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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #741
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:52am Jun 12, 2015 7:52am
Quoting ephisi
Based on TZs and in the absence of any diverting news. Eurusd should clear 1.1277 before any further bear moves. I pray it fails this time because i am short from 1.1334
Yes k! Stops also above 1.1300. eurusd diverted due to series of breaking news. This is the reason why Tzs cant be relied on as a system. In the absence of news they work, with news they fail. Was short but based on Tz i wouldnt panic if we saw a spike up above 1.1277 or 1.1300. And i didnt take a long trade based on my tz observations. This is why we say you need to have some other system while tz is used as a supporting tool. Tz alone will always fail you.
  • #742
  • Jun 12, 2015 8:57am Jun 12, 2015 8:57am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Yes k! Stops also above 1.1300. eurusd diverted due to series of breaking news. This is the reason why Tzs cant be relied on as a system. In the absence of news they work, with news they fail. Was short but based on Tz i wouldnt panic if we saw a spike up above 1.1277 or 1.1300. And i didnt take a long trade based on my tz observations. This is why we say you need to have some other system while tz is used as a supporting tool. Tz alone will always fail you.
Agreed. There are fundamental reasons for things happening that are not easily described by any technical indicator / sentiment or even a map of orders.
My morning's EU long has hit stop loss, so I guess I am done for the week.

Cheers,
k
  • #743
  • Jun 12, 2015 9:38am Jun 12, 2015 9:38am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Agreed. There are fundamental reasons for things happening that are not easily described by any technical indicator / sentiment or even a map of orders. My morning's EU long has hit stop loss, so I guess I am done for the week. Cheers, k
Even though the scenario might be happening now...
k
  • #744
  • Jun 12, 2015 9:46am Jun 12, 2015 9:46am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Even though the scenario might be happening now... k
Lol, yea. Thats why you find most of the tz guys trading this without stoploss. Too risky though. Sometimes it dosnt come back till days or weeks after
  • #745
  • Jun 12, 2015 9:51am Jun 12, 2015 9:51am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Lol, yea. Thats why you find most of the tz guys trading this without stoploss. Too risky though. Sometimes it dosnt come back till days or weeks after
We should clear at least 1.1266
  • #746
  • Edited 10:35am Jun 12, 2015 9:53am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} We should clear at least 1.1266
DONE. Could head back down anywhere above 1.1266. Usdjpy also needs to clear 124.16 today or 123.80 monday
  • #747
  • Jun 12, 2015 11:45am Jun 12, 2015 11:45am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} DONE. Could head back down anywhere above 1.1266. Usdjpy also needs to clear 124.16 today or 123.80 monday
Agreed. Could not stop myself from selling e/u now, with a stop at 1.33. I think they activated the buy stops at 1.3, now they could drive it down directly, or drive it down 50 pips, revisit 1.3 and then down to the ground...

k
  • #748
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:05pm Jun 12, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} We should clear at least 1.1266
Great .... will it clear 1.1243 ?
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #749
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:10pm Jun 12, 2015 12:10pm
Quoting pedma
{quote} Great .... will it clear 1.1243 ?
In my opinion yes, it would go down 50 pips or so (I can of course be wrong). Look at the scenario from June 5, European morning. I think the situation is very similar imho to now.
k
  • #750
  • Edited Jun 13, 2015 10:23am Jun 12, 2015 12:24pm | Edited Jun 13, 2015 10:23am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} In my opinion yes, it would go down 50 pips or so (I can of course be wrong). Look at the scenario from June 5, European morning. I think the situation is very similar imho to now. k
Thanks K. So, it will touch 1.1234 on Monday ...
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #751
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:29pm Jun 12, 2015 12:29pm
Today convincingly broke the US Open price on Tuesday that helped establish this slightly upward sideways movement for the week.
The TUE US Open price was 11239. Daily Open for the 9th and 10th June has been the "pivot" point for the week, at 272 to 279 hence validating the 277 price.

ZZBB on the 1H suggests that a Top needs to be formed before any downward thrust.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1H.JPG Size: 200 KB


Thee 4H seems to validate that.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H.JPG Size: 203 KB


I'm not going to predict that price, no point really. There have been other more profitable markets to trade this week (eg. AUDNZD, GBPAUD)

Have a great weekend
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #752
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:30pm Jun 12, 2015 12:30pm
Quoting pedma
{quote} Thanks K. So, it will touch 1.1234 , and may be 1.1214 / 1.1176 too on Monday ...
That is the scenario I am trading. Oanda's sentiment says that a lot of retail people are shorting now, that usually means that the price is likely to bounce back from 1.122x to 1.3, and only then go down below 1.12. Not sure when it will happen though - today, or Monday.
Anyway, I lost some ice cream money this morning, if this realizes, I may have still a nice ice cream for the weekend.
Cheers, buddy.
k
  • #753
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:41pm Jun 12, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting pedma
{quote} Great .... will it clear 1.1243 ?
I meant the spike up wil clear 1.1266. I dont have a tz short signal yet, will post when i do. Eurusd could go either way from here. Similarity according to my understanding was restored.
But based on some other system longterm im short expecting to clear 1.08 previous lows. On my way home . When i get to my pc i will open a demo and trade explorer to test this calls strictly based on tz alone.
  • #754
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:44pm Jun 12, 2015 12:44pm
Quoting vlady1974
Today convincingly broke the US Open price on Tuesday that helped establish this slightly upward sideways movement for the week. The TUE US Open price was 11239. Daily Open for the 9th and 10th June has been the "pivot" point for the week, at 272 to 279 hence validating the 277 price. ZZBB on the 1H suggests that a Top needs to be formed before any downward thrust. {image} Thee 4H seems to validate that. {image} I'm not going to predict that price, no point really. There have been other more profitable markets to trade this week (eg. AUDNZD, GBPAUD)...
Just further thoughts on this for the EURUSD:

The price high of 11380.2 was on the 4th June on London open 4H timeframe.
This was breached 25 bars (25x4hrs) later, with a new top at 11386.4 on the 10th June.
TZ wise, we shouldn't expect another return to this price for another 24 bars on the other side of the 10th June.

Also on the 4H, the Daily Opens I mentioned previously fall in line with the Bollinger Band Mid and a failure to close above this usually characterises a sharp or fast fall.
In addition, with regards to the ZigZag Bollinger Band (ZZBB) method, the tops and bottoms that have occurred during this ranging market have not closed outside of the BB. This in the past has meant "unresolved" prices and therefore we can expect to see prices go back to them in the future. My guess is that we are more likely to go to 10900 rather than see 11380 as mentioned above.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H.JPG Size: 230 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #755
  • Edited 1:00pm Jun 12, 2015 12:47pm | Edited 1:00pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} That is the scenario I am trading. Oanda's sentiment says that a lot of retail people are shorting now, that usually means that the price is likely to bounce back from 1.122x to 1.3, and only then go down below 1.12. Not sure when it will happen though - today, or Monday. Anyway, I lost some ice cream money this morning, if this realizes, I may have still a nice ice cream for the weekend. Cheers, buddy. k
@Vlady,
Thanks for your information

@K,
Yes ... that makes sense, up and down ... and may you get a bucket of ice cream

@ephisi,
Thanks mate. Can not wait to see your explorer ...

===
Have a nice week end every body. Home works are waiting for me ....
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #756
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:53pm Jun 12, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting vlady1974
Today convincingly broke the US Open price on Tuesday that helped establish this slightly upward sideways movement for the week. The TUE US Open price was 11239. Daily Open for the 9th and 10th June has been the "pivot" point for the week, at 272 to 279 hence validating the 277 price. ZZBB on the 1H suggests that a Top needs to be formed before any downward thrust. {image} Thee 4H seems to validate that. {image} I'm not going to predict that price, no point really. There have been other more profitable markets to trade this week (eg. AUDNZD,...
The zzbb system i have notices ties in very well with the TZs.
  • #757
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:58pm Jun 12, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} The zzbb system i have notices ties in very well with the TZs.
It's because the Similarity concept was/is related to the Transient/Recurrence concept.

However, let me clarify.... my ZZBB system was an expansion of the original Similarity concept of closes outside Bollinger which I later part systemised so that it would provide both alert and "trigger". ZZBB works well on its own in Trending markets, not in Sidways.... like many indicators.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #758
  • Jun 12, 2015 1:00pm Jun 12, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Just further thoughts on this for the EURUSD: The price high of 11380.2 was on the 4th June on London open 4H timeframe. This was breached 25 bars (25x4hrs) later, with a new top at 11386.4 on the 10th June. TZ wise, we shouldn't expect another return to this price for another 24 bars on the other side of the 10th June. Also on the 4H, the Daily Opens I mentioned previously fall in line with the Bollinger Band Mid and a failure to close above this usually characterises a sharp or fast fall. In addition, with regards to the ZigZag Bollinger...
Great analysis vlad. 1.1380 clearance was a best opportunity to exit longs and also best above 1.1380 was shorting zone based on my analysis. I got in late though at 1.1334 live and 1.1314 demo . Expecting 1.08 low to be cleared. Great confidence and patience is needed to hold the trade to clear 1.08 lows. I believe bad news from greece will make that happen and maybe the next usd push up
  • #759
  • Jun 12, 2015 1:02pm Jun 12, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} It's because the Similarity concept was/is related to the Transient/Recurrence concept. However, let me clarify.... my ZZBB system was an expansion of the original Similarity concept of closes outside Bollinger which I later part systemised so that it would provide both alert and "trigger". ZZBB works well on its own in Trending markets, not in Sidways.... like many indicators.
Ok vlad, will check it out sometime
  • #760
  • Jun 12, 2015 11:26pm Jun 12, 2015 11:26pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} It's because the Similarity concept was/is related to the Transient/Recurrence concept. However, let me clarify.... my ZZBB system was an expansion of the original Similarity concept of closes outside Bollinger which I later part systemised so that it would provide both alert and "trigger". ZZBB works well on its own in Trending markets, not in Sidways.... like many indicators.
ZzBb works works well in trending markets, this is interesting. So, it is not only trading pullback COBB ... nice. Could you please explain more?
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
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