NZD/USD

for update only,





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Just for future reference around what time does the NZD GDT Price Index usually come out around? or is it usually random? just looking for an around time figure that's usual if there is one

I was informed this:
By the way, anyone know where MaryAnne is?
Has been a while ...

900am to 10am EST is the usual release.

http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/

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for update only,

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I am happy now, it just came back to .70 mark and now looking for .72 mark too

wave 5 continues

for update only,




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Next week 's Monday :
1) NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m
2) NZD Credit Card Spending y/y
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For these data in the last year (2014), Monday, 23Jun2014,

NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m=0.3% (previous=1.7%)
NZD/USD was steady with small ripples.

NZD Credit Card Spending y/y=7.5% (previous=3.2%)
this made NZD/USD rocket up to max at the start of London session.
then euro data made it dropped.
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Today, Canada have CPI and Retail Sales, not sure how to affect NZD?!

(Last year, Friday, 20Jun2014 : whole afternoon on the Asian session NZD/USD dropped
and then about 11am US session rose slowly.)
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TPP off life support, final US 'fast-track' approval possible next week
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/ne...ectid=11467992
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Keith Woodford follows the trail of a huge live breeding ewe shipment to Mexico and is disturbed by what he finds
http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...-and-disturbed

NZ 's companies should not only ship 'breeding ewes to Mexico' but also all kinds of dairy animals for extending to northern hemisphere to avoid flattened on dairy products in winter of NZ in southern hemisphere.
to reduce the limit by different hemisphere.

MXN Aggregate Demand (YoY) (Q1)=3.50% expected=2.61%, previous=4.00%
http://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar

hope the NZ'S GDP would have been better than that.
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A change in diet will become increasingly necessary as an expanding current account deficit forces out the belt buckle a couple more notches, says Infometrics
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/76080...deficit-forces
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From Westpac this morning (I like the bit about Frankenstein!!):

In contrast, the exchange rate is clearly heading in a direction
that will please the RBNZ. Our strategists aptly described the
New Zealand dollar as “the Frankenstein of FX, being pursued
by villagers with torches and pitchforks”. From a high of 0.88
last year, the NZD/USD exchange rate has fallen as low as
0.69 after the weak GDP result, and we expect it to continue
tracking down to 0.64 over the next few months.

However, this is far from cause for alarm. We’ve noted many
times in the past that a floating exchange rate provides an
important buffer against changing international conditions, such
as swings in commodity prices. And as it turns out, the fall in
the NZD to date is bang in line with the fall in prices for New
Zealand’s commodity export basket.

Of course, there is substantial variation within that basket,
which can’t be remedied through the exchange rate. Dairy
prices are weak, but lamb and wood prices are around
average, while beef and wool prices remain strong. If the RBNZ
is placing a particularly high weight on the dairying sector, it will
probably welcome further currency weakness from here. Or to
put it another way, the RBNZ won’t want to set monetary policy
in a way that hinders the NZD’s decline. With financial markets
already building in a 75% chance of an OCR cut in July, the
choice seems straightforward.

source: http://www.westpac.co.nz/assets/Busi....2015-NZWC.pdf

Cheers, Motu

wave 5 goes on

slowly building some long positions

Highly oversold conditions across all time-frames. High time that we could possibly witness some shorts taking profit off the table.
Expecting a bounce from near 0.6800 mark support, also nearing July 2010 lows of 0.6795, towards 0.6870-80 area.

Bullish divergence H1

close my eyes an it's still short on this pair.