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Dollar Bulls Can Not Lose?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 5:34am Jun 5, 2015 3:36am | Edited 5:34am
The USA is building a Space Station on the Moon. MIT research has solved the fusion process and created a "battery" that will power a household (or car or factory) for a month, for less than $20.

Sounds fantastic? Well it is unlikely, but possible. Let us hope so. Otherwise:

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S & P 500 heading for the moon? This looks just as unlikely, but it is real. Surely, we are due a correction. If so, that will also be bullish for the dollar currency.

In the same way, continued good numbers from the USA are dollar bullish. We win both ways. Right?
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  • #2
  • Jun 5, 2015 10:03pm Jun 5, 2015 10:03pm
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  • #3
  • Jun 6, 2015 4:04am Jun 6, 2015 4:04am
I'm calling 10,000 on S&P by the year 2100
  • #4
  • Jun 6, 2015 4:53am Jun 6, 2015 4:53am
Quoting smikester
........ continued good numbers from the USA are dollar bullish. We win both ways. Right?
I've been holding down the 'buy' button on USD for a while now. Economically there are a couple of leading indicators showing signs of weakness recently - namely consumer confidence, wage growth and capacity utilization - but those weaknesses are still occurring in the context of longer term uptrends. Business Confidence and PPI - my favorite indicators (because they drive the others) - are still high or turning upward.

I agree with you about S&P 500 - I don't know if it will correct or not but the major reason for its big rally (QE) isn't there anymore.

Low oil prices are the main reason inflation is low, which is preventing interest rate hikes atm - if oil bounces back inflation could soar, meaning rapid rate hikes.

But of course it's all relative, what really matters to currency traders is how this situation compares to the situation in other countries .... when you compare them, I think it's hard to see any of the other tradeable currencies being stronger than USD in the medium/long term.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #5
  • Edited 6:58am Jun 6, 2015 6:44am | Edited 6:58am
I've been fundamentally and technically bullish on the USD, particularly more so in the last 6 months.

USD/JPY in particular has been a dream to trade. Coupled with Abenomics and the libor differential, it seems like a no brainer for me to stay long.

With regards to S&P I'm a little more cautious with the carve out of the ascending wedge. I'll wait for the breakout either side before loading up.
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #6
  • Jun 7, 2015 3:48pm Jun 7, 2015 3:48pm
Did you think that you might sell your blog to Universal Studios?
They might make a film out of it.
MI4 ?

Quoting smikester
The USA is building a Space Station on the Moon. MIT research has solved the fusion process and created a "battery" that will power a household (or car or factory) for a month, for less than $20. Sounds fantastic? Well it is unlikely, but possible. Let us hope so. Otherwise: {image} S & P 500 heading for the moon? This looks just as unlikely, but it is real. Surely, we are due a correction. If so, that will also be bullish for the dollar currency. In the same way, continued good numbers from the USA are dollar bullish. We win both ways. Right?
Why is a collapse in the SPX bullish for US$? ...genuine question here.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #7
  • Jun 7, 2015 3:58pm Jun 7, 2015 3:58pm
I also have the feeling about UJ, "surely it must come down"

As for SPX I think it goes up until the market really believes a rate hike is coming.
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Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #8
  • Edited 4:30am Jun 8, 2015 3:50am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting Magix
{image}
Thanks for the chart. Could you explain your thoughts on levels/trend lines for me please? The pair seems to be driven by the price of oil, currently, and I can't see that increasing relatively much in years to come.
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  • #9
  • Jun 8, 2015 3:58am Jun 8, 2015 3:58am
Quoting Exodus
Did you think that you might sell your blog to Universal Studios? They might make a film out of it. MI4 ? {quote} Why is a collapse in the SPX bullish for US$? ...genuine question here.
A correction in stocks might increase dollar value. It has done historically, mainly because selling stocks effectively buys dollars.
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  • #10
  • Jun 8, 2015 6:47am Jun 8, 2015 6:47am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} I think it's hard to see any of the other tradeable currencies being stronger than USD in the medium/long term.
I agree and thanks for your input. I see technical patterns and fundamental reasons for this view. Trading the long term is proving tough to do, though.
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  • #11
  • Jun 8, 2015 6:50am Jun 8, 2015 6:50am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Thanks for the chart. Could you explain your thoughts on levels/trend lines for me please? The pair seems to be driven by the price of oil, currently, and I can't see that increasing relatively much in years to come.
Nothing much to explain...I don't do fundies, just my thoughts on the techs.

Seems to be a lot of supply at a buck twenty five and a great big gap for the YO that could stand a test.
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  • #12
  • Jun 8, 2015 7:56am Jun 8, 2015 7:56am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Nothing much to explain...I don't do fundies, just my thoughts on the techs. Seems to be a lot of supply at a buck twenty five and a great big gap for the YO that could stand a test. {image}
Thanks for that. 1.25 is a big number. Interesting to note the 2008 run at 1.25 was driven by the credit crunch. This one is driven by interest rate expectation and fundamentals.
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  • #13
  • Jun 10, 2015 6:15am Jun 10, 2015 6:15am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Nothing much to explain...I don't do fundies, just my thoughts on the techs. Seems to be a lot of supply at a buck twenty five and a great big gap for the YO that could stand a test. {image}
Yup.
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  • #14
  • Jun 17, 2015 9:45pm Jun 17, 2015 9:45pm
After the first little tip toe into the demand zone, I was kind of expecting a little test of the previous demand for a bump n run load in supply.

Apparently, FOMC didn't want any of that and came up short.

The real question...How deep into the demand will we dive this go?
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  • #15
  • Jun 18, 2015 3:15am Jun 18, 2015 3:15am
Quoting Magix
After the first little tip toe into the demand zone, I was kind of expecting a little test of the previous demand for a bump n run load in supply. Apparently, FOMC didn't want any of that and came up short. The real question...How deep into the demand will we dive this go? {image}
You seem to be getting the hang of it.
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  • #16
  • Jun 18, 2015 5:59pm Jun 18, 2015 5:59pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} You seem to be getting the hang of it.
The hang of it?



Check it, dude.

2 weeks ago, I forecasted the fall of USDCAD on an H4 chart and the only way to have a full appreciation of the call is to analyze it on an M1 chart.

That's like fucking Laser beam precision...

Seriously...it's like circumcising an ant with a set of hedge trimmers.



Now maybe we see that supply zone?
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  • #17
  • Jun 18, 2015 6:57pm Jun 18, 2015 6:57pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} The hang of it? Check it, dude. 2 weeks ago, I forecasted the fall of USDCAD on an H4 chart and the only way to have a full appreciation of the call is to analyze it on an M1 chart. That's like fucking Laser beam precision... Seriously...it's like circumcising an ant with a set of hedge trimmers. Now maybe we see that supply zone? {image}
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  • #18
  • Jun 19, 2015 5:06am Jun 19, 2015 5:06am
Quoting Magix
{quote} The hang of it?
Seriously, I'm glad you have a sense of humour. Thanks for the illuminating charts.
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  • #19
  • Jun 19, 2015 3:05pm Jun 19, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} Seriously, I'm glad you have a sense of humour. Thanks for the illuminating charts.
All honesty...Just fuckin with ya.

Though I keep a Loon chart open, I only do that for watching current prices. Haven't actually tech'd that monkey fighter for like 2 years.

Call it a lucky guess?

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #20
  • Jun 23, 2015 1:38pm Jun 23, 2015 1:38pm
Quoting Magix
Now maybe we see that supply zone?

Very interesting...

As per my supply zone HERE, looks like I had another lucky call...well, if you wanna split hairs, my H4 was actually off by 1/2(ish) of a pip.

Only Mr Scott would beat me down for that one...

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