Hedge Fund Styles Trading - Long and Short Term Setups

Hello Gangs,

The title might be a bit over the top, but there's a good REASON for it...Like most of us in this Forum,
I am very certain that we do have Small Trading Accounts, and would like to GROW that Account over time,
and have less pressure to trade this Market in a daily basis....

So, having a mindset of a Hedge Fund Manager gives you the ability to trade the Market with calmness and
have no worries about trading to pay your monthly bills or take your friends out to dinner.

With this concept and the way I approach the Market, you will have this clarity in your mind while you are
watching over my shoulder and truly understand what kind of work you have to PUT IN, in order to get the
kind of results you deserve.....

Keep in mind, it doesn't matter if you make 200 to 1,000 pips a month, as long as you don't have the kind of
confidence in your trading or system, you will always risk 1% or 2%, and can't wait to jump on the next
opportunity whereas with this method, you can ride the Trend from the beginning to the End, and still
adding new positions in the process....

I do not want you to get too excited, but this is a very beautiful method....And, I really like the Idea of placing
a few trades on Monday, and closed them out on Friday or a week or 2 later....Meaning, you can walk away from
your computer for days, and still closed out in Profits....

This might be hard to believe in the Beginning, but you will have to get used to it, because if you are
going to GROW your Account over time, you can't risk to give too much commissions to your Broker instead get
interests from them....

I usually don't trade on Sunday Night, but sometimes whenever I see a great Setup, I will place some trades
and close them out on Monday, because I feel more comfortable analysing Data from early Monday to get
ready for the entire week...Since I am at it now, I will have a Watchlist for Sunday Night....And hopefully
providing some daily updates and setups throughout the week....

Here are some of the News Impact for Sunday, June 7th 2015

ALL DAY ---------AUD---------Bank Holiday

6:50 pm CST-------JPY --------Current Account and Final GDP

Tentative---------CNY---------Trade Balance

Potential Watchlist for that Day: AUD/USD - AUD/JPY - USD/JPY - EUR/USD - GBP/JPY - EUR/JPY

AUD/USD Insight:

AUD/USD has been very BEARISH for quite some time, but not too long ago, we had a Surprise Bullish
Move for about 200+pips, and right now Price Action is at that Level again around 0.75974ish...I could
not remember the reason for the move, but I do know Aussie has a tendency to move whenever we
have Chinese Data....I am not going to elaborate on that, but I just wanted to be a bit more Technical....

Despite Price Action is near a Major Support Level, I do think that AUD/USD is still Super Bearish... What
I am looking for is for Price Action to go UP for a little Bit around 78.6% -88.6% Level, and gives me some
Bearish Evidence to go SHORT....Since there is not going to be too much data till London Session, I might
have to Observe this Pair and take action on Monday morning....

There's a potential to make close to 150+ pips to the Downside, but I would prefer a Good Entry with
peace in Mind.

AUD/JPY Insight:

AUD/JPY .- This pair is a bit tricky to trade, because AUD/JPY has a tendency to get juice from USD/JPY when
there's no News Events on AUD or CNY (Chinese Data)...

I am expecting that ABCD Pattern to be completed at around 88.6% Level, and bounce to the Upside, because
AUD/JPY has been following AUD Data for the past few days, and it's time for AUD/JPY to get the Juice from JPY
weaknesses.....Anyway, I am more Bearish on that pair at the end of the day.

USD/JPY Insight:

There won't be too much of USD data this week, but it looks like Smart Traders are going to use
Non-Farm Payroll data (June 5th, 2015) as an excuse to be more Bullish on this Pair, because
132.100ish is the next Target Level or you can call it that Next "SweetSpot"...

That's about 700+pips away.....I would prefer some discount before I can place some Bullish Positions.
As you can see there's a massive Bearish Divergence at the current Price Level, and it simply means
USD/JPY needs to pullback to the downside for a bit, before it can resume its bullishness.....

EUR/USD Insight:

EUR/USD is a very interesting pair to trade, but I can barely get great Setup unless I place pending
orders for overnight opportunities....If I can remember 4-5 days ago on that EURUSD thread, I talked about
the potential Bearish Cypher Pattern Here, and didn't know what Draghi was going to say, and I had
to close my Long trade not knowing that Bearish Pattern was going to complete.... There was so much Bearish
pressure, Price didn't even test 1.14000 but was very close.

Anyway, Since Market Sentiment has changed to the Downside, I am expecting some Bearish Momentum comes
this week (June 7th - June 12th)...I do not get attached to any pairs, but I love trading Structure and Harmonic
Patterns.


By the way, I would like to point that out on the Daily Chart...If EUR/USD maintains its Bearishness throughout
the week....I am seeing an Emerging Bullish Gartley on D1.

GBP/JPY Insight:

I get beat up all the Time on this Pair because of large spreads, but I am very surprised that
this Pair ignored GBP recent Weakness few weeks after UK Parliament Election, and took off to the
upside regardless by taking advantage of USD/JPY momentum.....

Anyway, I don't analyse this pair too much, I might have to provide some updates on it throughout
the week... For now, I would say if Bullish Momentum stays, GBP/JPY might test 200ish level by the
end of this year...That's about 1,000+pips ladies and gentlemen....

This is HUGE, and I do not plan to hold any positions for that long....On the other hand, if GBP/JPY
decides to follow GBP Weakness, I will expect a Push to the Downside at around 186.500ish before
going back to the Upside.

EUR/JPY Insight:

EUR/JPY Daily Chart has an interesting story line, and I would be very naive to predict something out
of it without proper data from EUR and USD....Since this is a Long term setup, there's plenty of time to
see if that Bearish Pattern is going to complete at some point....

X-A Leg (Impulse Leg) has been established and A-B Leg has been reached at 140.700......Now, it's up to
the Market to see what I see...Two things are going to happen here:

-If Bullish Momentum stays comes next week, I do expect a small Bearish pullback at around 50% level or 137.900

- Any further move to the Downside at 132 Level would definitely justify a Potential Bearish Pattern where Price
Action would shoot all the way up to 145ish.

How to Develop a DAILY ROUTINE and Stay FOCUS:

If you are a Day-Trader and a Swing Trader like myself, you know very well how hard it is
to keep up with the influx of information and Opportunities on a daily basis....The Market has a
tendency to create massive Volatility during the first 2 hours of every Session.... And most of the
time, when you decide to trade after, you can barely see some movement and you end up holding
your positions for hours upon hours.....

Well, I think that I have found a Solution for that, and it's not going to be perfect. But, as long as there's
volatility in the Market, you will know where to look for and take Advantage of it....

Depending on the day, you might end up making close to 100-200+pips, but I would encourage you to
target 50-60+pips to be safe....

Note: If you are going to Swing Trade that day, you might need to close your positions the next day.

Here's the PROCESS, I go to on a Daily Basis:

Step#1: Go to your FF Calendar website, and Select the Current date like this:


On that Daily Calendar, you will see all the Impact News Event, and Less Impact News.
For Example, if you feel like Trading CAD News - Building Permits, you can trade it.

But, you have to wait after the News Release to see the Strength or the Weakness of that pair
before you can place any Trade....

Step#2: Create a Daily Watchlist.
As a Trader, it's very important to create a Daily Watchlist so that you can avoid consolidation
in the Market...You are not obligated to trade EURUSD, USD/JPY or GBP/USD all the time...Those
pairs do have quiet Day sometimes, and you need volatility to make Money... Do not force yourself
into a Trade knowing that there's no movement whatsoever... This template is going to help you
alot.


So, you Open that Template, and it gives you a list of 8 pairs for M15TF and 8 pairs for M30TF.

Step#3: Determine the Relative Strength and Weakness of all Pairs.


The Market is not going to move greatly if you choose to trade a Currency Pair like this, where
both pairs are Strong or Weak.
Meaning EUR/USD (EUR Weak/ USD Weak) or GBP/NZD (GBP Strong/ NZD Strong )

Note: As a Smart Trader you always need to SELL Weaknesses and BUY Strength. Something
like this where: GBP/AUD (GBP Weak / AUD Strong ) - Sell Trade Only

EUR/USD ( EUR Strong/ USD Weak ) - Long Trade Only

Step#4: Display all the Top8 Pairs you have Selected, and use that Template.... You can Trade
the London Session, and the U.S Session as well, but Tokyo is a bit slow unless you know which Pairs
that are going to move. (maybe all the AUD Combinations )

I was trying to upload the files, but they are too much, and I can't just upload the Folders...So,
I am going to Upload the Files for Step #2 and Step#3, and if you guys need the Actual System
for my Method (Step#4), Feel free to send me an Email, and I will send them through Emails.....

It's best to manage them like this, and on top of that a Friend is working on an EA for me
based on that System.. This is going to be Incredible and Stress-Free Trading!

I have managed to collect some of the best indicators, and create a System that matches
my own Trading Style, and I do believe that Anybody can use that System to fit their personality
into it.
Scan the Market and Create your Daily Watchlist:





Determine the Relative Strength and Weakness for all Pairs during each Session:

Upcoming Daily Market Calendar

Wednesday, June 10th, 2015


Impact News Events: (Time is Central Time )

3:30am...............GBP.................U.K Manufacturing Production

9:00am..............GBP..................NIESR GDP Estimate

9:30am .............USD.................Crude Oil Inventories

3:00pm..............GBP.................BOE Gov. Carney Speaks

4:00pm.............NZD.................Official Cash Rate
..................................................RBNZ Rate Statement
..................................................RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
4:05pm.............NZD................RBNZ Press Conference

6:50pm.............JPY...................BSI Manufacturing Index

8:00pm.............AUD..................MI Inflation Expectations

8:30pm.............AUD..................Employment change
...................................................Unemployment Rate


Potential Watchlist for Wednesday: GBP/USD - USD/JPY - AUD/USD - GBP/AUD

If you prefer to trade the News that day, I highly recommend that you pick 1 or 2 of those Pairs:

1.- NZD/USD - NZD/CAD - NZD/JPY - NZD/CHF = All go in the same Direction

2.- AUD/NZD - EUR/NZD - GBP/NZD = All go in the Same Direction

Official Cash Rate reduced to 3.25 Percent:
The Reserve Bank today reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent.
Growth in the global economy remains moderate. Data on economic activity in the US, China and
Australia has been mixed, although there has been some improvement in the euro area and Japan.

Volatility in financial markets has increased. The New Zealand economy is growing at an annual rate
around three percent, supported by low interest rates, high net migration and construction activity,
and the decline in fuel prices. However, the fall in export commodity prices that began in mid-2014
is proving more pronounced.

That's just a small copy of the Article...

I went Short 2 Hours before the News, and I had to rely on Market Structure since NZD/USD has been
Bullish prior to Today.... Fastest +140 pips Record!

Take a Look at the Relative Strength Meter..... Despite the cut, it looks like
NZD is getting Stronger...I do not know for How long it's going to stay that way...

So, if you are late to the Party, just wait for the Noise to fade away, then trade this Pair accordingly.
Right now, I am looking at the M1 TF for pure Price Action.

GBP ----UK Manufacturing Production Today had a mixed data....

Bloomberg has it for +0.4% and ForexFactory has it for -0.4%... Well, I do not really
care about the Data, but I am more focused on the reactions of Traders through the Chart
itself....

I have been wanted to see GBP/USD goes DOWN to complete my Massive Bullish Cypher at
around 1.4800ish, and it looks like today is our Lucky day, because There's a Massive Bearish
Gartley on Hourly Chart, that same pattern shows on H4 and Daily Chart....Meaning if USD data
like Core Retail Sales / Retail Sales turn out to be positive, we might see a sharp decline on GBP/USD.

4 Hourly Chart:


Hourly Chart:

Upcoming News Event Tonight (Central Time ):

8:00pm........AUD...........MI Inflation Expectations

8:30pm........AUD..........Employment Change

....................AUD..........Unemployment Rate

This is going to be a late news for me, and I am thinking about placing a Pending
Order to go SHORT:

Entry Point @ 0.77690 / Stop-Loss: 0.77930 / Profit Target : 0.76370
I am risking about -26 pips, and Reward is about +130 pips....

Here's why I decided to go Short before the News Release:


NOTE: Before you place any Trades, make sure you look at the Supreme Meter Indi or Step#3...
Your expectation should be like this:

- If I want to go Short AUD needs to be Weak / USD needs to be Strong. = Short Trade Only

- If I want to go Long AUD needs to be Strong / USD needs to be Weak. = Long Trade Only

hi octavejay509

I was having a look at ur relative strength meter and I kind of understand the strength and weakness shown on the currency meter but wanted to know how to use the values on the strength of the pairs shown...example NZDJPY has a value of 95.3. what time frame has that value been calculated from and in this case does it mean that NZDJPY is a good buy since the value is in high 90s..

Please do advice.

Regards

Dennis

Hi Dennis,

In all honesty, anything above 85-90s is always a Good Buy, but before you pull the Trigger; you need to take
Market Structure in Consideration. Because, if Price Action is near a Major Resistance Level, you will end up
risking too much on a Long Trade....Instead you wait for a small Pullback around certain Fibs Levels or Price
Patterns to minimize your risk aversion.....[It goes the same way for a Short Trade. ]

What you need to understand as a trader is Higher Time-Frame tends to provide great Market Structure, and
the value of that pair has nothing to do with a specific Time-Frame, it's more related or calculated based on Order Flows
and Volumes.....

Keep in mind, Market Sentiment can change at any given moment during trading hours. So, if you found a good
Trade Setup, just focus on a 1:2 Risk:Reward Ratio, instead of looking for a Home RUN!

Hope my answers help you a bit......

Jay

Hi Jay

Thanks for the reply...yes I trade mostly Daily Time Frames to stay away from the noise but at times I do look at the news for those massive movements...I am having a look at the AUSUSD with the Australian news releasing soon..i also feel that we will see a downward movement...expecting the OZ to weaken just like the NZ earlier in the day...lets see how it goes.

Regards

Dennis

Upcoming Daily Market Calendar:

Thursday, June 11th, 2015


Potential Watchlists:

AUD/USD - USD/CAD - USD/JPY - NZD/USD

EUR/USD - EUR/GBP - GBP/USD - AUD/CAD

Might Provide Chart Work Tomorrow...I am a bit Tired...

Note: I am already Short on USD/CAD (based on a 4-Hour Structure, but got in too early...If I get stopped out, will get in again)

I am already short GBP/USD; NZD/USD (again for a Bearish Continuation till Friday ); and Short AUD/USD ( Spread got me on the first Position)