Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

Quoting panoramia

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{quote} Thanks for interevening and telling Nitsan that he shouldn't have posted links to his thread in this community. I never would do that in another trader's thread, in fact, I believe I posted only on a couple of other threads in my life. Thanks again for your support! All the best! Have a great Friday and weekend Cheers, Alfonso

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Quoting panoramia

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{quote} An zone is never removed until it's overshot and it's no longer valid. You have to keep the valid ones to see which ones are in control and when they will stop being in control, that is, when they are taken out, since they will many times act as flip zones, previous supply becoming demand with CPs created at those flip zones. Cheers, Alfonso

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Quoting John.

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Hi Alfonso! Thanks for your answer. Please comment what was wrong with my last trade (loss ). MN trend is consolidation, high in the curve. WK trend is down, high in the curve. D trend was consolidation, price was reacting to WK SZ. H4 SZ was good quality with good base and strong departure. But it was a loss Thanks in advance! {image} {image} {image} {image}

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Quoting digitalko

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{quote} Sorry but I did not understand your answer Alfonso. If daily CP was touched and price retraces to last daily demand can we take long at nested 4H demand?I would take it in that example as 4H demand sits on the distal line of daily demand. I wold take full daily level if 4H demand would sit on proximal line of daily demand. Do you agree?Also I would like to know if it is higher success probbability to trade daily SD levels on 30 pairs or 4H levels on 5 pairs getting the same number of trades per month?

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Quoting panoramia

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{quote} John, rules say that if a level is nested within 1 timeframe higher level that is not confirmed, all nested levels are negated. That being said, H4 supply zone was nested within a "pontential" D1 bearish engulf that neither made a 2:1 imbalance or consolidaed away, thus, all lowet timeframes than the D1, H4...etc, are negated for shorts. Secondly, 2 x D1 supply zones were taken out, and D1 20 EMA in control. Taking a H4 SZ with such a trend is lower odds, D1 wins over lower timeframes. Hope it makes sense John. Cheers, Alfonso {image}

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Quoting panoramia

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{quote} Now it's me who didn't understand your question sorry Can you ask that question with charts please? Regarding odds for SD levels, the lower timeframe you use the more trades you will have. Trading more pairs require more experience and could be a handicap, you could have many more losses. Focusing on a bunch of good pairs, with not too much correlation would be good for H4 zones. More pairs if you trade...

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Quoting John.

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{quote} I understand you, thank you. And another question. If a level is not confirmed (it removed opposing level but not 2:1 and not consolidated away with 1 OHLC candle) - can such level be in control?

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Quoting digitalko

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{quote} Hi I was reffering to Johns post from June 4th. He posted 2 AUDUSD charts. He was asking if he should take 4H demand zone nested in Daily demand if the price touched and now is retracing down from Daily CPIn my opinion if daily trend is up then CP is not fresh and if price retraces down to fresh demand I would take the trade. I would take full Daily demand zone if there will be 4H level sitting at proximal line of Daily demand. But the 4H demand sits on the distal line of the Daily demand so it is valid and if he accepts missing the trade...

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Quoting John.

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Alfonso, thank you very much! Do I identify trends and potential MN SZ as per the rules? MN - conso WK - down {image} {image}

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Quoting John.

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Alfonso please explain how to make analyses in such scenarios? 1. DZ (1) was removed by potential SZ (2). 2. But SZ (2) did not consolidated away and not 2:1. 3. Potential SZ (2) was removed by potential DZ (3). 4. But DZ (3) did not consolidated away and not 2:1. Questions: 1. If potential SZ is removed by another potential DZ during a downtrend, does it mean that we are in consolidation now? 2. Can a removal of a potential zone confirm opposing zone as a zone? {image}

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Quoting panoramia

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{quote} Monthly supply is there already John. Why? There was a Monthly demand zone taken out already. Can you spot it? Cheers, Alfonso

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Quoting panoramia

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{quote} A potential zone is just that, a potential zone. You can't base your trend analysis on removal of potential zones. A downtrend is defined by new demand created and respected, supply taken out. It says nothing about potential. Makes sense? Cheers, Alfonso

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Quoting John.

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{quote} I'm sorry but I can not find any more supply on the chart. Or you are talking about my potential MN SZ? It removed demand, but that MN potential SZ is not 2:1 yet.... Hope you will help! {quote} Now it is clear! Thanks!

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Quoting panoramia

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{quote} Yes, I'm referring to monthly supply that took out month demand contuation pattern John. Cheers, Alfonso

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