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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #1,501
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:33pm Jun 16, 2015 1:33pm
Hi guys.

I want to share with you a little PVA trick I noticed. Check out Eurusd H1 chart I posted. Look at the circled areas. Those areas are PVA events, precisely, those are 2 bar PVA events. Whenever you see a price making new high or new low on a PVA event followed immediately by a second PVA event, price reversal is imminent. So if you see a price making new high on a green or a blue candle and is immediately followed by a red or purple candle, price is going to reverse down. If you see a price making new low on a red or purple candle and is immediately followed by a green or blue candle, price is going to reverse up. It is uncanny sometimes how this works. So, when you see such event take place, drill down to a lower time frame for your entry. Interestingly, such events tend to take place above/below 1/1 and 1/2 levels. That is not a coincidence. Of course, traders own discretion is still required, you have to be able to determine new high or low. The last circle on my Eurusd chart shows a PVA event which saved me today from a losing position. Prior to that PVA event, I was long! Needless to say, once it appeared, I bailed out. Check it out guys and may it bring you many, many pips.

Marijan
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  • #1,502
  • Edited 1:53pm Jun 16, 2015 1:40pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting marijan993
Hi guys. I want to share with you a little PVA trick I noticed. Check out Eurusd H1 chart I posted. Look at the circled areas. Those areas are PVA events, precisely, those are 2 bar PVA events. Whenever you see a price making new high or new low on a PVA event followed immediately by a second PVA event, price reversal is imminent. So if you see a price making new high on a green or a blue candle and is immediately followed by a red or purple candle, price is going to reverse down. If you see a price making new low on a red or purple candle and is...
Marijan,

this is not always the case. It is a coincidence probably before FOMC...
Or should I say- thieving MMs manipulating and getting both sides liquidity for the event tomorow, when they will have the excuse to move the price just how they plan it...
Stop hunts in both directions.
I see it as:
1.) Stealing the money from traders by sucking them in the wrong direction trade, many times
2.) Traders finnaly give up scared of another sucker or SL hunt and decide to trade after the FOMC.
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PVSRA
  • #1,503
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:42pm Jun 16, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting marijan993
Hi guys. I want to share with you a little PVA trick I noticed. Check out Eurusd H1 chart I posted. Look at the circled areas. Those areas are PVA events, precisely, those are 2 bar PVA events. Whenever you see a price making new high or new low on a PVA event followed immediately by a second PVA event, price reversal is imminent. So if you see a price making new high on a green or a blue candle and is immediately followed by a red or purple candle, price is going to reverse down. If you see a price making new low on a red or purple candle and is...
Thanks Marijan, good eyes
  • #1,504
  • Edited 3:04pm Jun 16, 2015 2:09pm | Edited 3:04pm
Quoting marijan993
Hi guys. I want to share with you a little PVA trick I noticed. Check out Eurusd H1 chart I posted. Look at the circled areas. Those areas are PVA events, precisely, those are 2 bar PVA events. Whenever you see a price making new high or new low on a PVA event followed immediately by a second PVA event, price reversal is imminent. So if you see a price making new high on a green or a blue candle and is immediately followed by a red or purple candle, price is going to reverse down. If you see a price making new low on a red or purple candle and is...
Dear marijan993;
I dont think so it will be able to always work. As I understand it, the notable PVA with a nice activity such as Blue-Red vice versa (and it called as "The Resetting Candle" by Gupito) at the certain highs or lows can not be used as a standard basis to guess that the price will be reverse. Not. But when it is used as a sign of weakness or sign of strenght, i do agree.
So, how do we take advantage of these signs? We need more evidance by the result of that efforts. How the reaction of the price after the notable PVA occured? we can find the evidance at the same TF or breakdown to the lower TF. And of course we need some consideration too to strengthen our hypothesis before jump to the market.
For example: the blue cyrcle on my ss pic (EU - H1 TF). The notable PVA accured at the highs (green-red combination as a resetting candle), if we positioned our self at the time it was happening, the notable PVA occured at the highs level area; isnt it?. But why the price not reversed to fall?
So, we need more evidance to conclude more than just by looking the notable PVA. We need to read how the reaction as a results of the efforts, and the other consideration to strengthen our hypothesis before make an execution to jump; such as a "stop hunt" at the lower TF or the TF that we use for trade; 123 (PVSRA) wave; consolidation area; increasing/ decreasing activities by the notable tick volume; etc.
And sometimes, after we made a proper reading with PVSRA, we will face the same problem---> "the timing" to jump. But I believe, with the seriousness of our observation and continuously of discussion we will find the way out, how to decide the most precise time to jump.
- MJ
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #1,505
  • Edited 2:35pm Jun 16, 2015 2:22pm | Edited 2:35pm
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} Dear marijan993; I dont think so it will be able to always work. As I understand it, the notable PVA with a nice activity such as Blue-Red vice versa (and it called as "The Resetting Candle" by Gupito) at the certain highs or lows can not be used as a standard basis to guess that the price will be reverse. Not. But when it is used as a sign of weakness or sign of strenght, i do agree. So, how do we take advantage of these signs? We need more evidance by the result of that efforts. How the reaction of the price after the notable PVA occured?...
Sorry Mauro but the example you posted is not gulty because the paar has reversed befor, is in a up swing it is not how marijan posted in the top or bottom, i value your great contribution to this tread,TY and regards.
  • #1,506
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:25pm Jun 16, 2015 2:25pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Marijan, this is not always the case. It is a coincidence probably before FOMC... Or should I say- thieving MMs manipulating and getting both sides liquidity for the event tomorow, when they will have the excuse to move the price just how they plan it... Stop hunts in both directions. I see it as: 1.) Stealing the money from traders by sucking them in the wrong direction trade, many times 2.) Traders finnaly give up scared of another sucker or SL hunt and decide to trade after the FOMC. {image} {image}
What Marijan pointed out may not work always, but what does? If there is something that always works there wouldn't be a market
  • #1,507
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:52pm Jun 16, 2015 2:52pm
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD Short Trade Open: Per the previous posts on this one, now that the MMs have the price back above the whole Level they are likely filling SM short orders. So, I have entered short here. My tentative TP is the 07550 area. {image}
AUDUSD Short Trade Closed:

Manually closed for loss of 3.1 pips average, 15.5 pips total loss.

This has been a monumental waste of time. And I have lost all confidence in the initial reason for the trade. Time can do that, you know. Tomorrow could be a day of some big moves, finally,.....maybe. We cannot know how the MMs have planned things out. New clues are few and far between and often conflicted. To stay in this trade seems more like gambling than trading now, so I decided to close it.
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  • #1,508
  • Edited 3:10pm Jun 16, 2015 2:53pm | Edited 3:10pm
Quoting mel3
{quote} Sorry Mauro but the example you posted is not gulty because the paar has reversed befor, is in a up swing it is not how marijan posted in the top or bottom, i value your great contribution to this tread,TY and regards.
Quoting shiva
{quote} What Marijan pointed out may not work always, but what does? If there is something that always works there wouldn't be a market
Dear mel3 & shiva;
I may have misunderstood the text and context that has been described by Marijan993. And if it so, I'm sorry for that especially to Marijan993.
The interesting thing of the marijan993 opinion then I have commented in the discussion is "So if you see a price making new high on a green or a blue candle and is immediately followed by a red or purple candle, price is going to reverse down. If you see a price making new low on a red or purple candle and is immediately followed by a green or blue candle, price is going to reverse up."
Because in reality, the new highs or new lows of the certain swing of the price are relative, it depends on which side we view it.
But, i think its good theme to discussed. And I am grateful to marijan for starting the discussion of this case.
And, I think, the notable PVA at the certain new lows or highs, sometimes will followed by the reverse movement of the prices, but we must remain cautious.
And I agree with shiva too, cz this is the market which controlled by MMs.
I have another examp, "notable PVA at the new highs"
Cheers..
-MJ
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #1,509
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:40pm Jun 16, 2015 3:40pm
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} {quote} Dear mel3 & shiva; I may have misunderstood the text and context that has been described by Marijan993. And if it so, I'm sorry for that especially to Marijan993. The interesting thing of the marijan993 opinion then I have commented in the discussion is "So if you see a price making new high on a green or a blue candle and is immediately followed by a red or purple candle, price is going to reverse down. If you see a price making new low on a red or purple candle and is immediately followed by a green or blue candle, price is going...
MJ,

you are always so extremly nice and patient,
all of us can learn from you.


It is a good theme to be discussed.

Tah, please don't be shy on this... few words would be nice..
PVSRA
  • #1,510
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:41pm Jun 16, 2015 3:41pm
Provoking Thoughts.....


Whenever you see a price making new high or new low on a PVA event followed immediately by a second PVA event, price reversal is imminent. - marijan993

It might not always be the case, but it seems to be the case so often that it might be "generally" true. The downside is that some reversals are puny, moving PA into a range where the opposite side of the range is not far enough away from a trade entry point that is based on this concept. Such might be more common if they occur during the AS. A lot depends on the magnitude of the opposing PVA events leading to a reversal, and where these two opposing PVA events exist in the bigger picture. And there will always be the potential for an exception that does not follow this premise.


MMs manipulating and getting both sides liquidity for the event tomorrow, when they will have the excuse to move the price just how they plan it. - Fisher755

Always there is SM and DM, and MMs to do the work of matching orders.....some high, some low.....everyone thinking they are SM....at a time when no one is really SM! If they were, they'd stay the hell away until the firing is over and the dust has settled.


What marijan993 pointed out may not work always, but what does? If there is something that always works there wouldn't be a market. - shiva

It is the absolute truth that there is not one thing about the market that is consistent,....that works 100% of the time. This is the randomness of the market. The consistency of the market is that it is operated by the crooks so as to assure a lack of consistency, for that is the environment that makes their thieving the most lucrative.


So, how do we take advantage of these signs? We need more evidence by the result of that efforts. - Mauro-J

The manufacturers of jigsaw puzzles do not stamp all the different pictures out using the same stamping press! Their goal is to present new challenges, not redressed old ones. What we must do on the one hand is accept there is a time to act on clues because they are more consistent than not and because PA is moving in agreement with them. And on the other hand we must accept there is a time not to act because the clues are too sparse, or too conflicting and that PA is so fickle it could be courting either camp,.....or BOTH!

From Post 1:
we cannot know how the MMs (Market Makers) will move price next, period.
We must take to ongoing learning and application of PVSRA.
we must Cautiously Ride the Coattails of the Crooks Operating this Market!

In conclusion, there is a time to trade and a time to stand back and let others do their trading until one camp or the other establishes supremacy, so that we can ride their coattails instead of jumping into the frying pan or the fire!

tah
  • #1,511
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:50pm Jun 16, 2015 3:50pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} MJ, you are always so extremly nice and patient, all of us can learn from you. It is a good theme to be discussed. Tah, please don't be shy on this... few words would be nice..
Quoting traderathome
Provoking Thoughts..... Whenever you see a price making new high or new low on a PVA event followed immediately by a second PVA event, price reversal is imminent. - marijan993 It might not always be the case, but it seems to be the case so often that it might be "generally" true. The downside is that some reversals are puny, moving PA into a range where the opposite side of the range is not far enough away from a trade entry point that is based on this concept. Such might be more common if they occur during the AS. A lot depends on the magnitude...
... and I tought you are shy...

I have to be satisfied with the amount of words too..
PVSRA
  • #1,512
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:52pm Jun 16, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting marijan993
Hi guys. I want to share with you a little PVA trick I noticed. Check out Eurusd H1 chart I posted. Look at the circled areas. Those areas are PVA events, precisely, those are 2 bar PVA events. Whenever you see a price making new high or new low on a PVA event followed immediately by a second PVA event, price reversal is imminent. So if you see a price making new high on a green or a blue candle and is immediately followed by a red or purple candle, price is going to reverse down. If you see a price making new low on a red or purple candle and is...
Guys,

I didn't say it would work all the time. If it would, all one would have to do is to look for the 2 bar setup at new highs/lows and be on his/hers way to billions! But, to be fair, it does work more often than not (I backtested it only on H1). That is, if we are going to nitpick. We aren't. I said also traders discretion is required in order to gauge the situation and to drill down in time frames to pick an entry. I didn't know Gupito called this resetting candle, it was before my time. There is also no need to apologize, a healthy discussion is always welcome. I wanted to point out a moment in time when a sign of strength or weakness appears on lows or highs which helps in determining weather the MMs are bulls or bears. I described it my previous post as precisely as I could and as detailed as possible in order to explain it as best as possible, but it seems I might have done just the opposite. I apologize for the inconvenience I caused.

Marijan
  • #1,513
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:53pm Jun 16, 2015 3:53pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} MJ, you are always so extremly nice and patient, all of us can learn from you. It is a good theme to be discussed. Tah, please don't be shy on this... few words would be nice..
Well, you only asked for a "few words". I could have done more...... []
  • #1,514
  • Edited 4:15pm Jun 16, 2015 3:57pm | Edited 4:15pm
Quoting marijan993
{quote} Guys, I didn't say it would work all the time. If it would, all one would have to do is to look for the 2 bar setup at new highs/lows and be on his/hers way to billions! But, to be fair, it does work more often than not (I backtested it only on H1). That is, if we are going to nitpick. We aren't. I said also traders discretion is required in order to gauge the situation and to drill down in time frames to pick an entry. I didn't know Gupito called this resetting candle, it was before my time. There is also no need to apologize, a healthy...
Dear Marijan,

you caused a great, great thing-

traders joined in discussion!

What better could we wish for- learning and growing together is our main goal here, isn't it?

This is a quality thread and we are a high quality family here and everything is just how it should be- perfect!!!

I love this thread and it's sharing participants! - we can even read each others minds...
PVSRA
  • #1,515
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:00pm Jun 16, 2015 4:00pm
Quoting marijan993
{quote} Guys, I didn't say it would work all the time. If it would, all one would have to do is to look for the 2 bar setup at new highs/lows and be on his/hers way to billions! But, to be fair, it does work more often than not (I backtested it only on H1). That is, if we are going to nitpick. We aren't. I said also traders discretion is required in order to gauge the situation and to drill down in time frames to pick an entry. I didn't know Gupito called this resetting candle, it was before my time. There is also no need to apologize, a healthy discussion is always welcome. I wanted to point out a moment in time when a sign of strength or weakness appears on lows or highs which helps in determining weather the MMs are bulls or bears. I described it my previous post as precisely as I could and as detailed as possible in order to explain it as best as possible, but it seems I might have done just the opposite. I apologize for the inconvenience I caused. Marijan
Dear marijan993,

It is always inconvenient when someone forces others to actually THINK!

Good for you!
-tah

P.S: I love this thread and it's sharing participants!
  • #1,516
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:06pm Jun 16, 2015 4:06pm
Very interesting thread. The general feeling for the Eur/USD on this thread for the moment seems to be to wait until tomorrow's event gives us a sign of market direction. That said, how do you trade in this climate?

I'm I'm short at 1241 Eur/Usd and am trying to figure out if I should hold it of close for somthing better!
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #1,517
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:13pm Jun 16, 2015 4:13pm
Quoting marijan993
{quote} Guys, I didn't say it would work all the time. If it would, all one would have to do is to look for the 2 bar setup at new highs/lows and be on his/hers way to billions! But, to be fair, it does work more often than not (I backtested it only on H1). That is, if we are going to nitpick. We aren't. I said also traders discretion is required in order to gauge the situation and to drill down in time frames to pick an entry. I didn't know Gupito called this resetting candle, it was before my time. There is also no need to apologize, a healthy...
Dear marijan993;
Honestly, you has initiated a good theme to discussed. we both studied and taught here, to build up each other. And this is one of the purposes of our thread; discussing, learning, teaching, in order to get more understanding how the market really works with PVSRA and how to apply it in our trade.
-MJ
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #1,518
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:14pm Jun 16, 2015 4:14pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
Very interesting thread. The general feeling for the Eur/USD on this thread for the moment seems to be to wait until tomorrow's event gives us a sign of market direction. That said, how do you trade in this climate? I'm I'm short at 1241 Eur/Usd and am trying to figure out if I should hold it of close for somthing better!
Pip_Warrior,

Which is another way of saying you are trying to determine how the MMs will move price next.

That is something we here have decided cannot be done,.....EVER!

What can you do? You can review your reasons for taking the trade. Review them in the light of all the PA available. If you cannot have overwhelming confidence in your reasons, you can close the trade and wait until such time as the market gives you better reasons to take a trade.

And just setting a SL, tight or otherwise, is probably just kissing money "Goodbye!" because there is good probability the MMs will tomorrow go on a Whip Whackin' free for all! The sequence of price directions they implement, and the distance they take price will be based in part on what exists on the price queue tomorrow. No one knows now what that will be. And only the SUPER HFT MMs will know it when they decide what to do about it.

tah
  • #1,519
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:20pm Jun 16, 2015 4:20pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Dear Marijan, you caused a great, great thing- traders joined in discussion! What better could we wish for- learning and growing together is our main goal here, isn't it? This is a quality thread and we are a high quality family here and everything is just how it should be- perfect!!! I love this thread and it's sharing participants! - we can even read each others minds... I'm sure I Will absolutly love Tah's answer to Pip Warior, so please Tah- be our guest here..
TAH is our judges, when he came all students looked down to listen no exception me, but it did not apply for one students - he is fisher755. hahahahahha
peace...
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #1,520
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:25pm Jun 16, 2015 4:25pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Well, you only asked for a "few words". I could have done more...... []
I was about to point out "few words" but... What your said was valuable, thanks TAH
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