ForexNews.com - Trading Ideas

Top trade idea for April 30st, 2015 – $GBPCAD

By Mircea Vasiu of capitalpropertiesfx.com

The gbpcad cross is forming a running triangle that is not completed yet. What is to mention here is the word “running”, which in this case means that the triangle needs to end above the highs in the previous x wave in red.
This in turn means that the d wave is not done yet and the e wave will correct only a little bit.
I am looking for the triangle to break higher of course and by the time the b-d trend line is broken the pattern to start to be a zigzag or a zigzag family pattern. Usually it is a double zigzag that follows such a triangle, anyways, a strong move to the upside to go minimum 1.9350
Taking into account the fact that this a cross, then the move can come either with a higher gbpusd or a higher usdcad. Taking into account the massive strengthening of the CAD currency lately, a correction there and a sideways gbpusd should fuel this rally.
Our recommendation is to stay long until 1.9350 comes and having a relative small stop, namely 1.8400.

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Top Trade Idea for May 1st, 2015 – EUR/USD

By Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets

Trading the People’s Currency
Never traded the Chinese yuan? The real possibility that USD/CNY will one day be as important as EUR/USD means it’s never too early to start.
At the moment, the Remnimbi (or “the people’s currency”) is a dirty float – the rate is allowed to fluctuate but ultimately is controlled by the central bank. The People’s Bank of China is moving towards a free float over the long term, and one step in this process is allowing outsiders to trade a version of the yuan that settles in Hong Kong, as direct settlement with mainland banks is also tightly controlled. So foreigners can’t trade CNY, but they can trade CNH.
The central authorities in China have committed to keep GDP growth around 7% – where we are now – using targeted measures. To slow the downtrend that bought GDP to this level at the most recent read, the PBoC has moved three times since last November to stimulate the economy. Allowing the currency to weaken appears to be in the PBoC toolkit.

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Top Trade Idea for May 4th, 2015 EUR/USD

By Michael Wright of Global FX Club

(Global FX Club) The EUR/USD rallied strongly last week opening at 1.0818 and closing the week at 1.1195 (over 350 pip gain). Though we expect additional gains in the medium term, we do not rule out a pullback in the euro against the U.S. dollar from around current levels as key technical resistance lies near on the 4 hour chart.
From a fundamental perspective, concerns still loom in Greece but in our opinion, will unlikely have a large impact on the EUR/USD this week. With a growing tolerance of Greek troubles mixed with a light European economic docket, technical developments will remain of focus.
Lets take a look at the 4 hour chart of EUR/USD below alongside the U.S. Dollar Index:

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Top Trade Idea for May 5th, 2015 – USD/JPY


By Gregor Horvat of EW-Forecast.com


Today’s Top Trade Idea: USDJPY
BY ew-forecast.com
USDJPY is trading sideways for almost past six months, so we assume that market is in a corrective phase. We see price trading in fourth wave which looks like a triangle pattern. That’s a continuation pattern, which could send price to new highs soon as we can count already all five needed subwaves within the pattern. Based on timing, we may see a new break higher coming soon. If we are correct, then 125 will be seen while 115.80 holds.

USDJPY Daily Elliott Wave Analysis
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Top Trade Idea for May 6, 2015 – USD/CHF

By Matthew Weller of forexnews.com

US dollar bulls took one on the chin this morning with the release of the April ADP Non-Farm employment report. While not as widely-watched as the Friday’s marquee NFP report from the BLS, ADP’s report can still provide an accurate view of the health of the labor market, and based on this morning’s release, it looks like the labor market may be coming down with a bug.

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Top trade idea for May 7th, 2015 – USD/JPY

By Mircea Vasiu of capitalpropertiesfx.com

There’s no better pair to trade ahead of the NFP release than the usdjpy as it is highly dependent on what is happening on the US jobs market.
From a technical perspective, still looking for all the waves that you see in the chart above to be corrective waves, and this is happening only in a terminal impulsive structure.

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Top Trade Idea for May 8th, 2015 – EUR/JPY

By Ric Spooner of CMC Markets


As the weekly chart below shows, the Euro has struggled to get past resistance around 136.00 against the Yen this week. This level has acted as significant support or resistance over the past 15 months.

http://www.forexnews.com/wp-content/...05/trade1-.jpg


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Top Trade Idea for May 13th, 2015 – AUD/JPY

By Fawad Razaqzada of FOREX.com

Top trade idea: AUD/JPY
The AUD/JPY currency pair is catching our attention today as it is peeking above a key resistance level at 95.95. As can be seen from the chart, this level had offered strong resistance at least three times in recent past, so the fact that it is now broken it could turn out to be a major technical development going forward. Of course, the AUD/JPY had already broken above its short-term bearish trend line and has been making a series of higher lows and a higher high too. So, the bearish trend had already ended prior to today’s break of the 95.95 level. Anyway, unless price comes back and closes below 95.95, the path of least resistance is now clearly to the upside.
Where the AUD/JPY’s rally may lose steam is difficult to say, but there is not much in the way of resistance now until around 97.40, a level which corresponds with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the last notable downswing we saw between March and April (i.e. the BC swing). Slightly above 97.40 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the last significant downswing from November at just shy of 97.70. Thereafter, 98.30 could be another technical level to watch for this was formerly a support-turned-resistance level.

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Top Trade Idea for May 15th, 2015-AUD/NZD

By Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets

The RBNZ Governor told Parliament this week that the bank will implement macro prudential tools to cool the Auckland housing market. This is seen by some as a sign that an interest rate cut is coming at its next meeting on June 11. However, the NZD has weakened since the RBNZ signalled a change of stance at its April meeting, and the first interest rate cut may already be priced

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Top Trade Idea for May 19th, 2015 – AUD/USD

By Gregor Horvat of EW-Forecast.com

Today’s Top Trade Idea – AUDUSD
AUDUSD has turned up in the past few months, but most likely only temporary as rally from the low is having an overlapping structure. We know that this is a characteristics of a contra-trend price action, so trend remains bearish for now within impulse that is in play since mid-2014. Ideally, market will turn lower in weeks ahead, down into wave (5. We could be considering different view and look on other side only if price would break above 0.8300.

AUDUSD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis
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Top Trade Idea for May 20th, 2015 – EUR/USD

By Matthew Weller of FOREX.com

On Monday, we highlighted a short-term bearish Butterfly pattern on EURUSD, noting that the pattern “suggest[ed] a move down toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire ABCD pattern at 1.1220, though the 38.2% retracement at 1.1310 could serve as a more achievable near-term target” (see “EURUSD: Greece’s Doomsday Clock is Nearing Midnight” for more). As it turns out, even the aggressive price target was too aggressive, as EURUSD as already fallen down to a low of 1.1060 so far today, helped along by yesterday’s news that the ECB was accelerating its QE purchases in May and June and a weak German ZEW report)
With the impact of that bearish pattern played out, EURUSD traders will now turn their eyes to today’s FOMC meeting minutes. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve made no changes to monetary policy at its April meeting, chalking the Q1 slowdown in economic activity to “transitory” factors. Traders will be looking for more details on what exactly the FOMC members meant by “transitory” – after all, employment has bounced back since the Q1 slowdown, but most other economic indicators have not seen a spring thaw yet. The initial reaction to April’s as-anticipated statement was subdued, and if there are no surprises in today’s minutes, another limited reaction is likely.

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Top Trade Idea for May 22nd, 2015 – AUD/NZD

By Ric Spooner of CMC Markets


At its last meeting the New Zealand Reserve Bank moved to an easing bias on interest rates. By contrast the Australia’s RBA toned its easing bias back to only a fraction short of neutral at its meeting.
The combination of these two moves delivered a strong rally for the Aussie against the Kiwi, allowing it to narrowly avert the national embarrassment of falling below parity for the first time.
However, this rally is showing signs of losing momentum. The 4 hour chart below looks to have completed an Elliot 5 wave advance. This sets up for a downward correction and on that basis my trade idea is to sell AUDNZD on a clear break below recent support looking for a decline to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last major rally around 1.0570

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Top Trade Idea for May 27th, 2015 – GBP/JPY


By Fawad Razaqzada of FOREX.com

The GBP/JPY last week peaked above the December high of 189.70, and for a time traded at its highest level since September 2008. But the pound sold off and subsequently the GBP/JPY fell back all the way to 187.85 before bouncing back. The cross has now recovered and it may go on to break out decisively at the second time of asking, particularly as the USD/JPY is also hitting fresh multi-year highs.
The GBP/JPY has already formed a major reversal pattern (a double bottom/false breakdown) in mid-April around 175.50, so a move to much higher levels may already be in motion. Indeed, if the GBP/JPY does break above 189.70/190.00 decisively and post a daily closing above this area, thenthis give way to further follow-up technical buying which could pave the way for further sharp gains in the near-term.As there is not much prior price reference points to watch on the GBP/JPY, this is where Fibonacci extension levels come handy. On the chart, below, we have plotted the extension levels of the past price swings from point A to B and from C to D. The first immediate Fibonacci target is at just shy of 191.30 which corresponds with the 161.8% extension of the CD swing. The more significant extension levels are further out at 193.55 and then 198.45 i.e. these are the 127.2 and 161.8 per cent extension levels of the AB swing. Fibonacci extension levels are used by some traders as objective profit targets. So, the rally could potentially fade around these levels as the longs take profit. In between the Fibonacci levels is the projected target of the double bottom pattern around 194.50. This is derived from adding the height of the pattern (i.e. 950 pips – the distance between point C and D) to the neckline at 185.00.

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Top trade idea for May 28th, 2015 – USD/CAD

By Mircea Vasiu of www.capitalpropertiesfx.com

This is a continuation of our previous usdcad analysis from last week as the take profit on the long trade we recommended was hit and then we said that we want to sell the 1.2520 level. Well, it may be that that area is not going to come so today’s trade idea is to sell at market (now it is 1.2478) with 1.2630 stop loss and 1.1930 take profit.

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Top Trade Idea for May 29th, 2015- AUD/JPY

By Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets

When two countries are competing for global demand via weakening currencies, who will be the first to blink? The country with the stronger economy……
AUD/JPY this week is a tale of two data sets.
In Japan, the jobless rate is lower than expected, inflation is higher (good news when deflation haunts the economy) and industrial production jumped 1% in April after a contraction in March. PM Abe’s Thee Arrows stimulus program is showing up in the numbers
In contrast, not only were Australia’s capital expenditure numbers worse than expected, capex intentions for 2015/16 fell. If the key question for the Australian economy revolves around the transition from a mining investment led economy to a broader base, the answer this week is “no”. And the daily chart may be rolling over:

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Top Trade Idea for June 2nd, 2015 AUD/USD

By Gregor Horvat of ew-forecast.com

A few weeks back AUDUSD has turned bullish for some time, but most likely only temporary as rally from the low was having an overlapping structure. We know that this is a characteristics of a contra-trend price action, so trend remains bearish for now within impulse that is in play since mid-2014.We see market moving sharply lower now after broken upward channel, so wave (5) is in play for a move down to 0.7100-0.7300 area.



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Top Trade Idea for June 3rd, 2015 – USD/CAD

By Matthew Weller of FOREX.com

Last week, we highlighted the near-term bullish channel on USDCAD and concluded that “….a near-term dip back to 1.2400 is certainly in play heading into the end of this week, but as long as buyers step in to defend that level and the bottom of the channel near 1.2350, the bulls will remain in control” (see “USDCAD Bulls in Control Above 1.2400” for more). After pulling back to that key level late last week, the North American pair rallied back to the mid-1.2500s on Monday, then reversed back down to 1.2400 yesterday. With the bullish channel conclusively broken, traders are wondering: “Is this the end of USDCAD’s near-term climb?”

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Top Trade Idea For June 5th, 2015 – USD/JPY

By Ric Spooner of CMC Markets

Charles Dow coined the term distribution patterns for broad sideways movements that sit at the top of up trends. They represent a loss of momentum and often indicate turning points.
One of the strategic principles I favour with technical trading is to look for opportunities to sell on breaks below distribution pattern support or, even better, to sell on a rejection of the pattern’s resistance. These are 2 places where it’s often possible to sell with relatively close stops compared to the profit potential
The 4 hour chart USDJPY chart looks as though it could be forming into a distribution pattern. But it’s early days and a bit a hard a label on the pattern at this stage. I have a hunch it could develop into a wedge type pattern. However, if it was to fall away from current levels it could also be a complex head and shoulder pattern.

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Top Trade Idea For June 10th, 2015 – CAD/JPY

By Fawad Razaqzada of FOREX.com

The Japanese yen has endured a wild ride today. Overnight the currency surged higher after the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it’s hard to see the currency’s real effective rate falling further. However the yen then sold off this morning on comments from the economy minister Akira Amari. According to Bloomberg, Mr Amari apparently said that Kuroda didn’t intend to move markets with his remarks, and that his comments might be distorted from what he meant.

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Top trade idea for June 11th, 2015 – USD/JPY

By Mircea Vasiu of capitalpropertiesfx.com

I really don’t like the usdjpy at these highs as from my point of view from the moment we broke down that rising channel it implies market is done with the previous wave and while it is still a corrective, my take is that it is a fifth wave extended impulsive move.
This means we should look for it to be completely reversed, so way lower values are expected.
That being said, I am favoring the downside with a stop loss above the previous highs, namely in the 125.80 area and targeting all the way the 120 level. While the risk-reward ratio is not that appealing, it is the only way I would trade the usdjpy for a while from now on.
From a fundamental point of view, the move lower was triggered by Kuroda in Japan talking down the pair, but I would insist it is more a technical move than a fundamental one in the sense that we have a channel that was broken, then retested, and strongly rejected afterwards.
If you look at any other currency pair back in time and try to find similar patterns, then one is never putting a fundamental news on such a pattern. Why start now?
Retail sales in the United States are going to be important but the main event it is still ahead of us with FOMC statement looming and Mrs. Yellen press conference being the most important one for the whole summer.

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