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  • #90,701
  • Edited 10:55pm Jun 11, 2015 9:08pm | Edited 10:55pm
Mon and Tues have some AUS speeches before Tues NZ GDT price index.
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  • #90,702
  • Jun 12, 2015 4:01am Jun 12, 2015 4:01am
Quoting dab
{quote} 70 pip spike not enough for you? Maybe give it at least an hour or two before preempting further direction.
Would love to say "I told you so" but I wouldn't.

Merely want to explain that AU has a lot of chance to create new high, following good numbers and weakning of USD for the passed 30hours. Unfortunately, it didn't. Probably more south movement to go.
  • #90,703
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:34am Jun 12, 2015 7:34am
Quoting FxLapozi
{quote} Would love to say "I told you so" but I wouldn't. Merely want to explain that AU has a lot of chance to create new high, following good numbers and weakning of USD for the passed 30hours. Unfortunately, it didn't. Probably more south movement to go.
You could be right but to me it looks like there have been opportunities for it to go further south (eg strong US data yesterday) that also haven't followed through. Makes me think that this week is limited range with the FOMC fireworks to come next week when price is more likely to break range up or down or both in relatively quick succession.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #90,704
  • Jun 12, 2015 5:30pm Jun 12, 2015 5:30pm
Quoting Fx_Anil
{quote} IMHO, it seems to be a strong support.
So because 76 is strong support, you think that price is going to re test it ?

Is that it, your only reason ?
  • #90,705
  • Jun 12, 2015 6:09pm Jun 12, 2015 6:09pm
For those people who are making comments regarding going short on the AUD/USD, where exactly is your exit price ? How much room do you really think there is to make money from below 76 ? Going short on the AUD/USD in my view is high risk, because the exit price would be very difficult to indicate because there is little room for profit.

The AUD/USD is a buy, it is a buy because the technicals are very strong in favour of the value rising as well as corporate sentiment that the dollar is too strong.

We have seen a daily head and shoulders formation complete at 76. The weekly chart is in the process or some would say has even completed, a double bottom, again on the 76 level. These two formations are 'reversal' patterns. Take note of them. Not only have those formations cemented 76 as strong support, but please take note of where 76 exists within the bigger picture.

The bigger picture is the weekly timeframe taking us back to the two lows in April and September 2001 and then the lows in October 2008 and Feb 2009.

A trend line from 2001 to 2008 / 2009 leads us to guess where ? Yes the 76 level of 2015.

We have been slowly rising since the 1st June and 7700 is now the new support level, see how price has now moved away from the completed formations above.

76 is what price deems to be low enough for this currency pair. I have said before it would require something catastrophic to push price down through all that firm support and below 76 and whilst nobody knows where price could go, i would find it incredible for this pair to drop below 76 and hold below that figure.

For those that have said price is 'likely' to got to 76 again, we are now 134 pips away from what was 'likely'
  • #90,706
  • Jun 13, 2015 8:03pm Jun 13, 2015 8:03pm
Quoting mrfigure
For those people who are making comments regarding going short on the AUD/USD, where exactly is your exit price ? How much room do you really think there is to make money from below 76 ? Going short on the AUD/USD in my view is high risk, because the exit price would be very difficult to indicate because there is little room for profit. The AUD/USD is a buy, it is a buy because the technicals are very strong in favour of the value rising as well as corporate sentiment that the dollar is too strong. We have seen a daily head and shoulders formation...
That's what I've been saying all along, buy AUD if it drops below 0.7700, buy it more if it drops below 0.7650 and if it gets to 0.7600 then go all in lol.
Only a major event will make the AUD drop below 0.7600 and hold.
  • #90,707
  • Jun 13, 2015 10:58pm Jun 13, 2015 10:58pm
aud/usd balance now ..no one now where price will go.... just see what happen tomorrow after news..
TAKE SOME PIPS GO RUN FOR PRAY
  • #90,708
  • Jun 14, 2015 11:28pm Jun 14, 2015 11:28pm
Quoting mrfigure
{quote} So because 76 is strong support, you think that price is going to re test it ? Is that it, your only reason ?
Yes, i still think it should come down to 0.7600
  • #90,709
  • Jun 14, 2015 11:44pm Jun 14, 2015 11:44pm
Quoting Fx_Anil
{quote} Yes, i still think it should come down to 0.7600
I would agree with you if aussie does a clean break of 7110. I have not seen that happen since past 4 hrs. everytime it goes there someone is buying. haven't seen a big defence of a level in long time for the aussie
  • #90,710
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:02am Jun 15, 2015 12:02am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I would agree with you if aussie does a clean break of 7110. I have not seen that happen since past 4 hrs. everytime it goes there someone is buying. haven't seen a big defence of a level in long time for the aussie
That would be me, I go ALL in lol.
  • #90,711
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:04am Jun 15, 2015 12:04am
Quoting Fx_Anil
{quote} Yes, i still think it should come down to 0.7600
That would be great so that I can buy it with at least 3 lots
  • #90,712
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:03am Jun 15, 2015 1:03am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I would agree with you if aussie does a clean break of 7110. I have not seen that happen since past 4 hrs. everytime it goes there someone is buying. haven't seen a big defence of a level in long time for the aussie
Seems that the market is still uncertain, waiting for the FOMC to back the greenback.
  • #90,713
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:03am Jun 15, 2015 1:03am
Quoting Vorex
{quote} That would be great so that I can buy it with at least 3 lots
Agree
  • #90,714
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:43am Jun 15, 2015 1:43am
A/U is in the wilderness IMO. Could go either way. I'm waiting for a break to show it's hand. I'm not guessing. 4 hour double bottom and monthly trend line.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #90,715
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:57am Jun 15, 2015 1:57am
Quoting bogus
A/U is in the wilderness IMO. Could go either way. I'm waiting for a break to show it's hand. I'm not guessing. 4 hour double bottom and monthly trend line.
The only way AUD goes is UP.
  • #90,716
  • Jun 15, 2015 3:07am Jun 15, 2015 3:07am
I'm not too experienced of a forex trader and even I'm looking to go long. Based on my analysis on monthly, weekly and daily charts, I see no potential for a short.. But then again, I'm just some guy who usually plays with stocks ..
  • #90,717
  • Jun 15, 2015 5:08am Jun 15, 2015 5:08am
  • #90,718
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:10am Jun 15, 2015 6:10am
Quoting Fx_Anil
{quote} Yes, i still think it should come down to 0.7600
Your saying the AUD/USD "It should come down" but you are giving no REASON as to WHY ?

The last time I asked you why it would go down you said because 76 seems strong support. That is not a valid reason why the AUD would fall again to the 76 level.
  • #90,719
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:20am Jun 15, 2015 6:20am
My view on au:

there is a resistance level around 0.7785, as long as price stay below such level, i consider it bearish.

On the downside i watch 0.7535 as a level to take profits.

We would need a push below 0.7700 in order to confirm the downmove idea, shorting now at current levels (small sells) is also acceptable for me.
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  • #90,720
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:37am Jun 15, 2015 6:37am
Quoting tunera
My view on au: there is a resistance level around 0.7785, as long as price stay below such level, i consider it bearish. On the downside i watch 0.7535 as a level to take profits. We would need a push below 0.7700 in order to confirm the downmove idea, shorting now at current levels (small sells) is also acceptable for me. {image}
If shorting is acceptable, please publish your current live open AUD/USD short trades.
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