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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,521
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:26pm Jun 15, 2015 12:26pm
Quoting historian
Map is all clear. 1.12xxx at play clearing the floor for 1.115xx. Same play, same everthing. Nothing to see. GL. Historian
excellent forecast, sir. for the next time, less same, same and more value please. yes, nothing to see from your side.

regards, verified.
  • #135,522
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:06pm Jun 15, 2015 1:06pm
lol ^
  • #135,523
  • Jun 15, 2015 4:06pm Jun 15, 2015 4:06pm
Quoting verified
{quote} excellent forecast, sir. for the next time, less same, same and more value please. yes, nothing to see from your side. regards, verified.
Peace
  • #135,524
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:04am Jun 16, 2015 1:04am
Interesting article about the yield spreads
http://www.efxnews.com/story/29334/e...es-it-mean-ing
  • #135,525
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:21am Jun 16, 2015 1:21am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I have two contradictory signals today. One on the H1 says we are going to take out (or at least try for) the high at 1295. The other says we are going to take out the low at 1156 (H4 signal). The H4 signal looks cleaner than the H1 signal. The usual way this (contradictory signals on different tfs) plays out for this signal is that first the lower tf one gets attempted and then the higher (H4) takes place. So I think we're in for some more chop today.
Well the first part of it ( the H1 pattern ) in in play. It's a difficult to say at this point if it's played out because this side (the H1 side of the move) wasn't quite as perfect looking of a pattern as the H4 side was, but probably it wants a bit higher. The way this particular pattern works is that it will usually go at least as high as the previous peak that makes the pattern, which this one almost did. Missed by a pip or two. Most times it goes higher at least by a few pips, in which case it might need 1311-1335 to finish. The H4 pattern (calling for price to take out 1150 to the downside) is still intact as long as 1385 isn't breached. I'm just going to be watching PA between 1295 and 1380 to look for a convincing short signal
  • #135,526
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:11am Jun 16, 2015 2:11am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Well the first part of it ( the H1 pattern ) in in play. It's a difficult to say at this point if it's played out because this side (the H1 side of the move) wasn't quite as perfect looking of a pattern as the H4 side was, but probably it wants a bit higher. The way this particular pattern works is that it will usually go at least as high as the previous peak that makes the pattern, which this one almost did. Missed by a pip or two. Most times it goes higher at least by a few pips, in which case it might need 1311-1335 to finish. The H4...
please post when you see this pattern approaching. not as a trading recommondation.

best, verified.
  • #135,527
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:12am Jun 16, 2015 2:12am
Quoting verified
{quote} please post when you see this pattern approaching. not as a trading recommondation. best, verified.
What? Don't quite understand what you mean here?
  • #135,528
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:16am Jun 16, 2015 2:16am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} What? Don't quite understand what you mean here?
when you see that the Price will reverse
  • #135,529
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:22am Jun 16, 2015 2:22am
Morning guys,

IMHO, the pair definately has 1.153x in its book, a bit more push from the fundi side, e.g. Jellen, the pair can see 1.16x, but anywhere higher will see "bulls coughing a lot" quote master Sisse!
With Fed raising rates, ECB liking a weaker EUR, the pair will see parity and sub-parity levels.
Summer's low liquidity must be taken into consideration, especially August, don't know who are trading...

And last but not the least, Sisse, please come back!!!!!!
  • #135,530
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:34am Jun 16, 2015 2:34am
Quoting verified
{quote} when you see that the Price will reverse
This pattern is not a reversal pattern.

It's a pattern that says when it's likely that a given higher high or lower low will get taken out. Like yesterday, when I posted I said that the pattern on the one hour said that price will attempt to take out 1295 on the next 1hr swing up, and most times when you see that particular pattern it will succeed..

The same pattern on the four hour tf says that price will also attempt to take out 1150 to the down side on the next 4hr swing down, and most times when you see that pattern it will succeed, at least by a pip or two. That is valid as long as the peak at 1385 (which helped to form the pattern) doesn't go.
  • #135,531
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:36am Jun 16, 2015 2:36am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Well the first part of it ( the H1 pattern ) in in play. It's a difficult to say at this point if it's played out because this side (the H1 side of the move) wasn't quite as perfect looking of a pattern as the H4 side was, but probably it wants a bit higher. The way this particular pattern works is that it will usually go at least as high as the previous peak that makes the pattern, which this one almost did. Missed by a pip or two. Most times it goes higher at least by a few pips, in which case it might need 1311-1335 to finish. The H4...
I'm on the same page, eyeing 1346-1366 area..
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  • #135,532
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:40am Jun 16, 2015 2:40am
thank you both ! i learn and i try to understand.

best, v
  • #135,533
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:51am Jun 16, 2015 2:51am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} I'm on the same page, eyeing 1346-1366 area.. {image}
In another pov we have st bears targeting 1132, its norm retrace was at 1322. Currently there is no bear setup that needs a higher price, only st bulls. I'm waiting on the sidelines to figure out their play
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  • #135,534
  • Edited 4:09am Jun 16, 2015 3:08am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} In another pov we have st bears targeting 1132, its norm retrace was at 1322. Currently there is no bear setup that needs a higher price, only st bulls. I'm waiting on the sidelines to figure out their play {image}
That bounce just now there at 1329 was right on 50% of the daily ADR (using the monthly average). Lately it's been going to 75% of the Adr and quitting on up days. 75% is at 1365, which also happens to be the top of a London OR that overshot it and reversed with pinbars. So seems like a good place to look. Got R2 up there at 60 and 25% of the downswing there too at 65
  • #135,535
  • Edited 9:39am Jun 16, 2015 3:15am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting Shunyi
Morning guys, IMHO, the pair definately has 1.153x in its book, a bit more push from the fundi side, e.g. Jellen, the pair can see 1.16x, but anywhere higher will see "bulls coughing a lot" quote master Sisse! With Fed raising rates, ECB liking a weaker EUR, the pair will see parity and sub-parity levels. Summer's low liquidity must be taken into consideration, especially August, don't know who are trading... And last but not the least, Sisse, please come back!!!!!!
1.153 will be on the cards but only once/if the bulls can resolve 1.22 1.122. A particularly dovish FED pushing hikes toward the end of the year will open that path. I'm slightly more constructive on the $ though. Recent prints have been strong on employment, inflation and demand and I think there will be a credibility issue if the FED keeps holding off and kicking the rates can. Besides, everyone's on the front foot for the hikes except for super pigs so why risk roiling the markets by hiking later. A slight tightening on monetary policy just to keep in line and reflect especially the progress in the labor markets and minimizing the risk of being forced to do it later when inflation can potentially go out of hand.


Quoting MissPips
Interesting article about the yield spreads http://www.efxnews.com/story/29334/e...es-it-mean-ing
Just looking at this current drop on the bonds and looking at the charts I think the bund has far less leeway to fall than treasuries short-term. Let's see if the bund continues to stall out at 100 basis points once/if this greek cloud vanishes.
  • #135,536
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:09am Jun 16, 2015 4:09am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} That bounce just now there at 1329 was right on 50% of the daily ADR (using the monthly average). Lately it's been going to 75% of the Adr and quitting on up days. 75% is at 1365, which also happens to be the top of a London OR that overshot it and reversed with pinbars. So seems like a good place to look. Got R2 up there at 60 and 25% of the downswing there too at 65
Prolly won't make it to 65 now after ZEW
  • #135,537
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:18am Jun 16, 2015 4:18am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Prolly won't make it to 65 now after ZEW
In a market maker view:
new low is full of shorts due to the bad data + because of engulfing H4 bear candle, short sentiment will increase on the way up -> stop cluster over the H4 spike -> so likely a new high is on the way.

Contra:
mild H4 sell signal appeared at 1.12736.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,538
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:56am Jun 16, 2015 4:56am
Quoting hathor
{quote} In a market maker view: new low is full of shorts due to the bad data + because of engulfing H4 bear candle, short sentiment will increase on the way up -> stop cluster over the H4 spike -> so likely a new high is on the way. Contra: mild H4 sell signal appeared at 1.12736.
Maybe. (Greece is the wild card.)
But it would be a damn shame to make a new high without collecting the stops below 1175-50 first
  • #135,539
  • Jun 16, 2015 5:06am Jun 16, 2015 5:06am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Maybe. (Greece is the wild card.) But it would be a damn shame to make a new high without collecting the stops below 1175-50 first
Maybe you are right...
But that levels are the bears target and reaching that would make them win, but as far as I can see...market wants to trap/absorb as many short as it can...before The move.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,540
  • Jun 16, 2015 5:10am Jun 16, 2015 5:10am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Maybe. (Greece is the wild card.) But it would be a damn shame to make a new high without collecting the stops below 1175-50 first
. Will reload if you eat em
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