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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,581
  • Jun 16, 2015 10:44am Jun 16, 2015 10:44am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Greece has not been in play since a long time except for noise intraday as you pointed out. Its not news and since a long long long time ago. Everybody knows what is going on. Only a panic leg will be the only one interesting to track but what is really important is everything else across the board that is in key mid term launching platforms for the FED. Like usual It's not what IS in the headlines but what is NOT. Greece is "irrelevant", the massive mover and shaker for the rest of the year is the FED and the FOMC projections tomorrow.......
[/b]

Sisse, your stand is a bit unclear for me. Do you think FED will raise rates next year?? I am still leaning towards Sep.

Base on the PA, I can see the scenario that we are going to climb higher slowly until end of June. July can see a top out picture. August is calm and quiet, and fresh selling starts at the beginning of Sep.
  • #135,582
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:11am Jun 16, 2015 11:11am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote}[/b] Sisse, your stand is a bit unclear for me. Do you think FED will raise rates next year?? I am still leaning towards Sep. Base on the PA, I can see the scenario that we are going to climb higher slowly until end of June. July can see a top out picture. August is calm and quiet, and fresh selling starts at the beginning of Sep.
I am 50/50 right now for a hike in September/hike next year which is clearly reflected both in US equities and bonds on the current levels.

On the macro numbers front, NFP went back to the positive trend and most macro numbers show that the Q1 was a one off. However, latest inflation is not playing ball yet and short term risk in Europe (via Greece) could have an influence in the FED decision until the end of the summer.

This FED meeting is super important. Its the first time in nearly 6 years that we have a (marginal) chance of a hike in a FED meeting. Its very very marginal but a chance at the end so first is always to watchout FED surprisingly outsmart the markets and send massive shockwaves across the board on a unexpected tiny hike pointing for slow gradual hikes policy for the mid term (it wouldnt be the first time and neither is a bad option from CB point of view to outsmart expectations on the first hike)

All eyes on the economic forecast especially in inflation as those will be the ones to read.

 

  1. If market read September hikes (which is the expectations before tomorrow) will see a relatively clean swing leg down once we take the current short term floor (below the 1.10xx handle).
  2. If market read doubts will see a fast and sharp move up cleaning the top (i am talking in the euro) with hands realigning portfolios and rising (and or killing shorts) and then extended wide chop zone until the end of the summer.
  3. If markets read nothing new, stay constrained in the current neutral noisy range with Greece on the background in the middle until further data ....

For the actual details on the FOMC and the flows will surely talk a lot more in detail until the FED.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,583
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:15am Jun 16, 2015 11:15am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I am 50/50 right now. sisse
Glad your back, was wondering what your thoughts would be when I saw this posted.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=545123
  • #135,584
  • Jun 16, 2015 12:09pm Jun 16, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} If market read September hikes (which is the expectations before tomorrow) will see a relatively clean swing leg down once we take the current short term floor (below the 1.10xx handle). If market read doubts will see a fast and sharp move up cleaning the top (i am talking in the euro) with hands realigning portfolios and rising (and or killing shorts) and then extended wide chop zone until the end of the summer. If markets read nothing new, stay constrained in the current neutral noisy range with Greece on the background in the middle...
Given the recent PA, I see that the pair wants to test 1.153x/1.163x levels (these are some major monthly supports and resistance lost and gained), before we seriously resume the downward trend.
Therefore I disagree slightly on whether we will see a clean swing leg down if the market reads Sep hikes.
Why not: so it is Sep, that means a few more days of chop and go a little higher, and then leg down when everybody is back from holidays?
  • #135,585
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:24pm Jun 16, 2015 2:24pm
Thank you for posting Sir.
Best regards,
k
  • #135,586
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:17pm Jun 16, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting sisse
If market read September hikes (which is the expectations before tomorrow) will see a relatively clean swing leg down once we take the current short term floor (below the 1.10xx handle). If market read doubts will see a fast and sharp move up cleaning the top (i am talking in the euro) with hands realigning portfolios and rising (and or killing shorts) and then extended wide chop zone until the end of the summer. If markets read nothing new, stay constrained in the current neutral noisy range with Greece on the background in the middle until further...
hey, glad to see sisse back with us, hope you have been well. I m/l concur with the above re: Greece & the FOMC. I have been going into cash before we see what may be what beyond these quasi binary events, in the case of Greece, kind of like the guy with the sign that says, "The End is Near", he's too old to stand on the corner and hold the sign anymore, but perhaps his son can take over, and 50 years later, his son's son, etc, ....anyway, it feels like it has been that long & like almost anybody except perhaps the Greeks themselves, I just want it to be over one way or the other so I don't have to read/hear about the BS anymore.

I have been having fun selling options into the small moves to channel top/bottom, won't be surprised if that is still the play for July-August, but maybe we will break out or break down? I just have small bets on for the break down, looking to a confluence of a bearish Fed and a more/more problematic Greek drama for the end of June/early July. But I don't really believe The End is Near....c'mon, seriously...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,587
  • Edited Jun 17, 2015 1:38am Jun 16, 2015 6:02pm | Edited Jun 17, 2015 1:38am
Dear all,

Related to Forex Volume I try to find out what a "high churn" and a "low churn" could be. Translators don't help here and I would appreciate a web link or an explanation very much.

Best Regards, Verified.

issue solved
  • #135,588
  • Jun 17, 2015 12:33am Jun 17, 2015 12:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I am 50/50 right now for a hike in September/hike next year which is clearly reflected both in US equities and bonds on the current levels. On the macro numbers front, NFP went back to the positive trend and most macro numbers show that the Q1 was a one off. However, latest inflation is not playing ball yet and short term risk in Europe (via Greece) could have an influence in the FED decision until the end of the summer. This FED meeting is super important. Its the first time in nearly 6 years that we have a (marginal) chance of a hike in...
Good to see u back....
Re-Incarnated
  • #135,589
  • Jun 17, 2015 2:18am Jun 17, 2015 2:18am
Last weekly signal:
2015.05.24-28. - BUY - Open/Close Mid: 1.10093
Buy signal came from:
- Bull weakness - but it has been bought up pretty accurately, while selling was at top -> so I think smart money is loaded there
-> Even if spiking down - 1.1 should be intact

What do you think?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,590
  • Jun 17, 2015 3:29am Jun 17, 2015 3:29am
Interesting, aggressive algorithms can be working, because the pair is moving odd in the last 24h...
I can see constantly tiny-tiny flickering (jiggle), something is going on.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,591
  • Jun 17, 2015 4:12am Jun 17, 2015 4:12am
Quoting hathor
Interesting, aggressive algorithms can be working, because the pair is moving odd in the last 24h... I can see constantly tiny-tiny flickering (jiggle), something is going on.
Agree. But pretty 'normal' behavior for the EURO on FOMC day, IMHO. It does seem to still be respecting S/R levels but with a bit more spikiness than usual. These are my st levels for scalping, most were on the chart since Sunday
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  • #135,592
  • Jun 17, 2015 4:17am Jun 17, 2015 4:17am
Quoting hathor
Last weekly signal: 2015.05.24-28. - BUY - Open/Close Mid: 1.10093 Buy signal came from: - Bull weakness - but it has been bought up pretty accurately, while selling was at top -> so I think smart money is loaded there -> Even if spiking down - 1.1 should be intact What do you think? {image} {image}
I have something like that too but I'd still rather see the alternate (small c) version of it first. They could still touch the bottom weekly t/l, take all the stops above 1.5, and leave the larger weekly down t/l intact that way, and fundamentally that makes more sense to me for the longer term.
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  • #135,593
  • Edited 7:56am Jun 17, 2015 7:43am | Edited 7:56am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Maybe. (Greece is the wild card.) But it would be a damn shame to make a new high without collecting the stops below 1175-50 first
Was thinking about this...
Now ('in the future') you know that was a buying zone, and there is a stop-cluster under it, but when the price was 'licking' under 1.12 (in that specific moment) it was rather bearish move, don't forget how that move was executed...
- it was Friday
- it was happening due to a disappointing european data [PPI]
- the move was cracking the previous day's low (which was a nice spiky low - full of longs)

Just like on 5th of June:
- it was Friday
- it was happening due to a very positive american data [Non-Farm Employment Change]
- the move was cracking the previous day's low (which was also full of longs)

Since these actions, the price didn't fall beyond these levels, the executed and held shorts are underwater and reaching your levels would let breath a lot of traders.
So if I'm right, than there won't be any spike down, only up-up-up and up.
Time will tell.

Any thoughts?
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,594
  • Jun 17, 2015 8:01am Jun 17, 2015 8:01am
Quoting hathor
Interesting, aggressive algorithms can be working, because the pair is moving odd in the last 24h... I can see constantly tiny-tiny flickering (jiggle), something is going on.
Good day
IMO , This session seems pretty harmonic . Nice move starting at 2:30am my time ( between e and London open) Ended and started a down ab=cd at 4:10 (daily roll kept this one from reaching target . Now looking at 1260 to 65 to start another leg up . ( I have 3 different mids clustering around 1265 ) target 1300

Im sure the mids I use are different ( shorter ) timeframes than you use .

Don't even know if they mean the same as I don't know about the " mofu " Trying to read up on this .

Good trading today
peace

edit: entry hit tite stop lets see
Peace
  • #135,595
  • Jun 17, 2015 8:40am Jun 17, 2015 8:40am
Quoting build11
{quote} Good day IMO , This session seems pretty harmonic . Nice move starting at 2:30am my time ( between e and London open) Ended and started a down ab=cd at 4:10 (daily roll kept this one from reaching target . Now looking at 1260 to 65 to start another leg up . ( I have 3 different mids clustering around 1265 ) target 1300 Im sure the mids I use are different ( shorter ) timeframes than you use . Don't even know if they mean the same as I don't know about the " mofu " Trying to read up on this . Good trading today peace edit: entry hit...
Good trading to you either!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,596
  • Jun 17, 2015 9:22am Jun 17, 2015 9:22am
edit: entry hit tite stop lets see[/quote]

S o
Welcome back sisse
Class is back in session

peace
Peace
  • #135,597
  • Jun 17, 2015 9:23am Jun 17, 2015 9:23am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Agree. But pretty 'normal' behavior for the EURO on FOMC day, IMHO. It does seem to still be respecting S/R levels but with a bit more spikiness than usual. These are my st levels for scalping, most were on the chart since Sunday {image}
One of these guys is going to have to go soon or life will be too easy.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #135,598
  • Jun 17, 2015 9:33am Jun 17, 2015 9:33am
Looking at this fall right now...people are brutally shorting the pair.
Nearly the same power of buying at today's top, but the shorting power is extended:
-> buying is more concentrated, than selling
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,599
  • Jun 17, 2015 9:48am Jun 17, 2015 9:48am
Quoting hathor
Looking at this fall right now...people are brutally shorting the pair. Nearly the same power of buying at today's top, but the shorting power is extended: -> buying is more concentrated, than selling
The last M15 (bear) candle has today's highest amount of execute...maybe the low?
Time will tell...
Inserted Video


We are here again:
Quoting hathor
{image} EurUsd Daily {image} EurUsd H4 {image} EurUsd H1 {image}
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,600
  • Jun 17, 2015 9:49am Jun 17, 2015 9:49am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Was thinking about this... Now ('in the future') you know that was a buying zone, and there is a stop-cluster under it, but when the price was 'licking' under 1.12 (in that specific moment) it was rather bearish move, don't forget how that move was executed... - it was Friday - it was happening due to a disappointing european data [PPI] - the move was cracking the previous day's low (which was a nice spiky low - full of longs) Just like on 5th of June: - it was Friday - it was happening due to a very positive american data [Non-Farm Employment...

Well I just go with 'most times'. I do have a pattern on the H4 tf that works most times that says 1150 is going to go as long as 1385 holds, and one on the H1 tf that says 1204 is going to go as long as 1330 holds (though the H1 again isn't as clean as the H4. Also 'most times clear higher tf trendlines ( line the one on the weekly) do get a third touch.

I can't argue with your logic though. Those locations where clear S broke and then the bears shorted the retest from the downside and got screwed when that didn't work out are great locations for longs, because all those bears want out, and price won't go lower as long as they do. So I think the resumption of downward momentum wont' be trustworthy until a retest from the downside actually holds in that area. Until that happens I have to agree that so far PA, with the monthly engulfing and the weekly higher high and higher low, PA is showing there is bullish momentum.

On the other hand, for me, a trend isn't over until the fat lady sings. The weekly trendlines are still intact, and of course in order to retest those trendlines, price has to go up temporarily.
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