Reflexivity in the USD

ES is really getting hammered right now. It might be nothing but I am now thinking NFLX will open up gap down tomorrow but lets hope not.

BREAKING SENIOR GERMAN OFFICIAL SAYS SECURITY SITUATION IN UKRAINE IS WORRYING, SEES HEAVY VIOLATIONS OF MINSK CEASEFIRE

Not this again . But hey if it sparks up volatility in the es market then bring it on

We have now broken the level mentioned above
Ukraine security official made comments regarding cease fire not being followed ES sold off and Dollar didn't like it either.
I missed the first reaction lower looking for a small retest of 95.22 to see if this will continue going into US trade

Longing dollar here at 95.015 for Friday NFP numbers. Had no bias but decided to long and set up a hopefully favorable Rr trade

Dollar was able to trade back above the 618 fib going into US open which is a nice positive, could be short lived but we will see
Oversold as i have stated numerous times that dollar may find some relief here as others may get in on the long side before NFP as well.
Also looking for some relief on lower claims in a few minutes here.

SL set at 94.75. Will hold this into NFP tomorrow no matter what it does, or unless my stop gets hit lol

EDIT: Alright! thesis working out so far,nice US data. Lets see what the first hour open brings

Now testing yesterdays US low price. Failed so far but we will see what the bell brings. Not enthused it couldnt carry through above this resistance level given the data. I will honor the SL and move on to finding an entry short for NFLX

We have broken above yesterday's low which is bullish on dollar and I of course have moved my position to BE as I don't expect us to trade near 95 this session.

EUR/USD has broken below yesterday's US session hi price. Not a buy here. EUR/USD looks to come down to 1.1225 by EOD

Very nice reversal here on Dollar. Now at 50% hi/low fib. This will be resistance for the day unless the open brings in a new batch of buys.

Now that my dollar position is in good standing lets see if I can game NFLX for a short going into next week. Fell like a ass hat b/c if I kept my 620w puts I would be up over 1400 right now as it is opening up at exactly $619

NFLX puts look ready. It failed to break above yesterday's highs but market makers are still gaming levels here so I will wait until a few large orders come through before buying weekly puts for next week.

No entry yet for NFLX
ES is a bit strong here so NFLX is following suit ATM. Will wait to the following target is hit before buying puts.

EDIT:731A est bot Jun2 612.50 puts here for next week continuation lower.

The level where I wanted to short took place and we did proceed to 620 which I was happy about given my 612 puts were briefly in profit with the light volume in that chain. However, obv it came back and pushed higher EOD .Alot of MM support at 620 and I am not discouraged as ES had a horrible day along with DAX and EUROSTOXX which all technically look to rollover a bit here this month. We will see what tomorrow brings b/c if we have follow through ON ES I will be amazed NFLX will be able to hold 620 yet again.

Some relief from my NFLX puts came in the form of a dollar reversal due to overextended selloff and RSI oversold here. The 5m print at the close came in at 95.525 which about clsoe to breaking 50% retrace higher as I spoke about this morning. I am in a healthy spot for NFP and will wait data if it continues to push hiher. Willing to risk 50 points here for a larger move next week.

EUR just tapped the 50% range from yesterdays US session HI/LOW trading range of
Hi 1.1320
Low 1.1123
Dollar is still holding above the wave hi/low at 50%. Looks like the ranges are set for the time being going into US. I am hoping to add to Dollar position in London though from my 95.015 entry yesterday morning

Taking a quick short here on EUR FUT at 1.1270 as it hit 618 fib from yesterdays range. Looking for 1.1250-45 to get out
EDIT 4:58A moved to BE

That was an easy short. Out at .1251 the rage held up well for resistance.

edit dollar now testing yesterdays US high that is why I got out and did not wait until .45. This should act as resistance for US dollar heading into NFP

HOW TO TRADE NFP TODAY

Here is what most non-profitable traders do when they go long or short a market seconds after a major news release:

HOW NOT TO TRADE NEWS EVENTS/CANDLE SPIKES
1. Let's say NFP blew expectations and Dollar futures immediately spiked.
2. You see this and place a MARKET ORDER and of course you get slippage of 1-3 points (or more). So now you're in near the peak of the candle and guess what happens next?
3. HFT, algos, day traders, and other participants start to cover their longs and you see your entry and the current market going further south
4. You freak out as you're down 15-20 points in less than 3 minutes which on futures is alot for small traders...AND YOU PANIC CLOSE FOR A QUICK LOSS!
5. Then the market becomes BID again and it goes in your direction once more and you get in again in hopes 'this time' it will work out. Hopefully you're lucky and it does, but most likely because your thoughts are I am just looking to get back what I lost and not thinking what the market can do until EOD you will take a small profit and not ride the move to its full potential

HOW TO TRADE NEWS EVENTS/CANDLE SPIKES (example chart below)
1. LET THE SPIKE OCCUR
2. Spikes just like currency, or really any market has 'waves' to find better entry or exit points. Having stated this the spike will come down because you have people covering their longs and you have stop running on the books almost cleared where the insturment will find a level to base at before deciding if it will continue the trend or if it will come all the way back down making the spike invalid
3. If you're not familiar with Fibonacci please read up as this tool is very powerful in trading and can provide you with better entry/exit points.
4. I personally use 15m chart on news events to find an entry as anything on a smaller timeframe will be misleading to go long in this example. To setup the Fibonacci retracement just place it at the candle low to the candle high after the first 15min candle has completed (see example below)
5. Spikes ALWAYS come down from a news event even if its just a little say to the 786%, 618%, 50% although the 50% I would NOT TRADE as my experience has been when it comes all the way back down to the 50 level it will usually come back to the original price.
6. Once price touches 786% wait for it to bounce off of it on a smaller TF for entry like the 5MIN CHART(separate chart for monitoring).

A. If holds set a buy limit at 5-6 points above the 786 fib price so your entry is clean and it won't cause a false break out. Then immediately set your SL at say 2-3 points below the 786 fib point. If you're risking 8 points to capture 20 or more this is a great trade.

B. If It does not hold on the first 15bar when it touches & the 5min does not hold in conjunction let it trade down to the 618% fib for new consideration for long. And repeat the same entry as I have mentioned in A.

C. MAKE SURE IT CAN HOLD EITHER 786 OR 618 on a 15m chart & 5min chart before setting up this low Rr trade. 786% OR 618% need to hold, if not, it will trade to the 50% fib WHICH I DONT TRADE AS THIS USUALLY SIGNALS A WEAK NEWS/ECON SPIKE

7. If you're only trading a one lot contract on currency futures let the market hit the first 15m spike high for consideration to cover for a profit.
8. If you're trading multiple contracts or lots (on spot) consider taking half off the table at the first 15m spike high, and set your SL higher for more profit if the market does not trade higher all day until close. But let part of the position run once the candle reaches the reactionary spike high as EOD usually brings a few more points.

THIS EXACT APPROACH WORKS FOR THE SHORT SIDE ALSO EITHER IN NFP OR OTHER MAJOR ECON RELEASES

The key is finding basing levels in the reactionary spike when it comes back down (or up if it spikes lower) to get long (short) and set a tight SL for a solid R:r play.

Here is the trade consideration I took on APRIL 3rd when i went LONG EURO as numbers were worse than expected. When we had NFP release i considered the profit potential and more importantly how much I could potentially lose while trading on the long side. I ended up doing very well that day just by using this approach and taking a long at the 786% fib level after if found "basing" on the 5min

Summary of that trade when I wrote it.
So per this chart below this was the NFP number and sequential spike in EURfut
It came down as the algos took profit and ppl that got in earlier whenever that may be going flat
THIS IS 5MIN BARS BY THE WAY
So you see that if comes down to violate 786% at 5:35 (5min after release)
then at 5:40 it come back up to breach 786 where you immediately have a pending buy right say 3-5 ticks above 786 (1.0983) and set your stop say 3-5 ticks below 786 (1.0978)

Then as you see it holds and continues higher and its up to the trader type if they want to ride it to the release spike high or see what price action does throughout the day to determine exit.

Just on futures alone if you had this trade say you went long just 1 contract for intra day margin around $500-600 depending on broker and you're getting 12.50 a tick
ENTRY:1.0986
STOP LOSS 1.0978 ( Risk $100 ex commission 12,50 * 8 ticks)
EXIT at say 1.1020 (reward $425 ex commission 12.50*34)
so that is a great RR for a day trader. Now add 10 contracts to that and say you cant make serious money in this play.

Moving my stop to 95.30 from BE. Dollar is far away enough that I am not concerned about being stopped out prematurely. And if NFP is a miss, I at minimum better get 30 points for this trade that has been on since yesterday morning. Otherwise if i 9575 come back to 95 even and stop me out at BE, Then I would of just drank and had terrible hangovers until Sunday night lol.

15min candle almost complete to do fibs. this might be an 886% fib or 786% fib long on dollar when it comes back down here.

Hey jeff. I got my Fibonacci indicator like this on the 15m chart

So should I wait for it to reach 78.6 or 88.6 level on the 5m chart and if it bounces enter?

http://i.imgur.com/ufWGC7D.png

Longing here as it crossed above the 886% I dont use 886% fib but todays report is a blowout.

This number was beyond expectations and 886% is where I got in, I have a small stop below. If it comes down 786% will hold. for a continued long in US open

So here was the setup I took based on my previous post. I didn't mention 886% fib b/c that is only used when a move really is strong and you expect accumulation absorbing ppl covering. What i did was had two charts up a 15m and a 5m

Once the 15m candle is complete at 8:30 I draw the fib on both the charts.
Then I wait for a cross below either the 886% or 786%
Obviously the 786% did not even touch b/c the report was so strong

So per the chart below once the 5 minute candle crossed above the 886 is when I went long and set a sl a few points below the 886
Notice the 15m chart was respecting the 15m 886 so this helps with longing.

I went in heavy here long, as you know my stop at EDIT: 95.30 was taken out after those bastards took me out early before the move up lol

But this is what I am talking about trading spikes is doable

I will slowly get out of several contraacts and let a few run until EOD