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Daily green/red candle

  • #1,001
  • Jun 3, 2015 3:27pm Jun 3, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting AbhijetPandi
Great stevepatt, I was thinking to implement support/resistance criteria in the EA. Based on your comment on yesterday's USDCAD where price was around Resistance zone, and actually turned down, making loss of Buy trade, i have added 1 more indicator to check the support and resistance... {image} {image} For Buy trade, If TP is Fib 150 level and if this level is around resistance zone, then buy/buystop will not be placed. So ideally Fib 150 level should be below the resistance zone... I am testing...
Hi Abhijet

I agree with you. I will only trade a daily candle changes if it takes place or near support or resistance zones. (Support or demand areas) I actually draw a fibo 0-100 between S and R and disregard candle change within the 38-61% zones.
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piphunt11
  • #1,002
  • Jun 3, 2015 4:52pm Jun 3, 2015 4:52pm
Quoting stevepatt
USD/JPY Pending Sell Stop GBP/JPY Pending Buy Stop GBP/USD Pending Buy Stop USD/CAD Pending Sell Stop NZD/USD Pending Buy Stop EUR/USD Pending Sell Stop from yesterday has been cancelled. I'm not placing Pending Buy Stops on EUR/USD or AUD/USD, today, it doesn't look right to me. I might well be wrong on this the Market will decide.

My Pending Buy Stops on GBP/JPY and GBP/USD are in play. The other Pending Orders I have closed.

UDSD/JPY Pending Buy Stop Yesterdays Bearish Trade failed to activate and yesterdays Candle closed Bullish hence I have placed a Pending Buy Stop
GBP/USD Pending Sell Stop YesterdaysBuy Stop activated and yesterdays Candle closed Bearish hence I have placed a Pending Sell Stop
USD/CAD Pending Buy Stop Yesterdays Sell Stop failed to activate and yesterdays Candle closed Bullish hence I have placed a Buy Stop
NZD/USD Pending Sell Stop Yesterdays Buy Stop failed to activate and yesterdays Candle closed Bearish hence I have placed a Sell Stop
  • #1,003
  • Jun 3, 2015 5:00pm Jun 3, 2015 5:00pm
Quoting AbhijetPandi
Great stevepatt, I was thinking to implement support/resistance criteria in the EA. Based on your comment on yesterday's USDCAD where price was around Resistance zone, and actually turned down, making loss of Buy trade, i have added 1 more indicator to check the support and resistance... {image} {image} For Buy trade, If TP is Fib 150 level and if this level is around resistance zone, then buy/buystop will not be placed. So ideally Fib 150 level should be below the resistance zone... I am testing...

Hi AbhijetPandi;

For this Method I'm not really looking for Support/Resistance, I surprise myself when I say that, but I want to keep this as simple as possible. We never know which Support/Resistance levels will have an effect on the Market until after the fact.
  • #1,004
  • Jun 3, 2015 6:11pm Jun 3, 2015 6:11pm
I have used a variation of this method to trade a no loss method for the Gbp/JPY over the last 8 months. I have only traded buy orders and never use a stop loss. If it goes against me, I wait until the next daily green candle and double the position size of the last entry with a new entry. I have never needed more than 2 doubles and have never had to take a loss. My account is up over 400%.
  • #1,005
  • Jun 3, 2015 6:36pm Jun 3, 2015 6:36pm
Quoting tdfuture
I have used a variation of this method to trade a no loss method for the Gbp/JPY over the last 8 months. I have only traded buy orders and never use a stop loss. If it goes against me, I wait until the next daily green candle and double the position size of the last entry with a new entry. I have never needed more than 2 doubles and have never had to take a loss. My account is up over 400%.
How do you determine TP?
  • #1,006
  • Jun 3, 2015 8:02pm Jun 3, 2015 8:02pm
Quoting tdfuture
I have used a variation of this method to trade a no loss method for the Gbp/JPY over the last 8 months. I have only traded buy orders and never use a stop loss. If it goes against me, I wait until the next daily green candle and double the position size of the last entry with a new entry. I have never needed more than 2 doubles and have never had to take a loss. My account is up over 400%.
I have the same question as Chicago. When do you decide to take profit?
The better looser you are the better winner you are
  • #1,007
  • Jun 3, 2015 9:40pm Jun 3, 2015 9:40pm
That is a good question and I don't have a definitive answer. Many times I will get a 100+ pip move from the initial entry. If I have used 1 or 2 doubles to save the position, I am willing to take a smaller profit. I have benefited from a weak JPY over the last 8 months. I have picked this pair because of the positive interest and because of its volatility. I started with 10K,20k, and 40K as my entries. I am now doing 30K, 60K, 120K. I have enough equity to easily do one more double if necessary. So far, I have not needed one. I traded this pair many years ago in a similar manner, but did not have a good method of determining where to enter the additional positions. In four years, I had traded a 30K account up to over 250K without ever having to take a loss. Than, the subprime crises hit, and I was wiped out after about 6 weeks. I shelved the method for several years until a few months ago when I discovered this method of using daily candles to enter.
  • #1,008
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:06pm Jun 3, 2015 11:06pm
But if you just go long without a sl, then in a profound downtrend such as 2007 and you will be wiped out again. How can you manage to avoid this?
  • #1,009
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:30am Jun 4, 2015 1:30am
Quoting AbhijetPandi
Great stevepatt, I was thinking to implement support/resistance criteria in the EA. Based on your comment on yesterday's USDCAD where price was around Resistance zone, and actually turned down, making loss of Buy trade, i have added 1 more indicator to check the support and resistance... {image} {image} For Buy trade, If TP is Fib 150 level and if this level is around resistance zone, then buy/buystop will not be placed. So ideally Fib 150 level should be below the resistance zone... I am testing...

goodmornig to all

hi abhi
how i can fix this?


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thanks
  • #1,010
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:33am Jun 4, 2015 1:33am
Quoting tdfuture
I have used a variation of this method to trade a no loss method for the Gbp/JPY over the last 8 months. I have only traded buy orders and never use a stop loss. If it goes against me, I wait until the next daily green candle and double the position size of the last entry with a new entry. I have never needed more than 2 doubles and have never had to take a loss. My account is up over 400%.

hi tdfuture

give us a chart

i think is very risky your method
but never know
  • #1,011
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:39am Jun 4, 2015 2:39am
Before I started using this method again, I looked back at that time period and discovered that I would not have experienced any losses by using this method. The key is to keep the entries small. I had a weekly goal back than of 5K and my entries were 100K, 200K, 400K, than 800k units. By waiting for a daily green candle to enter additional orders and by using smaller entries, I can work out of any loss. I fully anticipate to go another 4 years at least without a loss. This time I will not get greedy and increase my entries from where there are right now. Also, if we get another once in a lifetime event like we did in 2007, I will be more likely to pull the plug rather than try to manage out of the trade like I did in 2007.

Trading without stop losses is not for everyone, but it works for me. I just wanted to add my 2 cents worth regarding the validity of this method.
  • #1,012
  • Jun 4, 2015 3:18am Jun 4, 2015 3:18am
Quoting tdfuture
I have used a variation of this method to trade a no loss method for the Gbp/JPY over the last 8 months. I have only traded buy orders and never use a stop loss. If it goes against me, I wait until the next daily green candle and double the position size of the last entry with a new entry. I have never needed more than 2 doubles and have never had to take a loss. My account is up over 400%.
Trading without SL is safe only in lateral markets. You will never know when a market will exit this laterality period. That day you will be very rich or very poor (50% chance).

Another problem you will have is that you do not know your risk:return ratio. Using dimdel method you have a minimum 1:1 RR, a very important thing to know!
  • #1,013
  • Jun 4, 2015 3:29am Jun 4, 2015 3:29am
  •  turnfx
  • | Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Only money management is the key of | 334 Posts | Online Now
hey dimdel

ur strategy working good but i still got 2 paris EU GU can you tell me which are 16 pairs i wanna try on all the pairs
  • #1,014
  • Jun 4, 2015 3:35am Jun 4, 2015 3:35am
Here is the next backtest, on the most volatile pair of Forex: GBPAUD.
Results are not good.
While they are positive, the system suffered a large and long drawdown. The Sharp ratio (risk assessment) is very poor and profit factor too low.
Removing the BE mechanism double the results.
Once again, a trigger filter would have improved the results.
A backtest on a longer time horizon would be more reliable.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Daily GreenRed Backtest Results V2.xlsx   113 KB | 371 downloads
  • #1,015
  • Jun 4, 2015 3:52am Jun 4, 2015 3:52am
Quoting turnfx
hey dimdel ur strategy working good but i still got 2 paris EU GU can you tell me which are 16 pairs i wanna try on all the pairs

HI TURNFX

the EURUSD / EURJPY / GBPUSD / GBPJPY will rum

but i really dont know how many pairs must trade
i have these options

1) trade 4-6 pairs , the same all the time
2) trend the most strong pairs 6-8 ( every day other pairs) , but how see the strenth? CSM? other indicator? its ambiguous
3) trend all pairs = need big account, you have big dispersion and finally the profit will be very small or 0

my propose

i select 6-8 pairs
how?
backtest the last 12 months , and i take the first 6 best
till now only with this way can trade

ΔΔ
  • #1,016
  • Jun 4, 2015 4:02am Jun 4, 2015 4:02am
Quoting XavierParisF
Here is the next backtest, on the most volatile pair of Forex: GBPAUD. Results are not good. While they are positive, the system suffered a large and long drawdown. The Sharp ratio (risk assessment) is very poor and profit factor too low. Removing the BE mechanism double the results. Once again, a trigger filter would have improved the results. A backtest on a longer time horizon would be more reliable. {file}

go on xavier

i collect your results
thanks
  • #1,017
  • Jun 4, 2015 4:14am Jun 4, 2015 4:14am
if we will have Brussels agreement +/-
then i will put my SL at 600fib +TrSl 250fibs
i will reenter with the same color
EURUSD/EURJPY/GBPUSD/GBPJPY/GOLD
  • #1,018
  • Jun 4, 2015 4:28am Jun 4, 2015 4:28am
Quoting XavierParisF
Here is the next backtest, on the most volatile pair of Forex: GBPAUD
I think GBPNZD is even better............ or worse, depends
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,019
  • Jun 4, 2015 4:47am Jun 4, 2015 4:47am
Quoting dimdel
if we will have Brussels agreement +/- then i will put my SL at 600fib +TrSl 250fibs i will reenter with the same color EURUSD/EURJPY/GBPUSD/GBPJPY/GOLD
Oh la la Dimdel, your start breaking your rules!!!
Remember what all successfull traders say:
- discipline
- persistence
- consistency
- patience
- control emotions (good and bad)
- trust in the system with its exisiting parameters (not changing ones according to the news).
You may be right this time, but put your fingers in the nasty game of greed. You may be tempted to do the same a second time later on, if another news attracts you, and unfortunately when you change the rules, since you have not backtested the news rules, you enter a new world full of uncertainty.
Good luck!
Xavier
  • #1,020
  • Jun 4, 2015 5:00am Jun 4, 2015 5:00am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} I think GBPNZD is even better............ or worse, depends
Thanks Erebus.
I don't trade this pair (spread is too large). I will check.
I use the attached list to select volatile pairs. GBPNZD is not mentioned, but EURNZD is, and it is the second most volatile.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Most Volatile Pairs.pdf   226 KB | 710 downloads
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