Hedge Fund Styles Trading - Long and Short Term Setups

Haha! Definitely going Short on AUD/USD....My Short Trade got stopped out with an extra spread, but I was so close to stay in...

Stop-Loss was at 77930 - when i checked it closed me at 77928... This is not Fair at all....

Let's see if both NZD and AUD can stay DOWN till Friday.....We have some Chinese News Overnight!!! Let's hope for a Negative
Data, mate!

Later then!

Jay

A quick Recap from a Friend that I follow dearly.

Fundamentals:

The USD remains the strongest currency in the longer term. The recent NFP reading has reaffirmed
USD strength amid speculation of a rate hike by September. Although we expect bullish sentiment
on the dollar to remain in the near term, it is near its long-term highs against most counterparts and
therefore may be susceptible to pullacks – such pullbacks will likely provide buying opportunities.

The EUR remains fundamentally weak due to QE and the ongoing Greek debt issue, however recent
inflation and unemployment numbers have signalled that a recovery is on track, which has given the
currency some positive sentiment recently. If Greece fails to make any of their imminent repayments,
the euro will be pressured. Conversely, a deal with a solid resolution will precipitate a relief rally.

GBP is looking at a rate hike in the next 12 months. There is no clear sentiment on pound at present.
We await some tier-1 data to help guide trading decisions on the currency.

AUD: Low commodity prices and a slowdown in China has put bearish pressure on the AUD, however
the recent RBA statement did not include any specific mention of further cuts and stated that inflation
is expected to remain within target. Last week saw mixed data from Australia, with both better and
worse data coming in. Overall the bias for AUD is on the bearish side of neutral, until we see more data.
The market surprisingly shrugged off Stephens’s bearish comments yesterday and today’s stellar jobs
report has given bullish sentiment to AUD.

NZD now has a new official cash rate of 3.25% after the RBNZ cut rates. They have left the door open
for further easing and as such the Kiwi dollar is a bearish currency.

CAD remains on the weaker side of neutral. CAD will take most of its direction from any significant
changes in the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. When there is no oil-related news, the oil
price will generally move with negative correlation to the USD.

JPY remains bearish due to QQE. Yen weakness has accelerated recently on the back of USD strength.
Yen is at a 12-year low against the dollar. Sentiment on the JPY can turn bullish quickly if there is severe
uncertainty in the markets. Language from the BOJ shows they believe a recovery is beginning and QQE
is having its intended effect. Recent positive GDP readings have dampened speculation of any additional
easing, and Kuroda’s recent comments have spurred strength in the yen.

CHF is fundamentally a weaker currency given the SNB’s negative interest rates. It is highly susceptible
to volatility due to SNB potentially intervening to weaken the currency as it tends to strengthen on
safe-haven demand. CHF often will take direction from the EUR with which its correlation over the last
50 trading days is approximately 75%.

Hope you Enjoy a Good Read..... This week was a Great Week!!!

I don't trade Fridays, I mostly Observe the Market and look for setups for the coming weak ahead!

Thanks for the input Jay

Yeah price acts funny on Fridays....was a bad week for me as I lost around 150 pips..lucky I don't trade big so its ok...I also don't place trades on a Friday...I tend to locate or find out what the institutions are doing on a Monday and then look for opportunities on a Tuesday..i just look at daily time frames...look for a good pair or 2 and just place my TP and SL...most of the time either is hit on a Wednesday..i sometimes place trades on a Wednesday too..I placed a buy order on EURCAD and EURJPY after strong bullish closes on Monday...I was so sure that it was going to continue in the same direction. Well it wasn't to be and my SL was hit ...still cant understand why it went down after a good rise, there was no news either so still scratching my head ....I have been successful often trading the same way though...Lets see what next week brings

Regards
Dennis

You are welcome Dennis,

I have to say that I really appreciate your interest, and your engagement to this thread, and I can guarantee you that we will do a lot
of damages good in this Forum, and provide the best trade Setups for new traders and seasonal traders out there.

Yeah! Trading is definitely a daily grind, sometimes you have to lose trades in order to figure out the story behind your decisions....I think
that you will do better this week, but you have to be very careful....This week is going to be crazy in terms of volatilities....I tell you what,
I gave my opinion on EUR/JPY and it seems like you missed it (Please, check Post #8)....Pairs like EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and GBP/NZD are a bit
tricky to trade unless you follow them closely.....

The fact that there was uncertainty on EUR ( Greek Situation).... EUR/JPY had to ride with USD/JPY Bearish Momentum...We should have
seen it coming...I had a short trade on EUR/USD, and got stopped out because I ignored the JPY News that night.

I do analyse the Market on Higher TimeFrame, but I never trade on Higher TF.... I think you should try trading on M30TF, and still use
your Market Bias on Higher TF as a reason to get in Long or Short....

This week, I am going to post Chart work with more details and follow-up so that I can give other traders a second opinion with clarity..Will
provide levels of Entries, Stop-Losses Areas, and even Take Profit Targets.....

Hi Jay,

Yes I have had some bad experiences with AudJpy pair..Yes yen pairs are unpredictable at times..i do look at around 12 to 18 pairs but try and look for best setups which is quite tough. I will try and look for entries on lower time frames just to see how it works. Lets see how this week turns out. Looking forward to ur analysis brother.


Regards
Dennis

Hi Dennis,

This might be too much to ask, but you are more than welcome to post some of your charts work here,
and maybe I can go over them so that we both can have second opinions. I did look at EUR/CAD, and this
was a hard pair to trade last week....EUR/CAD had to feed off of USD/CAD weakness....As you know EURCAD
is a combination of EUR/USD and USD/CAD.

There are two things that I have noticed, and I hope that next time you will see them before you make
any decisions on any pairs.

#1.- It's always best to BUY at Support Level and SELL at resistance Level...If you are on a strong Bullish/Bearish
pair, just wait for a small pullback before going in, cause you do not want to risk too much....

#2.- Always use my FX Supreme Meter Indicator to identify Daily Market Sentiment on any Pairs.
On Monday, EUR was Strong, and CAD was weak (Clearly that was a Buy Trade), but that Tuesday EUR became
weak, and CAD was Strong....Definitely a LONG Trade would be a guaranteed Loss....

Upcoming Daily Market Calendar:

There's nothing going on Sunday Night, so I am going to skip it and Focus on Monday...

Monday, June 15th, 2015


Impact News ( Time is Central Time)

2:00am..........EUR........German Buba Pres. Weidmann Speaks

2:15am.........CHF.........PPI / Retail Sales

2:30am........AUD.........RBA Assist Gov. Kent Speaks

7:30am........CAD........Manufacturing Sales

....................USD.......Empire State Manufacturing Index

8:00am.......EUR........ECB President Draghi Speaks

8:15am.......USD........Capacity Utilization Rate / Industrial Production

9:00am.......USD........NAHB Housing Market Index

4:55pm.......AUD........RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks

8:30pm......AUD........Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

Note: I am listing all the combinations for Monday News Events, but I am not going to trade
them all...I figure some people like to trade Exotic Pairs, so my job is to provide Insights on all pairs
necessary...

Currency Market News: EUR - CHF - AUD - CAD - USD

*EUR/CHF - EUR/AUD - EUR/CAD - EUR/USD

*AUD/CHF - CAD/CHF - USD/CHF

*AUD/CAD - AUD/USD

*USD/CAD

*USD/JPY -------GBP/USD (only there for London Session Trading. LOL)

EUR/CHF Insight:

Most people don't like trading CHF pairs, and clearly they have a good reason for it (January 15th, Tsunami).
I don't blame them, but since trading is a grind, it's best to challenge ourselves and embrace the reality of
trading...You lose some, and you win some....Don't let this pair scares yall!

From the get-go, I do have a BEARISH BIAS on this Pair because of two things:

- We have a Bearish Butterfly in Play, and I expect more Downside this week.

- The Market Direction has been BEARISH for quite some time.


Note: Before you place any positions as a trader, I highly recommend that you go to your FX Supreme Meter
indicator and look for 2 things.... You want to see that (1)EUR is Weak and (2)CHF is Strong....

Remember: EUR/CHF is a Sell Trade if and only If (EUR Weak / CHF Strong )

Now, this is going to be a Tricky Trade, because we have EUR News at 2:00am CST, and CHF News at 2:15amCST.

When in Doubt, stay out! Just Trade this thing after the News.......and around 8:00am Draghi Speaks (Be Careful )

EUR/AUD Insight:

I am not going to say much on this pair, because there's really nothing big to say at this point...
All I know is in many occasions this pair has a tendency to Move in the Opposite side of AUD/USD.


Now, EUR/AUD will find its strength or Weaknesses based on two News Events:

- EUR------ECB President Draghi Speaks at 8:00am CST
- AUD -----Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 8:30pm CST

As you can see this Pair has been BULLISH (Look H4 TF), and right now its about to move UP after that
small Bearish Pullback from Last week. Price Action is at 50% Fib Level, and this is a Good Thing.

As long as Price Action stays above 1.44850 Support Level, we should be looking to go LONG this week...

Note: If Draghi Statement is positive for EUR tomorrow morning (June 15th), we should go LONG all the way.
Get as much profits as we can, and close them trades before 8:30pm. I have a feeling that AUD News is going
to be Negative, but do not rely on that at all....Just wait for other traders reactions before placing any trades
around 8:30pm. Better yet, check your Supreme Meter Indicator for Strength and Weaknesses!

EUR/CAD Insight:

This pair has been BULLISH, but last week Short-Term Pullback was a bit surprising, but I figure since
Greece Crisis is on the News, some people are skeptical about EUR Direction, and they ended up picking
the wrong direction by simply assuming, but they forgot to pay attention about the Actual Chart...

Whenever there's uncertainty on EUR, EURCAD has a tendency to follow USDCAD direction, and this is
something that I have learned throughout my experiences and Observations....

I am still BULLISH on this Pair, but I have to wait for a Nice Entry Level to go Long...I do need to wait
for more Bullish Evidence. The Bearish Pullback is too deep, and Price Action needs to trade above the
50% Fib level again....

Last but not least, EUR Needs to be Strong / CAD needs to be Weak comes Monday after Draghi Statement.

EUR/USD Insight:

Last week, I was BEARISH on this pair, but I got stopped out because there was some JPY news
and it was definitely Negative for USD/JPY, and clearly EUR/USD took advantage of it, but lost
momentum after.

I have to say it's very challenging for traders out there to trade many EUR Pairs especially when you
have different Stories on each of them....Right now, I am still BEARISH on EUR/USD but I would like to
see Price Action tests and re-test 1.13300ish and show me some Bearish Evidence after....

Meaning, I will only trade this Pair after Draghi Statement, because I do need to have a clear picture of the
Direction of the Market....

Keep in mind, if EUR is positive after the News...EUR/CHF might be a bit tricky to trade unless EUR/CHF rides
with the Bearish Momentum of USD/CHF... (This is extremely Important for traders)


Note: I will make a case for LONG TRADE in the morning, because I need more data and Draghi statement
is very important for me as well.....

AUD/CHF Insight:

AUD/CHF is a very interesting pair to trade, and I had my fair share over the years...Now, if you enjoy
trading Exotic Pairs, I think that you might find something great here if you pay attention....This pair
doesn't move that much, but if you like to trade Asian Session, you might trade this thing for quick
50-60 pips at time especially when we have AUD News around 7pm through 9pm ish

I am very BEARISH on this Pair, and I do believe if AUD News on Monday Night is negative, we might see
further Downside on this pair throughout the Week. 0.69600 might be the Ultimate Profit Target for the
week, but it's best to take Profit around 88.6% Fib Level first and wait for AUD News Release at 8:30pm
that night.



Note: Best case Scenario is: AUD is Weak and CHF is STRONG after 2:15am CST ( London Session )

CAD/CHF Insight:

As you can see there's a Major Bearish Gartley on this pair, and obviously this thing is BEARISH...This
is what I called a "Perfect Trade Setup"- A Perfect Trade Setup is when you identify an Harmonic Pattern
that matches with the Overall Market Trend....

It's not easy to find those trades on a daily basis, but when you do, you add as much positions as you can
until it reverses... Right now, this pair already moved 100 pips , and there's not a safe place to put a
Stop-Loss at this point.... 23.6% Fib ( 0.75745) is the safest place, but I do not know if Price is going to
re-test that level again...Let's hope it does....

The idea is, you know that this pair is BEARISH, but you just need to minimize your RISK by finding a nice
Entry Level....


Note: Best Case Scenario is : CAD is Weak / and CHF is Strong after 2:15am CST

USD/CHF Insight:

I am Still BEARISH on this Pair, but I am not so sure if Market Correlation is going to work
on my favor this time since I am also BEARISH on EUR/USD....This is going to be interesting to
see what the Market does over the week.....

Now, I can think of 3 scenarios:

#1.- If USD decides to be Weak, and CHF decides to be STRONG, it's a guarantee that this Pair is going Lower,
but I do not know how far down, simply because my TP is at 0.90765 (that's a 2 weeks worth of Movement)

#2. - If USD is Strong and CHF is Strong after 2:15amCST, I expect some Sideways movement or indecision.

#3.- If EUR/USD has some negative reactions from Draghi statement, I would expect USD/CHF to go Long, and
use that Bullish Patterns (Bullish Gartley on H4TF) as an excuse to determine its Profit Target to the Upside.....

Hourly Time-Frame


4-Hourly TimeFrame

Stay Tuned......

I will post more charts work in the morning...Feel free to do your own analysis on:

AUD/CAD - AUD/USD - USD/CAD - USD/JPY, and GBP/USD


Very IMPORTANT:

FX Supreme Meter Indicator is a great TOOL to have, it helps you to avoid Consolidation in this Market, and
the last thing you want to do is to get attached to a specific pair and later finding out that this pair was the
bad combination for the day where Weak vs. Weak and Strong vs. Strong.

UPDATE at 6:06PM (Central Time)


Last UPDATE at 6:10pm (Central Time)

Hi Jay,

I will post my charts from time to time...the Supreme currency meter does tell the weakness and strength of currencies...the problem is how to use it to your advantage...it keeps fluctuating and at times the weakest currency gains strength in a jiffy..also i totally agree with you regarding the correlations of pairs..have to keep an eye on it for sure...lots to do before we pull the trigger..lol

Regards
Dennis

hi Jay,

I am looking for some sort of bearish price action on the GBPCAD pair once it reaches the 1.92 zone...it looks a like a pretty decent resistance zone with the round number of 1.92. I feel that price will come very close to 1.92 or even break it...there could be institutional sell orders here. Also other GBP pairs are weakening as well..sign of things to come...who knows...

Regards
Dennis

The fluctuation can be frustrating sometimes, but it simply shows us how disorganized most traders can be....While we all have the same charts, but we see different stories....The best way to take advantage of this Indicator is to trade it around News Events, meaning observe the Currencies 15-30mns before News, and 5-15mns after News, and you will see a huge difference....Less Fluctuation, and a better view on Market Direction.

Most of the time, the Weakness Currency tends to stay weak for the Entire Trading Day....

And, the second way to take advantage of this indicator is to create a combination between 1 and 8 / 1 and 7 or 2 and 8 / 2 and 7

1= Strongest
2= Second Strongest

7=Second Weakest
8= The Weakest

So, you just combination them like:
AUD(1)/CHF(8) ---EUR(2) /CHF(8)
AUD(1)/JPY(7) ----EUR(2)/JPY(7)

You can easily make some pips, but not 100s unless there's news going on that day and pick them at the right time.

It would be nice to go SHORT right now, but the safest place to put your stop-Loss is around 300+pips.
This is definitely a No-No for me. LOL!!!

I might need to go Lower and see what's up....As you can see there's a beautiful Bearish Butterfly on
the Daily Chart, we just need to wait for some Rejections around 1.92ish like you said, and on top of that
GBP Weakness has to be in Harmony with some Major Negative News...

Btw, I have noticed a Massive Bearish Gartley on GBP/USD, H4TF...If it starts moving to the Downside, all
GBP pairs will follow...Let's hope for the best Dennis!