current high as the high of the year and unlocks 0.73xx and 0.85xx respectively.


​For the rest of the markets:

 

  1. King Dollar in full control for the rest of the year. As long as 97.xx holds moves will be choppy and noisy. Once we take that one via hikes, we will get all the smooth clean mid term momentum moves across the FX world.

  1. European Equities (Dax as reference) ----> Yearly highs are pretty much already set across european equities even before the FED. Greek jitters will weight heavier all summer (if not before). A dovish FED will trigger a very yummy rally to test 111600 with a max ext to 12200x to confirm the current high as the high of year. On the other side a hawkish FED will only accelerate the move (with Greece feeling the move) to a first test of PRE ECB QE levels below +/- 10400.

​Lots of actions and opps across the board. Getting aligned with the next mid term moves will be the difference between who make it or not this trading year so GL all....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,606
  • Jun 17, 2015 10:45am Jun 17, 2015 10:45am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I am not following what you mean by this. What do you mean by top amount of execute?
Well, maybe I'm wrong (good start, ehh? ), but I'm tracking the balance of buying and selling.
Everything is aiming to equilibrium in the Universe, just like the market.
But...usually there is imbalance between buying and selling.
I can translate this imbalance into numbers and these numbers shows the "strength" of the candles.
The stronger is a candle, the more amount of trades has been executed under that time.
It is an experimental way of analysis of the market, but I believe it has something to do with the "hidden buy/sell".


PS: actually the amount is not right -> rather amount of lots
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,607
  • Jun 17, 2015 10:59am Jun 17, 2015 10:59am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Current M15 (bull!) candle is second top on M15 -> therefore top amount of execute in this M30, H1 -> M15/30 buy signal
Signal has been fulfilled, so no guarantee of more up
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,608
  • Jun 17, 2015 11:29am Jun 17, 2015 11:29am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Well, maybe I'm wrong (good start, ehh? ), but I'm tracking the balance of buying and selling. Everything is aiming to equilibrium in the Universe, just like the market. But...usually there is imbalance between buying and selling. I can translate this imbalance into numbers and these numbers shows the "strength" of the candles. The stronger is a candle, the more amount of trades has been executed under that time. It is an experimental way of analysis of the market, but I believe it has something to do with the "hidden buy/sell". ...
You mean something like on balance volume indie, or you mean something like what Infinitis does when he compares the volume (estimated from tick data) on a swing up to that of a swing down ( like here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post8266987)
  • #135,609
  • Jun 17, 2015 11:32am Jun 17, 2015 11:32am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Was thinking about this... Now ('in the future') you know that was a buying zone, and there is a stop-cluster under it, but when the price was 'licking' under 1.12 (in that specific moment) it was rather bearish move, don't forget how that move was executed... - it was Friday - it was happening due to a disappointing european data [PPI] - the move was cracking the previous day's low (which was a nice spiky low - full of longs) Just like on 5th of June: - it was Friday - it was happening due to a very positive american data [Non-Farm Employment...
Ho Ho, you may be right. They just trapped all the ones who shorted the retest of 1237 from the bottom. They been doing this trick all week. Break a level, grab the stops of the buyers below the level and then screw the people who short the retest from the downside of the level by not following through with a lower low.
  • #135,610
  • Jun 17, 2015 11:41am Jun 17, 2015 11:41am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Ho Ho, you may be right. They just trapped all the ones who shorted the retest of 1237 from the bottom. They been doing this trick all week. Break a level, grab the stops of the buyers below the level and then screw the people who short the retest from the downside of the level by not following through with a lower low.
Could it all really be that orchestrated?
  • #135,611
  • Jun 17, 2015 11:50am Jun 17, 2015 11:50am
Quoting sisse
Opening range completed with most main markets flirting to break higher/lower permitting a "dovish" FOMC. For the rest of the day its pretty much it until the key FED in the evening so nothing to see till then. A quick overview of what is in play across the board from a trading point of view: Bonds have been absolutely crazy and as usual before macro moves there are the earliest alerts that major mid and long term legs are cooking. From today FED meeting we are officially entering in RMT (Rates Mode trading). Except from unforeseen externalities...
Hi sisse, welcome back and thanks for analysis.
  • #135,612
  • Jun 17, 2015 11:52am Jun 17, 2015 11:52am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Could it all really be that orchestrated?
Nah. No way. Maybe I better start looking for my tinfoilhat.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...y-doj-immunity

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...e-fund-citadel
  • #135,613
  • Jun 17, 2015 12:07pm Jun 17, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} 1.153 will be on the cards but only once/if the bulls can resolve 1.22 1.122. A particularly dovish FED pushing hikes toward the end of the year will open that path. I'm slightly more constructive on the $ though. Recent prints have been strong on employment, inflation and demand and I think there will be a credibility issue if the FED keeps holding off and kicking the rates can. Besides, everyone's on the front foot for the hikes except for super pigs so why risk roiling the markets by hiking later. A slight tightening on monetary policy...
They're decoupling now with the FED looming. Treasury yields coming up hard on support but the bund not so much.

Anyway, 1.122 in play but it will be resolved at the extremes on serious volatility. Bear's will capitulate with a confirmed break of 1.1382 with dovish support from the FED. It will probably put paid to those monthly highs 1466, 1533 too.

Anything slightly hawkish will see 1.098 in no time and then more below that and then some more.

Oil, gold are coiled up and I can't say nothing about those. So yields coming up strongly and an increasingly weak stock market prior to the big meet.
  • #135,614
  • Jun 17, 2015 12:12pm Jun 17, 2015 12:12pm
Quoting sisse
Euro ---> Map is clean and clear. Dovish next year hikes/proper forecast unlocks a fast & sharp but short-lived test of highs that can extend as high as the 1.18xx handle if Greece noise its also cleared this month to set the highs of the year before the summer ends. Any other outcome from the FED will set the current high as the high of the year and unlocks [finally] the leg to parity. European Equities (Dax as reference) ----> Yearly highs are pretty much already set across european equities even before the FED. Greek jitters will weight heavier...
Thank you Sisse for the overview!

EUR's yearly high is set in my opinion. But the test of highs is in play until the mid/end of the summer (August). I am looking at 1.153x first, and then 1.163x, 1.18x is out of reach in my system...

Agree on the DAX's yearly high, but I believe the positive perspect of European equity is not yet exhausted.

Btw, how do you guys trade FOMC? I have only experienced two FOMC so far. It is pretty chaotic...some good technics would be handy.

Thank you!
  • #135,615
  • Jun 17, 2015 12:25pm Jun 17, 2015 12:25pm
...and here we go for the FOMC. As usual for the euro.

------- ------- ------- -------

On the fundamental side .

Clear map. 2 issues to track: September hikes to gain track with clear signs that the economy is "al dente" for a double gradual hike until Q1 2016.

Any other outcome will be unexpected and will send major shockwaves (e.g a surprise hike or a super dovish Yellen).

In a nutshell for a quick reference everybody is " tracking the dots" today for the initial knee jerk reaction.

------- ------- ------- -------

In the technical side

See previous post for. Details but basically, yearly/Q high in play with a major mid term leg on the making.

1.127x mid term flip zone in play with the Q/M roll.

---> To the top side with dovish FED. (Short term outlook from neutral to buy)

A break of 1.14xx handle unlocks 1.178x with max extension 1.184x and strong intermediate stops at 1.154x.

---->Neutral in a "nothing new" FED. (Short term outlook will stay neutral)

Nothing to see. Same choppy range(1.104x/1.135x), same levels, same plays....same all

---->To the floor with a hawkish FED. (Or unexpected hike)

The high of this year will be set and 1.104x key level to track. A break bellow opens the leg to parity with strong intermediate stops at 1.073x and the yearly lows.

------- ------- ------- -------

For the actual flows. for the next few sessions.

In order of potential impact and less odds of happening...

A unexpected hike or a super hawkish fed----> very very low chances.

a WTF direct move today of at least 500 ticks to 1.073x and the yearly lows for the end of this Q.....direct and fast (crazy spreads,etc) move so "catch me if you can" rules apply (just sell no retraces). Sell 1.127x.

A dovish FED/Yellen opening the door of hikes only from next year. ----> 50/50 chances

For those, holding the swing from below nothing to di but wait to see if pans out. 1.135x unlock first main 1.155x swing target in the next few sessions.

If not in.1.135x is the break to take / reload.

A inline FED with September highs and double dots for early next year ----> 50/50

Range play intact. 1.135x to 1.104x so if already in, kill longs in intradday failure (fade 1.127x and ride the mini wave to the floor until Greece noise settle down.

Gl all...
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,616
  • Jun 17, 2015 12:34pm Jun 17, 2015 12:34pm
Thanks Sisse, top quality overview. Let's wait for the fireworks.
  • #135,617
  • Jun 17, 2015 1:12pm Jun 17, 2015 1:12pm
Slighly dovish. Waiting for yellen. Watch out for 1.134x for any move...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,618
  • Jun 17, 2015 1:12pm Jun 17, 2015 1:12pm
Hmmm this guy on Bloomberg is saying that the data interpretation is rather dovish... do you agree? I mean two rate hikes in 2015 doesn't sound all that dovish to me. Can't imagine we're looking at 1.14X and higher with this outcome...
  • #135,619
  • Jun 17, 2015 1:31pm Jun 17, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting ExForX
Hmmm this guy on Bloomberg is saying that the data interpretation is rather dovish... do you agree? I mean two rate hikes in 2015 doesn't sound all that dovish to me. Can't imagine we're looking at 1.14X and higher with this outcome...
Well read the statmentt. The message is clear...."although employment and inflation targets are close...... We consider to stay put.... In simple words,inflation need to tick up a notch and there you have the confirmation... Until then there is."no hurry".....sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,620
  • Jun 17, 2015 1:39pm Jun 17, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well read the statmentt. The message is clear...."although employment and inflation targets are close...... We consider to stay put.... In simple words,inflation need to tick up a notch and there you have the confirmation... Until then there is."no hurry".....sisse
Hi sisse, glad you're back
Does this put it under
Quote
If market read doubts
or
Quote
If markets read nothing new
? according to your analysis?
To me it sounds like DOUBTS

Thanks
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