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  • #301
  • Jun 2, 2015 2:46am Jun 2, 2015 2:46am
Hi Hayseed.
Could you please tell me which indicator is this ( yellow sign ), and maybe share it?
Thank you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPWeekly.png Size: 52 KB
  • #302
  • Jun 2, 2015 6:12pm Jun 2, 2015 6:12pm
Quoting 8Flow
Hi Hayseed. Could you please tell me which indicator is this ( yellow sign ), and maybe share it? Thank you.
//----

hey 8flow.... that's based on raghee horner's 34 ema wave.... she has youtube videos on it....

avery horton, aka tro the 'thebannedone', wrote a tunnel indicator about 8 years ago he called the 'dragon' based on her 34 ema wave.... mladen came up with a method to fill the tunnel.... tro had a whole pack of those dragon named indicators....

below is my adaptation...... you can turn off the alerts and labels......h

//-----
//-----

hey avery.... just kiddin about "thebannedone" ..... i know you can take a joke.... so don't be going all prepper on me.... ..... is that a new alias i see...........h
//----
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Raghee 34 Wave Alerts.ex4   14 KB | 463 downloads
File Type: mq4 Raghee 34 Wave Alerts.mq4   6 KB | 598 downloads
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #303
  • Jun 2, 2015 11:20pm Jun 2, 2015 11:20pm
fantastic Mr Hayseed, you are indeed one of the greatest retail traders of this era..... let me recap, you determin trend, enter with the trend and your entries are made in a grid like manner, how do you exit loosing trades, how do you determin the pips apart from each entry?
I am what Many Dream to be but only a few can achieve, im a part of the 1%
  • #304
  • Jun 3, 2015 3:42am Jun 3, 2015 3:42am
Hayseed thank you for the indi.

as i understood:
- if the price is above the raghee indi only consider long positions , if is below only short positions
- buy only when the tsr indicator is blu and sell when it's pink
- add positions only when we are in profit
- if we are in DD, don't add positions.

is it correct?
  • #305
  • Jun 3, 2015 3:43am Jun 3, 2015 3:43am
Quoting Soros
fantastic Mr Hayseed, you are indeed one of the greatest retail traders of this era..... let me recap, you determin trend, enter with the trend and your entries are made in a grid like manner, how do you exit loosing trades, how do you determin the pips apart from each entry?
Good question Soros. I hope hayseed can answer.
  • #306
  • Jun 3, 2015 10:42am Jun 3, 2015 10:42am
Quoting 8Flow
Hayseed thank you for the indi. as i understood: - if the price is above the raghee indi only consider long positions , if is below only short positions - buy only when the tsr indicator is blu and sell when it's pink - add positions only when we are in profit - if we are in DD, don't add positions. is it correct?

Hmm but Hayseed is Selling now :-)

Pending Orders Type Lots Gap Duration
EUR/USD Sell 1.1284Limit0.01212 hr 4 min
EUR/USD Sell 1.1323Limit0.01602 hr 4 min
EUR/USD Sell 1.1395Limit0.011322 hr 4 min
Open Trades MTM Lots Lev Return Profit Pips
EUR/USD Sell 1.11951.12640.010:1-0.2%-$7-69
EUR/USD Sell 1.12341.12640.010:1-0.1%-$3-31
EUR/USD Sell 1.12061.12640.010:1-0.1%-$6-58
EUR/USD Sell 1.12031.12640.010:1-0.1%-$6-61
EUR/USD Sell 1.11631.1264
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #307
  • Jun 3, 2015 2:46pm Jun 3, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting 8Flow
Hayseed thank you for the indi. as i understood: - if the price is above the raghee indi only consider long positions , if is below only short positions - buy only when the tsr indicator is blu and sell when it's pink - add positions only when we are in profit - if we are in DD, don't add positions. is it correct?
//----
Quoting Soros
let me recap, you determin trend, enter with the trend and your entries are made in a grid like manner, how do you exit loosing trades, how do you determin the pips apart from each entry?
//----

hey soros and 8flow.... yes, that seems to be the best over all plan for me.... and when i plot all my closed trades on a chart it is painfully obvious that almost all my losses are from not following those rules..... that's why i say, plot all closed trades on the chart at all times....

the occasional grid like look of the trades might be because some ea's are running on renko charts.... the renko blocks are 10 pips... most of the trades are placed on common signals which occur at different times so they will look kinda splashed on the chart.... such as a macd cross sell, might be last bar and a qqe sell might be this bar.... and a bbands sell might be next in line....

there will be times like now , where the weekly signal might be opposite of the other timeframes.... if you follow the weekly signal, it's almost a given the daily and 240 will whack you around.... i'll mentally allow an extra 100 bucks for loss leeway.... most of my trades are taken out be a opposite signal and not the true stoploss....

next few weeks will be very risky for me.... and probably costly.....h
//-----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: soros renko.png Size: 54 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #308
  • Jun 3, 2015 3:08pm Jun 3, 2015 3:08pm
Quoting samaralala
{quote} Hmm but Hayseed is Selling now :-)
//---

hey sam.... yes... and not without losses.....

the weekly alma sell signal has me trapped into the sell direction, so every time a lower timeframe sell signal comes along it sells....
it works best when both the daily and weekly agree....

i would not rule out seeing the eurusd at 1.550 ....... actually that would be a good thing.....h
//----
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #309
  • Jun 6, 2015 12:10pm Jun 6, 2015 12:10pm
employees are no different than any other commodity or product.... as the pool of supply diminishes , the costs will rise.... it will not take very many months of sub 5.5 % employment before employers will be on the short end of the stick..... almost all the 'number' of jobs lost in the 2008 era have now been recovered....

and we still have an unsustainably low fed rate.... that tide will turn within the next 6 months....

dailly eurusd, gbpusd and eurgbp appear to be at a tipping point.... weekly charts of each should confirm that this month..... once housing takes hold, there will be no lookin back.....h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPWeekly tip.png Size: 56 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #310
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:15am Jun 15, 2015 6:15am
i do use stoplosses.... and stick to them even though looking back it's clear to see just a small increase in the stop loss would have turned a loser into a winner..... the stoploss is based my view of true risk for the particular trade which sometimes is difficult to set....

to make it more difficult, true risk changes.... as example, suppose a trade had a 1:1 risk to reward... win 200 pips or lose 200 pips.... now suppose the pair moves 190 pips in your favor.... what is the true risk to reward now.... at that point your risking 390 pips to make 10.....


hey hayseed

just posted your quote from the oanda discussion forum regarding stop loss and take profit. My question: how do u handle that kind of situation where your sl is 200 and tp 200 pips and the position is lets say 180 in green?

best regards

thalaton
  • #311
  • Jun 15, 2015 7:58am Jun 15, 2015 7:58am
Quoting Thalaton
My question: how do u handle that kind of situation where your sl is 200 and tp 200 pips and the position is lets say 180 in green? best regards thalaton
//----
Quoting hayseed
nothing i do sets me apart or above the average trader, with possibly the exception of holding trades longer...... i always have a stoploss and usually it's wrong....h //------
//-----

hey thalaton.... yeah, lookin back, that thread was probably not the best place to have that discussion........

the answer to your question is i become more proactive....

by that i mean..... this just uses the alma indicator as an example...... suppose in the above situation we are 180$ ahead with only 20$ left to hit our long trade target.... but a negative 240 minute alma cross occurred 2 bars ago.... now suppose the average movement for that negative 240 alma cross is 120 pips.....

on average, if we let our long trade stand the 240 alma negative cross should erase 120$ of that 180$... is the potential of losing 120$ worth the chance of making 20$.....

knowing the average movement for each signal per timeframe can give you an idea of just how 'proactive' we should be....
//----

in a different context, for those that despise indicators, let's assume the same values above but the price has been hitting and stalling at R3 for the past four 30 minute bars.... what is the risk in holding an intraday long trade at R3 when you have already made 180 of 200.....

there is a point of diminishing returns..... at that point i usually will try to close at least partial and re-enter at better prices..... for some reason my experience with trailing stops has not been positive....

//-----

the flip side of this would be knowing just how far you might go in the hole when taking a bearish weekly alma short trade.... weekly signals are very hard on drawdowns..... there has probably never been a week where there was not at least 1 bullish alma cross.... so if the average 240 bullish movement is 200 pips, we can feel confident at least once per week the market will move 200 against us.....

on weekly signals i usually expect to see -300 at some point..... h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #312
  • Jun 16, 2015 5:04am Jun 16, 2015 5:04am
Hey hayseed

thanks for the reply.
As I understand besides your very systematical technical approach the fundamentals play also a very important role in your decisionmaking. Have u also developed some kind of "systematical" fundamental technique like u did with the technical indis?

And my last question: what would be your advice for a person who has no experience is programming and wants to learn mql. Where to start, what literature ( didnt find anything of use on I-net) etc..

Thanks as always for your time and the explanations

best regards

thalaton
  • #313
  • Jun 16, 2015 8:47am Jun 16, 2015 8:47am
Quoting Thalaton
As I understand besides your very systematical technical approach the fundamentals play also a very important role in your decisionmaking. Have u also developed some kind of "systematical" fundamental technique like u did with the technical indis? And my last question: what would be your advice for a person who has no experience is programming and wants to learn mql. Where to start, what literature ( didnt find anything of use on I-net) etc.. Thanks as always for your time and the explanations best regards thalaton
//----


hey thalaton.... yes fundamentals do play a large role in my views.... but a single twitter can turn that upside down in a couple seconds.....

it's my belief that the fundamentals are largely reflected in the weekly trend.... hayseeds have no impact on the weekly trends, big money professionals do..... most of the professionals are lookin out 12 to 24 months..... these people have at their disposal both the information needed along with account sizes to weather daily countertrends....... +/- 10 million dollar days are common for them.....

my approach at reflecting the 'fundamentals' into 'systematical' was to use the weekly trends as a filter..... below are some examples.... primarily used on the 30,60,or 240 charts, the blue bars would represent , within reason, buying.... the red bars would represent, within reason, selling.... and the magenta bars would represent no mans land where a wild card decision maker would be needed....

using my current in the red audusd trades as an example, bars are violet so the weekly trend is in no mans land.... no clear buy or sell..... but, the latest rba minutes clearly state both the need for and the expectation of a lower exchange rate..... so the wild card favors selling.....

A further depreciation therefore seemed both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in commodity prices over the past year. rba

or the wild card could be the 240 tsr..... you just need a reliable tie breaker..... or perhaps just wait......

//-----


most of us started with codersguru..... i also printed out the mq4 help guide and studied it.... the most current guide is included in the meta editor.... under the help tab click on reference....

the best way to learn is to start with the simplest thing, such as a moving average..... study every single character in the code.... build from there.....

also study the work of the best coders only, mladen, enivid, and such.... they are clinical and pristine in their approach....

just as you can see a person in the manner in which he writes or speaks, you can see a person in the manner in which he codes..... avoid like the plague anyone that codes in a verbose manner......

the old full help file mql english book...... that is a chm file from metaquotes themselves.... once you download it, right click on folder and select properties then select 'unblock' and apply..... you'll only have to ublock once....h


//----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.png Size: 43 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #314
  • Jun 18, 2015 9:09am Jun 18, 2015 9:09am
Quoting hayseed
//--- hey sam.... yes... and not without losses..... the weekly alma sell signal has me trapped into the sell direction, so every time a lower timeframe sell signal comes along it sells.... it works best when both the daily and weekly agree.... i would not rule out seeing the eurusd at 1.550 ....... actually that would be a good thing.....h //----
//----

the weekly alma has now changed... so daily and weekly agree.... the last weekly signal was all too short in length, only 2 bars..... short length signals are the bane of trend following..... and have somewhere around -700 in losses this week to prove it.....

under normal situations the weekly alma signal would be worth about 400 pips, half of which we already have..... this would bump my 1.550 up to about 1.650.... 1.650 would force the possibility/probability of 1.750/1.850.....

with the weight of both greece and the bund sell off hanging over the euro's head, and mine, might be a good time for me to lay low..... there will be a clearer day.....

//-----

will spend some time workin on a probability meter such as those seen in the commercial section.... not aware of any which are using metatrader's latest graphical object onclick capabilities to the fullest.....

studying on the best layout now....h
//-----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: alma.png Size: 54 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #315
  • Jun 23, 2015 5:03am Jun 23, 2015 5:03am
blowout numbers in euroland today.... 7 out of 7 beat expectations..... ...... euro strength is a good thing for those wanting to short the euro.....

back around mid march the large specs began whittling back on there euro short bets.... now less than half that march short interest number exists today.... to me this means they are waiting for the euro to go too far.... large specs didn't get large by chasing small moves.....

one of the tests i have the rugrats do is to go thru every chart on every timeframe and find me the pair that is unnaturally strong or weak by using the zigzag lead values of 5, 12 , 34 and 75...... such as, 5,5,3 ..... 12,5,3 ..... 34,5,3 ..... and 75,5,3 .....

example would be, at the moment the eurgbp now has only a single up leg left standin..... all else are down..... this usually precedes a washout followed by a countertrend move.... aka, the pin bar....

//-----
one of the pictures below show current eurgbp, the violet highlighted area shows last zigzag direction on week and below timeframes..... the blue highlighted area below shows current buy/sell/wait signals , lime/red/gray dots..... those buy/sell signals do not take into account the zigzags direction.... the lime/red bars show current strength on each timeframe.... seconds ago every timeframe below the weekly had a sell signal.... hmmmmm... sell signals in an unusually weak market....

all that is to say, don't sit on a pin bar.....

//-----

there are probably a dozen currency strength indicators.... with probably 5 or 6 different methods of calculating strength.... this is the reason for sometimes conflicting pictures between them.....

some will always say don't reinvent the wheel, but personally i see nothing wrong with improving it if possible.... or personalizing it to my tastes.... one chart below has blue eur, tan aud and lime usd highlighted.... strength and weakness based on igorad's alma....

still tryin to hammer out the details of my personalized wheel.....h
//----
//----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sell eurgbp.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cot.png Size: 126 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd cross.png Size: 52 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #316
  • Jun 23, 2015 5:54am Jun 23, 2015 5:54am
nzdusd just went total red... all zigzags now down with nonrelated sell signals on every timeframe..... one of the few times that trailing stops come to my mind.....

the 7 dots above the buy buttons are the current price vs daily pivots/support/resistance for each pair..... layout is S3, S2, S1, P, R1, R2, R3.... eurusd is now knockin on S3's door.... the other eur pairs bearing down on S2.....

and new york has yet to open.... should be interesting day....h
//----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pivots.png Size: 57 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #317
  • Jun 24, 2015 12:10am Jun 24, 2015 12:10am
audusd stalled at r1... then fell back to pivot..... 2 hours till london open..... pushed profit target down to s2 just in case......

would not rule out a second attempt at r1..... usd gdp at 8:30 est....

easy to see it at .78 .... hard to see it at .80 ..... looks like a fair shot at .76 to me.....h
//-----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s2.png Size: 59 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #318
  • Jun 28, 2015 4:00pm Jun 28, 2015 4:00pm
some asked about my placing many small trades instead of a single large trade....

suppose the weekly and daily trends were down..... suppose we had in mind to sell....

signals tend to come in groups but in a haphazard manner..... some early.... some late.... some you never know.... like cows coming back to the barn at night.....

the first chart below shows a small group of indicators on the audusd 4 hour chart.... green for buy red for sell....

keep in mind this a small account....

if we took every initial sell signal per indicator, we can clearly see trades would be all over the 4 hour board....

now add some depth..... the second chart below has the same setup but this time the signals are shown in a multi timeframe format..... so if we place it on the 5 minute chart, we can see on every 5 minute bar the signals for the 15, 30, 60 and 240 charts.....

imagine taking every sell signal on each of those 4 timeframes.... that's a whole pack of sell orders and this is a small account.... so the orders must be small.....

there was a time occasionally at the end of the 4 hour bar, if the 15 and 30 minute charts had turned against me, i would close all the trades and put in a sell limit with the combined lot size well above the current price.... this practice worked quite well....

i'll post the indicators in the charts later.....

this account should grow at roughly 1% per day..... it will not take long for the order size to increase.... you can't rush it....
//------

we have a blind date with miss market this week..... she might be 18, but prepare for 80.....h
//----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: multi.png Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eli.png Size: 63 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #319
  • Jun 29, 2015 12:56pm Jun 29, 2015 12:56pm
eurusd and nzdusd are now at 61.8% retracement of the exaggerated weekend move from 6/16 to 6/29... audusd now at 50% of the same.... there are probably enough hayseeds, like me, on the wrong side of that retracement to push for the full 100%.....

central banks are doing their job to restore order..... obviously that is a good thing.... even if it goes against me temporarily....

i'll stand my ground..... at least for the next 5 minutes.....h

//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 61.png Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1 61.png Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPDaily 50.png Size: 78 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #320
  • Jun 29, 2015 1:49pm Jun 29, 2015 1:49pm
Hey hayseed

when will u get out of the AUD NZD trades? When the retracement shoots above the 100% Fibo ?

best regards

thalaton
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