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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #761
  • Jun 14, 2015 2:40pm Jun 14, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} DONE. Could head back down anywhere above 1.1266. Usdjpy also needs to clear 124.16 today or 123.80 monday
Awesome. Based on TZ i expected the spike up and then back down as seen from my previous posts. Most times if you know your TZs well the spike are best short entry points. Like a bull trap.
Expectin to short GU above 1.5615 if we get there and long uj below 122.45 if we get there. Setting up my trade explorer to test my new discoveries.
  • #762
  • Jun 15, 2015 8:08am Jun 15, 2015 8:08am
Taking my first trade aased on TZ shorting audnzd at 1.1100 exxpecting it to clear 1.1046. Will update if any changes. Fxpro demo servers i guess have been changed, oo im having issues setoing up trade explorer now
  • #763
  • Jun 15, 2015 10:05am Jun 15, 2015 10:05am
Quoting ephisi
Taking my first trade aased on TZ shorting audnzd at 1.1100 exxpecting it to clear 1.1046. Will update if any changes. Fxpro demo servers i guess have been changed, oo im having issues setoing up trade explorer now
2nd trade based on TZ. shorting eurusd 1.1280 expecting to clear 1.1204. Will post any change in plans. Will create a thread where i can post my analysis and calls so i dont high jack vlads thread
  • #764
  • Jun 15, 2015 10:38am Jun 15, 2015 10:38am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} 2nd trade based on TZ. shorting eurusd 1.1280 expecting to clear 1.1204. Will post any change in plans. Will create a thread where i can post my analysis and calls so i dont high jack vlads thread
Don't worry mate... you go for it. Don't feel like you're hijacking. I've not been here for 6 months so don't feel any kind of marriage to this thread other than starting it.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #765
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:26pm Jun 15, 2015 1:26pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Don't worry mate... you go for it. Don't feel like you're hijacking. I've not been here for 6 months so don't feel any kind of marriage to this thread other than starting it.
Ok mate. Will post here also. Btw Nice trading from you today.
  • #766
  • Jun 19, 2015 6:05am Jun 19, 2015 6:05am
Oops wrong thread
  • #767
  • Jun 19, 2015 7:01am Jun 19, 2015 7:01am
By using the 1 hour chart, we must have a lot of currencies open. Has anyone found an alert or simple way to know when a signal has formed?
  • #768
  • Jun 26, 2015 11:50pm Jun 26, 2015 11:50pm
Hi,
I would be grateful if someone shares this indicator for tranzient zones used on the screenshot in that post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post7873652

I looks like it keeps history of all ptz visually so that you can see which developed in real transient zones and which became recurrent.
Thanks in advance
  • #769
  • Jun 27, 2015 12:00am Jun 27, 2015 12:00am
Quoting radenovgroup
Hi, I would be grateful if someone shares this indicator for tranzient zones used on the screenshot in that post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post7873652 I looks like it keeps history of all ptz visually so that you can see which developed in real transient zones and which became recurrent. Thanks in advance
There you go pal
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Sciurus_recurrence_V1.8.mq4   13 KB | 796 downloads
A Positive Mind, and Positive Spirit lead to True Happiness
  • #770
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:03pm Jul 12, 2015 7:03pm
usdgbp If this 2nd mid TZ breaks up look for 156.50 +
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 90 KB
Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #771
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:15pm Jul 12, 2015 11:15pm
Quoting HighFivve
usdgbp If this 2nd mid TZ breaks up look for 156.50 + {image}
Very good. I'd agree with that. Either TZ are likely. Approach it with the view of no expectation. That way you could put in straddle orders now or wait for a reaction. Either way you have a trade plan.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #772
  • Edited 9:44am Jul 19, 2015 9:25am | Edited 9:44am
OK so as I gain more understanding the Eureka events are increasing

Still did not feel I had a correct rasp so I have been going over Eurusdd's quotes and getting clues and hints from all of the great TZ/RZ communities.

Some quotes that turned lights on for me:

"You do not know if that region is transient or recurrent yet because it is still forming. What you do though is wait. The moment price goes above that region, you can assume it is transient and then prices very close above it recurrent. Those prices are the ones you will expect a re-visit within at least one of the remaining h bars."

So this region is self derived??? Say 3 pip max for example

Because it's still forming we must have set a floor or ceiling defined as to where a break of the region would occur given we still have remaining Hs to fulfill before calling the zone transient.

So we are looking for PTZ with self defined low pip box sizes (Regions or K) and...

"if price goes above the region before it is done forming, you can assume it is transient and the prices above it recurrent. Those prices are the ones you will expect to be re-visited, not the prices in the region."

So lets say we in and uptrend and we have -H covered. We are in the clear and each price that breaks the previous high price begins your "region"

So for example last high price was 100 and prices goes to 101

101 triggers PTZ "region"

We already have cleared -H and now our PTZ "region" begins
We have set out region at 3 pips

So we box 101-103 (even if price has not been above 101)

We are waiting for a break of 103

now come max deviation

the max deviation from break before entering counter high probability trend trade (stochastic process makes this work)

Lets say max=spread +1 - 10 pips (example)

Given a 2 pip spread we would enter short at 106-115 for a 1 to 10 pip target at 105

time limit is the remaining +H from the PTZ below.

All trades will be counter trend!!! If uptrend and PTZ forms and price breaks below well...its no longer a PTZ. Price had become recurrent....

So the idea is to avoid TZ by assuming all PTZ are TZ once price breaks above Defined PTZ "region" in UPTREND and below in Downtrend.

Trade the Revisits


So now can anyone code an indicator that allows one to set a static box size based on pips instead of going with the size of wicks and bars for PTZ???

Many thanks for anyone who will


OH and you must have that high probability H!!!
Attached Image
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #773
  • Jul 20, 2015 3:32pm Jul 20, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote} OK, I see myself going in circles. It's amazing to go back and read ones own earlier comments. Problem is no indicator has been created to explore the constant K as described. All are letting K depend on the bar unless I have not seen it. Also K is looked at differently that I understand. So...??? This brings it down to price and a zone the the problem price lives in. Treat the zone as a transient even though it is not finished building thus avoiding it completely and trading the almost sure recurrent zone above it. Above the region, above...
Â
K has never been outwardly defined by the author. Therefore, all k can ever be is a speculated figure.ÂÂ
In the end, the entire TZ phenomenon can be utilised without necessarily knowing k. It is far better to get an insight into values for h.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #774
  • Jul 20, 2015 4:14pm Jul 20, 2015 4:14pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} K has never been outwardly defined by the author. Therefore, all k can ever be is a speculated figure. In the end, the entire TZ phenomenon can be utilised without necessarily knowing k. It is far better to get an insight into values for h.

Indeed but there have been quotes of eurusdd's that seem to not have be explored. I would like to yet I don't have the coding knowledge..yet.

like this

"You do not know if that region is transient or recurrent yet because it is still forming. What you do though is wait. The moment price goes above that region, you can assume it is transient and then prices very close above it recurrent. Those prices are the ones you will expect a re-visit within at least one of the remaining h bars."

What defines the "region"?
Given -h bars have passed and we get a ptz how would one trade a break of the ptz in direction of trend before the region is complete less we give the region a predefined height?

Be it K or not this was mentioned early on in the TZ lessons. It seems to make sense that no wick can be part of a TZ. By nature of a wick those prices have recurred.
Such as this picture was discussed by erusdd in post

and

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post7678923

This event must happen before +h is complete


and Scurius
"Here is my take.
eurusdd uses set notation. In my interpretation, it reads something like this: At any point in time and on any time frame, either price+k or price-k is recurrent for any given h.
Therefor, k is the number of pips (above or below) current price before price becomes recurrent."


Would be nice to explore this approach as such. Defining a constant zone size and such. I will try it on higher time frames manually until then even though I dont agree that you can find TZs on higher time frames because it's based on a price that will not be returned to vs a zone. A single price with a buffer is how I see it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 33 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf EureKa 2.pdf   187 KB | 976 downloads
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #775
  • Jul 20, 2015 4:34pm Jul 20, 2015 4:34pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Indeed but there have been quotes of eurusdd's that seem to not have be explored. I would like to yet I don't have the coding knowledge..yet. like this "You do not know if that region is transient or recurrent yet because it is still forming. What you do though is wait. The moment price goes above that region, you can assume it is transient and then prices very close above it recurrent. Those prices are the ones you will expect a re-visit within at least one of the remaining h bars." What defines the "region"? Given -h bars have passed and...
Very good insight Billyon. Thanks.
Best, Josh
  • #776
  • Jul 20, 2015 10:20pm Jul 20, 2015 10:20pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Indeed but there have been quotes of eurusdd's that seem to not have be explored. I would like to yet I don't have the coding knowledge..yet. like this "You do not know if that region is transient or recurrent yet because it is still forming. What you do though is wait. The moment price goes above that region, you can assume it is transient and then prices very close above it recurrent. Those prices are the ones you will expect a re-visit within at least one of the remaining h bars." What defines the "region"? Given -h bars have passed and...
 
By all means, investigate! My own research concluded that k Had to be a combination of spread and/error or slippage. I disregarded the study after trying to find the best way for me to trade it. 
 
There is a thread called Trading the Middle TZ. They have an excellent approach which is a mirror of how some of the private group and a few independent researching traders did it as well.... To me, this shows that the approach or practical trade implementation is where it's at. No one has produced a working EA of TZ "method" hence why I say K can be ignored to save you the time/trouble.
 
Referring to your comment re TZ and higher timeframe, attached is Monthly EURUSD. It works just the same. Again..to me, it's how you trade it. At this level, my view of K (spread/slippage) is irrelevant, if my view of K was ever correct.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 539 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #777
  • Jul 21, 2015 1:27am Jul 21, 2015 1:27am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} No one has produced a working EA of TZ "method" hence why I say K can be ignored to save you the time/trouble. Referring to your comment re TZ and higher timeframe, attached is Monthly EURUSD. It works just the same. Again..to me, it's how you trade it. At this level, my view of K (spread/slippage) is irrelevant, if my view of K was ever correct. {image}
I have a different view on k. I am not the original author so I cannot proclaim that I am correct in my assertion.

I have responded to Bill on another forum with my thoughts on what k really is. But I have never spoken on how one could use it.
To recap, k is simply the measure of the zone's height. Points, pips whatever.
What is it measuring? It is measuring the delta of the retrace (in the given h period).

How do we use this? Many ways. (I would love to hear of more from other traders??)
One way is this: if one were targeting a TZ assuming it will fail, one can set the target as the zone less the likely size of k. This way if price retraces but doesn't go far enough to make a zone fail (become recurrent) our target is more likely to be hit. If price does go far enough to make the zone become recurrent, well then of course our target still gets hit. The idea is to use k to increase your probability.

However, I don't use k like that. I might play around with that in the future, but currently I target a bit beyond the zone (and use breakeven to cover the trades that don't reach the TZ).
The main thing I use k for is to filter out false targets. Well shall we say, less likely false targets.
What's it all about? It's all about money.
  • #778
  • Jul 21, 2015 1:32am Jul 21, 2015 1:32am
Quoting Innate
{quote} I have a different view on k. I am not the original author so I cannot proclaim that I am correct in my assertion. I have responded to Bill on another forum with my thoughts on what k really is. But I have never spoken on how one could use it. To recap, k is simply the measure of the zone's height. Points, pips whatever. What is it measuring? It is measuring the delta of the retrace (in the given h period). How do we use this? Many ways. (I would love to hear of more from other traders??) One way is this: if one were targeting a TZ assuming...
That part is the only part that is attractive enough to ask for "how" / "what".
Your idea of height is in line with everyone else's I think. My idea of that based on Left and Right Zones is essentially, the wick. In theory then you could apply the zone as Z, lets say 25 pips. If within H (let's say 4 bars of 15M) a retrace happened and the new Right Hand Z is now 15 then K is 10 which in theory you could apply to future TZ and say if K is 10 and price hits the range within K enter trade.

In that sense, I can see the practical application of it.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #779
  • Jul 24, 2015 6:54pm Jul 24, 2015 6:54pm
Quoting Innate
{quote} I have a different view on k. I am not the original author so I cannot proclaim that I am correct in my assertion. I have responded to Bill on another forum with my thoughts on what k really is. But I have never spoken on how one could use it. To recap, k is simply the measure of the zone's height. Points, pips whatever. What is it measuring? It is measuring the delta of the retrace (in the given h period). How do we use this? Many ways. (I would love to hear of more from other traders??) One way is this: if one were targeting a TZ assuming...

It measures this only if using the bar for your TZ

if using price one can simply choose k (zone height) . Maybe we can get an average running bar tz height to derive k for future zones? Deriving k is your own special secret remember??? Say the average is 4 pips based on the last day of tzs. we then apply a 4 pip buffer (K) above 1st possible transient price (PTP) and wait for the buffer to break

are you targeting TZs or PTZs?

I'm targeting PTZs. The recurrent areas above them. The only way to get above a PTZ is the set K yourself.

Trading already completed TZs seem to be what you guys are focusing on. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I still don't see logic if spotting possible transient prices from higher time frames. I do understand that many ideas have birthed from the original but I wold not call them actual TZ based on how I understand them. Or more rather being able to know if a price has recurred or not less you are looking at the market through a microscope IE lowest time frame possible.

Set K-
wait for ptz-
price breaks out of K -
know your +h probability of recurrence
wait for deviation from break
take trade targeting non recurrent prices above K if any are left.

This may work best during hot news and such causing a blast of non recurred prices that clear pretty quickly. Can they be harvested????


Looking doubtful the more I think on it...
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #780
  • Jul 26, 2015 6:39pm Jul 26, 2015 6:39pm
Hi Bill,
Sorry I am confused from your post. I will try to answer best I can. Can you post a screen shot of what you mean? I picture is worth a thousand words as they say.

Quoting BillYon
{quote} It measures this only if using the bar for your TZ if using price one can simply choose k (zone height)
Yes I am using traditional bar charts. How else are you applying the TZ's? Tick or renko charts?

Quoting BillYon
{quote} Maybe we can get an average running bar tz height to derive k for future zones? Deriving k is your own special secret remember???
Yes that is what I do. Collate data on the k values. Deriving k is not that much of a secret.
I would like to attempt measuring it in ATR one day.

Quoting BillYon
{quote} we then apply a 4 pip buffer (K) above 1st possible transient price (PTP) and wait for the buffer to break are you targeting TZs or PTZs?
I am totally confused by this statement.

Quoting BillYon
{quote} The recurrent areas above them. The only way to get above a PTZ is the set K yourself.
Again this statement makes no sense to me. Please explain clearer.

Quoting BillYon
{quote} Trading already completed TZs seem to be what you guys are focusing on. Correct me if I'm wrong.
No I trade pTZ's only. Yes price also revisits transient price levels. I consider those ones to be a bonus. i.e. I enter a trade when the TZ is still potential, and enough time goes by that the zone remains transient, however sometimes my target still gets hit.

Quoting BillYon
{quote} I still don't see logic if spotting possible transient prices from higher time frames.
I dont do this but the logic is clear. Trade towards a TZ on a higher timeframe that has a statistical likelihood of failing. Effectively you can use this technique to identify the HTF trend.

Quoting BillYon
{quote} I do understand that many ideas have birthed from the original but I wold not call them actual TZ based on how I understand them.
Thats the beauty of TZ's, everyone is applying them differently.
However I think the logic of the theorem is pretty clear. People are over-complicating it in some attempt to find a hidden meaning. It is just statistics. Take trades that have a higher statistical chance of going in the given direction.

Quoting BillYon
{quote} Or more rather being able to know if a price has recurred or not less you are looking at the market through a microscope IE lowest time frame possible.
I dont believe that is how you apply them. However if you can make it work I am all ears.

Quoting BillYon
{quote} Set K- wait for ptz- price breaks out of K - know your +h probability of recurrence wait for deviation from break take trade targeting non recurrent prices above K if any are left.
You have totally lost me here. This does not explain a trade logic clearly.
What's it all about? It's all about money.
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