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Daily green/red candle

  • #1,041
  • Jun 5, 2015 12:08am Jun 5, 2015 12:08am
Hi Steve,

You have mentioned your active trades.

You have mentioned NZD/USD active.

I usually place my stop entry order 20 pips from the low of Red candle and same above the green candle as the case maybe. My NZDUSD was not activated.

Could you kindly advice where you place your stop orders? I mean how many pips from the high or Low as the case maybe.

Appreciate your input

Best regards

DD
  • #1,042
  • Jun 5, 2015 12:59am Jun 5, 2015 12:59am
Quoting Dildubai
Hi Steve, You have mentioned your active trades. You have mentioned NZD/USD active. I usually place my stop entry order 20 pips from the low of Red candle and same above the green candle as the case maybe. My NZDUSD was not activated. Could you kindly advice where you place your stop orders? I mean how many pips from the high or Low as the case maybe. Appreciate your input Best regards DD
hi DD
20 pips =too many for this system
i prefer 5 pips room or 0 depents the candle

i make daily scalping
i am not going with all the trend
the order can hold max 3 days
  • #1,043
  • Jun 5, 2015 1:26am Jun 5, 2015 1:26am
Thanks for the advice dimdel

appreciate it. Will do as you advice

DD
  • #1,044
  • Jun 5, 2015 2:16am Jun 5, 2015 2:16am
Quoting ChicagoRob
{quote} I usually start with 20 pairs and drill down to the best four or five candidates. My entries are exactly per dimdel's rules, with 0.0 fib as SL, and 100.0 as the entry. My primary goal is 160.0 fib, but it can end up at a lower/higher number, depending on how the trade develops. I look for momentum in the entry candle. If I see price stalling, as witnessed by a small candle body, I may exit early by taking whatever I can off the table. I would rather pull 15-20 pips than end up with BE+5. When I see excellerated price action and a big candle...
Thanks Bob,
That's pretty much the way I trade, with the trend, not against it (the trend is your friend), and discretionary (I am selective too). I am not a fan of trailing stop: I allow wide negative swings during a trade and I monitor the MAE (Maximum Adverse Exploration) during the trade.
I also agree on a lower TP target than 200 Fibo. While making my backtests, I often noticed that 200 Fibo was an agressive target and that something around 175 was better. This target is by the way the target that the famous trader Larry Williams uses in his "Target Shooter" tool, which is nothing more than a renamed Fibo.
I also filter entries and Stop Loss (I noticed during my backtests that it improves significantly the results - see my remarks in the Excel file).
I will continue my backtests on this system since doing it manually like I do presently allows me to "feel" the system and understand its strenghts and weaknesses, its, and its flaws and its potential.
As I was saying in one of my first post, in trading every system works. We just have to find the appropriate set of parameters. So this system should work, we have just to perform a bit of research to find the right parameters.
Cheers.
Xavier
  • #1,045
  • Jun 5, 2015 4:06am Jun 5, 2015 4:06am
Quoting Opemipo
{quote} This is what I mean. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...84#post8306484
I am in maze looking at your trades whats the benefit for holding trades -100 or -150 DD for TP like 30-40 pips
If you believe in yourself anything is possible !!
  • #1,046
  • Jun 5, 2015 4:39am Jun 5, 2015 4:39am
Quoting XavierParisF
{quote} Thanks Bob, That's pretty much the way I trade, with the trend, not against it (the trend is your friend), and discretionary (I am selective too). I am not a fan of trailing stop: I allow wide negative swings during a trade and I monitor the MAE (Maximum Adverse Exploration) during the trade. I also agree on a lower TP target than 200 Fibo. While making my backtests, I often noticed that 200 Fibo was an agressive target and that something around 175 was better. This target is by the way the target that the famous trader Larry Williams uses...
Thanks for your input - it's obvious you have a solid trading background. And, also, thanks for going to the trouble of running the backtests. I'm sure everyone here appreciates your contributions.

I try to trade "what I see," which means actively monitoring price action momentum. I tend to micromanage my trades, which could be a good thing, or a bad habit left over from my stock trading days. When a lot of discretion is involved, it's
virtually impossible to backtest a strategy. Things are different in real time, when you are working with the hard right edge of the chart. A regimented approach would surely make things easier for me.
  • #1,047
  • Jun 5, 2015 6:30am Jun 5, 2015 6:30am
Quoting imifx
{quote} I am in maze looking at your trades whats the benefit for holding trades -100 or -150 DD for TP like 30-40 pips
I am not surprized, I have the same kind of MAE (Maximum Adverse Exploration - notion a bit different from Drawdown, a MAE is during a trade, so it's a virtual loss, a DD is a cumulative real loss after the trades). If the MAE historical statistics are well managed and taken into account during trades, the trading system can be profitable.
That's why I don't like too much Trailing Stops: when you have systems requiring wide MAE, they are quickly triggered.
But every one trades the way he is the more comfortable from the moment it's profitable, nothing is wrong in trading. This is the beauty of this activity...
  • #1,048
  • Jun 5, 2015 6:55am Jun 5, 2015 6:55am
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  • #1,049
  • Jun 5, 2015 8:17am Jun 5, 2015 8:17am
  • #1,050
  • Jun 5, 2015 2:42pm Jun 5, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting XavierParisF
{quote} I am not surprized, I have the same kind of MAE (Maximum Adverse Exploration - notion a bit different from Drawdown, a MAE is during a trade, so it's a virtual loss, a DD is a cumulative real loss after the trades). If the MAE historical statistics are well managed and taken into account during trades, the trading system can be profitable. That's why I don't like too much Trailing Stops: when you have systems requiring wide MAE, they are quickly triggered. But every one trades the way he is the more comfortable from the moment it's profitable,...
Risk Reward is everything mate...

Happy Green Pips
If you believe in yourself anything is possible !!
  • #1,051
  • Jun 5, 2015 11:55pm Jun 5, 2015 11:55pm
Next backtest: USDJPY
The system does not like this pair!!!
Results negative on the whole period.
Always the large drawdown in February - April.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Daily GreenRed Backtest Results V4.xlsx   127 KB | 356 downloads
  • #1,052
  • Jun 6, 2015 12:12am Jun 6, 2015 12:12am
Quoting imifx
{quote} Risk Reward is everything mate... Happy Green Pips
You are right, R/R ratio is important, but there is a slight subtlety that a lot of people miss: most R/R ratio are computed with actual gains and losses, not with virtual ones during a trade (I have seen very few books / articles on risk computation based on virtual losses during trades).
That 's the reason why, and it may seem paradoxical, we have profiltable systems with good risk ratio but large MAE during trades.
Life is full of surprises, we never stop learning!...
Have a good day.
From a lovely sunny Paris this morning...
  • #1,053
  • Jun 6, 2015 12:35am Jun 6, 2015 12:35am
Quoting dimdel
{quote} hi DD 20 pips =too many for this system i prefer 5 pips room or 0 depents the candle i make daily scalping i am not going with all the trend the order can hold max 3 days
Hi Dimdel,
The more I get familiar with this system, the more I think it must be traded with the trend (in synch - synchronization - with the market as most Professional traders say). This avoids a lot of false signals.
A simple moving average could be used.
Tell me what you think of it.
Xavier
  • #1,054
  • Jun 6, 2015 1:55am Jun 6, 2015 1:55am
Hi Dimdel!

Just came across your thread,
Found interesting.
Subscribed.

Take care
Sevenskies
  • #1,055
  • Jun 6, 2015 2:02am Jun 6, 2015 2:02am
Quoting XavierParisF
{quote} Hi Dimdel, The more I get familiar with this system, the more I think it must be traded with the trend (in synch - synchronization - with the market as most Professional traders say). This avoids a lot of false signals. A simple moving average could be used. Tell me what you think of it. Xavier

hi Xavier

from sunny Greece

well I've tried many ways to find a right filter for false signals without success (many indicators , oscilators )
and i mean : some filters protect me from the false signals but lose many valid signals , and the balance say : is more profitable with no filter

if someone can find the right way , ok i am in , with you, but we must compare the results

i think the secret is to apply the right MM and the right pairs to trade ( max 6 pairs , the same all the time )
if you trade 24 pairs you will have every day at least 12 pairs signals= too many dispersion and need big capital

the signals are enough and capable ( for 6 pairs)

but i am still testing in live account
till now my results its ok, will see

Attached Image
  • #1,056
  • Jun 6, 2015 2:09am Jun 6, 2015 2:09am
Quoting Sevenskies
Hi Dimdel! Just came across your thread, Found interesting. Subscribed. Take care Sevenskies
wellcome 7skies

greek?
  • #1,057
  • Jun 6, 2015 2:27am Jun 6, 2015 2:27am
Quoting XavierParisF
{quote} Hi Dimdel, The more I get familiar with this system, the more I think it must be traded with the trend (in synch - synchronization - with the market as most Professional traders say). This avoids a lot of false signals. A simple moving average could be used. Tell me what you think of it. Xavier
xavier look the post 748 please
you calculate with the same way;
  • #1,058
  • Jun 6, 2015 10:58am Jun 6, 2015 10:58am
Quoting XavierParisF
{quote} Hi Dimdel, The more I get familiar with this system, the more I think it must be traded with the trend (in synch - synchronization - with the market as most Professional traders say). This avoids a lot of false signals. A simple moving average could be used. Tell me what you think of it. Xavier
I do not use the HA candles. I have all the pairs loaded and look at them at 2:00 PM California time and determine what the best trades my be. I avoid trades that go against the current weekly or monthly trend and also those that have had large run ups. I would prefer to wait until they are closer their 21 day moving average and then are starting back in the direction of the major trend. I have been doing very small trades as there are days that I may have several hit, and have increased my live account by slightly over 10% in about 2 weeks.

The reason this way of trading works is that you wait for a pull back, and the trade doesn't trigger until the momentum starts back in the direction of the weekly/monthly trend. a train that is in motion tends to keep going. I also don't go to the full 200 fib, but use my discretion in taking profits. May not sound like a lot but 20% a month compounded is a lot. Most people lose in forex by swinging for the fences.
  • #1,059
  • Jun 6, 2015 3:22pm Jun 6, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting paradoxical
{quote} I do not use the HA candles. I have all the pairs loaded and look at them at 2:00 PM California time and determine what the best trades my be. I avoid trades that go against the current weekly or monthly trend and also those that have had large run ups. I would prefer to wait until they are closer their 21 day moving average and then are starting back in the direction of the major trend. I have been doing very small trades as there are days that I may have several hit, and have increased my live account by slightly over 10% in about 2 weeks....
Well said. Sounds very much like the way I trade the strategy. The flip side to the coin is to base the trades on mean reversion, whereby price tends to gravitate back to the 21 MA.
  • #1,060
  • Jun 7, 2015 8:31am Jun 7, 2015 8:31am
Quoting dimdel
{quote} xavier look the post 748 please you calculate with the same way;
Hello Dimdel,
I have run new backtests on the pairs I had already tested, but this time I have taken the trades only in the direction of the trend according to a 10 days SMA.
Results are mixed.
The losing pairs are now profitable, but winning pairs are less profitable.
The good news is that now the system is profitable all the time (on the backtested pairs).
The bad news is that they gloabaly earn less than before (results cumulated on all pairs), but the risk level and the drawdown are reduced.
When the trend is well established, taking the trades in the trend direction is clearly good. But as usual, when we are in a trading range where prices are going sideways, results are bad.
So, if we had a trading range detector (trade when the SMA slope is above a given threshold?) , that would be a way to avoid trading in these areas.
Ideas are welcome.
Have a nice Sunday.
(We have a sunny weekend in Paris, with a lot of foreign tourists sipping drinks in the sun at the terrasse of the bars & restaurants. Come and visit us with the money you have earned on Forex!!!)
Xavier
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