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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #701
  • Jun 5, 2015 6:59pm Jun 5, 2015 6:59pm
Quoting vlady1974
One of the best things any trader can do is to walk away from all the noise and step back into complete focus. Removing the noise allows space and clarity to creep back in. It's amazing how much noise (opinions, methods, charts, indicators, products) can skew opinions. But in the 6 months that I've not visited FF since the dramas of 2014, I can definitely say it's been bloody worth it. ----- It's weird coming back to this thread today... it's good to see some people still posting. There is merit to the original concepts and the multitude of work...




Looking forward to your drop ins!!!

Can you share a bit on how you now apply the TZs?
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #702
  • Jun 5, 2015 11:43pm Jun 5, 2015 11:43pm
Quoting vlady1974
One of the best things any trader can do is to walk away from all the noise and step back into complete focus. Removing the noise allows space and clarity to creep back in. It's amazing how much noise (opinions, methods, charts, indicators, products) can skew opinions. But in the 6 months that I've not visited FF since the dramas of 2014, I can definitely say it's been bloody worth it. ----- It's weird coming back to this thread today... it's good to see some people still posting. There is merit to the original concepts and the multitude of work...
hi Vlad, nice to see you again mate. Like Bill said, waiting for your ideas on TZ. Your post is very valueable like usual . From your last post, the wave level you said are based on TZ or other tools like cycle?
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #703
  • Jun 6, 2015 4:23am Jun 6, 2015 4:23am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} It's not based on any timeframe in my understanding It's based on the rare event of price printing once on the ticker without a recurrent print. You would need to zoom into the 1 min or tick charts to catch it. Robot needed to catch it. Now h-tansient is a way to add and study the probability of/statistic of a return to transient price found. So you can use the lower timeframe to find the transient price but the probability of return may increase as timeframe increases. So you (robot) spot the rare event Spread is surpassed in the deviation...
Thanks mate, this make sense. Transient states can be found more than one inside the transient bar / zone. Do i understand it right?
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #704
  • Jun 6, 2015 7:16am Jun 6, 2015 7:16am
Quoting pedma
{quote} Thanks mate, this make sense. Transient states can be found more than one inside the transient bar / zone. Do i understand it right?
yes potential transient prices can be more than 1 in a zone/bar

Finding the could be the easy part given an EA or indy provide this function. The present MT4 indicators for TZ don't focus on transient prices as I understand them.

They focus on transient bars which is not the idea in my opinion. They are great tools though.

The transient zone is so rare that it like an error that must be correted. A glitch in the matrix.

The present TZ tools help point out the possible location of theses glitches...but do they? I say no unless they are run on a tick data or such.

See the rare glitch (possible trasient price) data feed error
see the deviation (spread +?)
enter a trade/trades towards correcting the rare glitch

run a tick based TZ indy between seperate brokers and watch for the glitch in similarity/arbitrage of transient states (glitch on one but not the other)

This is how I understand the use of it.
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #705
  • Edited 8:59pm Jun 6, 2015 10:05am | Edited 8:59pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote} yes potential transient prices can be more than 1 in a zone/bar Finding the could be the easy part given an EA or indy provide this function. The present MT4 indicators for TZ don't focus on transient prices as I understand them. They focus on transient bars which is not the idea in my opinion. They are great tools though. The transient zone is so rare that it like an error that must be correted. A glitch in the matrix. The present TZ tools help point out the possible location of theses glitches...but do they? I say no unless they are run...
Thanks Bill. Do you know why i just get empty result ? Using tick 20 & 1 Minute data.
Edit: it is ok, if i change the price region ... thanks
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #706
  • Jun 7, 2015 5:16pm Jun 7, 2015 5:16pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Looking forward to your drop ins!!! Can you share a bit on how you now apply the TZs?
Hi BillYon,

There's been a great deal of study by many people about TZ, it's concepts and it's application. I think many seek out some form of automation or programming.
Personally, that's not my style nor philosophy. My background isn't in mathematics or statistics, so I don't go too far beyond my ability to be able to apply the concepts on a visual and logical basis.

Transient Zones (TZ) are not a focus, but one of many considerations I look at. Remember that in the history of TZ, it began with the concepts of Similarity and Dissimilarity. In that regard, it is the Zig Zag Bollinger Band method which I took from its initial ideas and expanded to my own. I still use it to this day. The fact that TZ formations appear in times of extreme price bars outside of the Bollinger Bands only adds to my confidence.

These days, I rely on another setup that I won't detail here. However, the TZ and their formations are extra confirmation layers and also helpful in setting price targets. NorthTrader has done exceptional work I see, and he's also laid out to some extent statistical evidence of FX Jay's method of opposite TZs.

Here is an example of one on my charts. I use the TZ Indicators that Kprsa helped develop and I use the indicators to visually mark the extreme points. I then look for breakout setups and that point towards a TZ. I won't explain further as there is a proprietary method (non-TZ related) that I've promised not to reveal. There are also some other indicators that are on the chart that I use.

Suffice to say, I've moved away from moves where I average 30-40 pip moves and now I can get 70-120 pip moves. I've mentioned in some of my blog posts that my work situation prevents me from devoting too much time to lower time frame review. So Hourly viewing on a 15M bar chart is suffice, but on a phone.... it doesn't alter my trade decisions nor do I do further analysis; I also have 4 trading time zones (morning, lunch, new-york open and evening).

Anyway, the idea is that the TZ can be viewed in terms of Support/Resistence in the similar way to viewing them as supply/demand zones - but this isn't entirely accurate... i'm speaking more from a trade point of view.... if a TZ (a) is established, then another TZ (b) is established, then over the timefactor (h) then it's likely that (a) will be revisited. There's been study into the dynamics nature of (h) which I won't rehash, and it's relevant.... but my other techniques don't require me to do this analysis anymore because the setup I use already incorporates the timeframe into account within its confirmation. Coincidence? Possibly... but so far, they're in alignment.

So... to bring it home, in the early posts of the basics, I remember talking about the TZ before/after forming a particular shape. On lower timeframes, this is still highly relevant and I can spot these now when tops/bottoms form; quite handy for scalping.... but again, horses for courses, they're not what I use for setups that get me 100+ pips. In essence, TZ are just a tool and I use it to enhance or complement my other tools.

Don't over complicate it. Consistency is key, not win/loss ratio.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1W.png Size: 356 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #707
  • Jun 7, 2015 5:19pm Jun 7, 2015 5:19pm
Quoting pedma
{quote} hi Vlad, nice to see you again mate. Like Bill said, waiting for your ideas on TZ. Your post is very valueable like usual . From your last post, the wave level you said are based on TZ or other tools like cycle?
Just a visual EW count. I'm not an EW specialist and I'm still learning this. However, it's been a bone of contention from EW speculators about when the Wave 4 was going to occur and where it will top out. There are those that look for 1.2, but I think 1.14 to 1.16 is just about right. I'm scaling in now, but 1.14 on the Weekly can easily extend to 1.17. The size of the retracement will only determine the longer term target of Wave 5.... but I believe this may go sub parity..... but, let's pause on that... first things first. I'm overall short.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #708
  • Jun 7, 2015 7:01pm Jun 7, 2015 7:01pm
Just been looking at the posts from this year. Great stuff to review on.
I think those that want strong rigour in their understanding should definitely do the statistical work like FX-Jay and NorthTrader.
Personally, I've not the time anymore. So I rely on other means/setups.

Reviewing the 2015 posts, the interesting ones I find are the idea of transience relating to wicks.... it's really down to price and not the bar.
Perhaps the word "Transient" is not the right word.... because the original meaning seems to be that "price will not be returned to".
The problem with this statement is the next phrase.... "price will not be returned to.... after h-bars".

But on a 15M bar, if a wick is formed, price may have moved up and down that wick 10 times before becoming transient. But how would you know that since you're only looking at a 15 minute marker? You can't tell until you get the next bar. So then, what is "transience"?


You could argue that an instruments all time High and Low are the 2 price points (within the bar timeframe you're looking at) that are the 3% non-recurring. Everything else is recurring. The lowest that you are willing to trade at will be the base of your acceptance of "transience" and this will be relative to everyone. Hence I believe that the probabilities are also relativistic.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #709
  • Jun 7, 2015 7:18pm Jun 7, 2015 7:18pm
Just to continue my train of thought before I go to bed....

Here's an example of how I apply TZ concepts in a simpler manner, without all the probability calculations etc.
As I mentioned in recent posts, I complement the analysis using other indicators or techniques.

For argument's sake, let's use EMA 18,50,100,200.

This is just ONE way to interpret and therefore put a trade plan together. The TZ by itself is meaningless unless you have a trading plan.
The trade plan in this instance is not even to target TZ1 but to move stops when TZ1 is reached. (BTW, my target projection system is proprietary, so I can't reveal that)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUSUSD-1W.png Size: 391 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #710
  • Jun 7, 2015 8:14pm Jun 7, 2015 8:14pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote} yes potential transient prices can be more than 1 in a zone/bar Finding the could be the easy part given an EA or indy provide this function. The present MT4 indicators for TZ don't focus on transient prices as I understand them. They focus on transient bars which is not the idea in my opinion. They are great tools though. The transient zone is so rare that it like an error that must be correted. A glitch in the matrix. The present TZ tools help point out the possible location of theses glitches...but do they? I say no unless they are run...
Hi Bill,
I have never tried TZ studies on the tick chart (as it is not readily available in MetaTrader) but would be very interested to hear the results.

Im not sure if there is a real advantage, but I suppose it all depends on what you are wanting/looking for.
The power of TZ's is they expire at a predetermined point in time. Whereas ticks dont come in an even flow, there will be periods of mass activity followed by quiet periods. The TZ's would print on the chart initially fine, but I am not sure of the extra benefit they would provide in real time.

Good to see some thinking outside of the square. Best of luck with your ideas, please keep us updated.
What's it all about? It's all about money.
  • #711
  • Jun 7, 2015 11:30pm Jun 7, 2015 11:30pm
Quoting vlady1974
Consistency is key, not win/loss ratio.
Welcome back Vlad I was worried you'd gone forever. It's great your trading's going well and you're able to bag the 70-120 pip moves consistently. Hard work pays off, eh?

Looking forward to your future posts.

Best wishes,
NT
You reap what you sow.
  • #712
  • Edited 2:14am Jun 8, 2015 1:56am | Edited 2:14am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Just a visual EW count. I'm not an EW specialist and I'm still learning this. However, it's been a bone of contention from EW speculators about when the Wave 4 was going to occur and where it will top out. There are those that look for 1.2, but I think 1.14 to 1.16 is just about right. I'm scaling in now, but 1.14 on the Weekly can easily extend to 1.17. The size of the retracement will only determine the longer term target of Wave 5.... but I believe this may go sub parity..... but, let's pause on that... first things first. I'm overall...
Thanks Vlad, now i remember this.

About your MA lines: looking at the picture you posted, using 18/50 is better than normally i used, EMA 20/50, thanks for this.

One question Vlad:
Looking at the code below at mod RS ,

Inserted Code
 for(i = limit; i > h_MOD_1stPTZ; i--)

so it means we can only test it realtime, waiting for PTZ to appear. We can not test it for historical data, is it right ?

Thanks in advance
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #713
  • Jun 8, 2015 2:02am Jun 8, 2015 2:02am
Quoting vlady1974
Just to continue my train of thought before I go to bed.... Here's an example of how I apply TZ concepts in a simpler manner, without all the probability calculations etc. As I mentioned in recent posts, I complement the analysis using other indicators or techniques. For argument's sake, let's use EMA 18,50,100,200. This is just ONE way to interpret and therefore put a trade plan together. The TZ by itself is meaningless unless you have a trading plan. The trade plan in this instance is not even to target TZ1 but to move stops when TZ1 is reached....
Vlady! You came back! Hey bro, if it were not for you, I would likely not have thrown myself into FF the way I did. Glad to see you back.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #714
  • Jun 8, 2015 2:20am Jun 8, 2015 2:20am
Quoting vlady1974
Just to continue my train of thought before I go to bed.... Here's an example of how I apply TZ concepts in a simpler manner, without all the probability calculations etc. As I mentioned in recent posts, I complement the analysis using other indicators or techniques. For argument's sake, let's use EMA 18,50,100,200. This is just ONE way to interpret and therefore put a trade plan together. The TZ by itself is meaningless unless you have a trading plan. The trade plan in this instance is not even to target TZ1 but to move stops when TZ1 is reached....

Welcome back Buddy...
  • #715
  • Jun 8, 2015 2:52am Jun 8, 2015 2:52am
Hey Jmn, TraderForLife, North and everyone else.
Yes, in a weird way it's good to be back.
Thanks for your kind words.

I hope I can get to contribute more frequently.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #716
  • Jun 8, 2015 2:55am Jun 8, 2015 2:55am
Quoting pedma
{quote} Thanks Vlad, now i remember this. About your MA lines: looking at the picture you posted, using 18/50 is better than normally i used, EMA 20/50, thanks for this. One question Vlad: Looking at the code below at mod RS , for(i = limit; i > h_MOD_1stPTZ; i--) so it means we can only test it realtime, waiting for PTZ to appear. We can not test it for historical data, is it right ? Thanks in advance
Hey Pedma, I'm not a coder so I don't know the implications on the array, but a PTZ is a zone to the right of the anchor bar before h has expired. Therefore, you CAN back test it.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #717
  • Jun 8, 2015 3:19am Jun 8, 2015 3:19am
This is excellent reading. Found it last night. Applied it this morning to UJ (long btw).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=533279

How related do you think this is to TZ?
How could Similarity/Dissimilarity be applied to it?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #718
  • Jun 8, 2015 4:10am Jun 8, 2015 4:10am
Quoting vlady1974
This is excellent reading. Found it last night. Applied it this morning to UJ (long btw). http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=533279 How related do you think this is to TZ? How could Similarity/Dissimilarity be applied to it?
I waited to see what would happen after London Open on EU (wasn't trying to catch a top). I've only entered a short now as price broke my Bollinger Band mid.
If you look at the top on 15M tf, 11179.1 on igindex, to me it means that 11179.2 through to 11180 are transient price zones for at least 78 x 15 min bars. At least that's the hypothesis in real time. The fact that price is now back to London open and traded below it... and for that matter below Asia open means........??
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #719
  • Jun 8, 2015 1:08pm Jun 8, 2015 1:08pm
Quoting vlady1974
This is excellent reading. Found it last night. Applied it this morning to UJ (long btw). http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=533279 How related do you think this is to TZ? How could Similarity/Dissimilarity be applied to it?
Welcome back, Vlady!

Yes, it's a great thread. Neio was kicking ass on that explorer as well. In my humble opinion, this concept is more fundamental than tz/rzs. In principle the fact that mostly the day closes above or below the open means "buy above the open, sell below the open". In this way, one effectively integrates along the candle lengths. The problematic bit for this is when the open of the day is revisited many times, so that any strategy based on this concept needs to deal with this.

Cheers,
k
  • #720
  • Jun 8, 2015 7:59pm Jun 8, 2015 7:59pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey Pedma, I'm not a coder so I don't know the implications on the array, but a PTZ is a zone to the right of the anchor bar before h has expired. Therefore, you CAN back test it.
Ok, thanks alot vlad
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
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