Reflexivity in the USD

Have you changed your style?

I have a little bit in the last two months as the first half of this thread was more macro based position trading. But I have been getting mentored by my brother more and more the last few months to trade only US open to sometimes close. I have been successful doing it with CL (oil) but as I am seeing with currencies given the London vol its been a bit harder. This week I am really seeing if I can continue US trading currencies or it feels awkward like i have been a few weeks.

ES, TF, CL have been easy to trade US session ranges or ABCD reversals but currencies are a bit more difficult when I am trying to find setups intraday. I might go back to my old style trading like I did with AUD and stick with range trade on Cl,ES,TF only

EUR so far has traded to the level I thought it was going to trade to on Tuesday US session. Missed the long here even though I wanted these levels per previous post so I will have to wait for US now. EURO hit the exhaustive leg lower and also found support on the major HI/LOW 618 area. I will be looking for one of two entries to get long

1. Let it break out then come back down to yesterdaypivot highat 1.0932 to see if buyers are willing to hold the line for an all day trend move
or,
2. Let the price come back down yesterdays US session range to around 1.0907 to get long with stops a bit below 1.09

Dollar finally is finding some sellers here which is at the 786 fib point from the minor wave plotted. 97.03 was yesterdays low and will wait for a clean break and failure in US to help with the EUR long thesis.

Again not looking for a position swing here, just looking to capture 30 maybe 40 ticks today on a few contracts.

Not too upset that I was long yesterday and got out at BE bc I made more than enough in CL, thats part of trading, come back the next day fresh

nOW AT 1.0901 waiting for an hourly close and checking around to see if anything happened as Oil dropped like a stone along with EURo so making sure its not some bs news.

EDIT 5:58a buy stop 1.0910 2c

Something is going on and its not Lew's comments that caused this sudden spark in dollar,euro,oil. Pulled 1.010 buy limit and will wait now to see how euro 10891. If we fail there to hold on EURO we could be at yesterdays US low going into today's open but we will see where price is at 930

edit:Greece said likely to miss may deal deadline as talks stall, Greece said to be nowhere close to agreement with creditors: SO thats what this was. Hard to go long at all today after this. Will try to find entry for short or just focus once more on oil today or do nothing which is also prudent

Now trading at yesterday's US session low 1.0866, lets see If US will hold the line here once more not looking to long though as Dollar is breaking every fib imaginable right now. Will wait for a bounce then see how eur test the lows again to even remotely consider a quick long. Otherwise will just play oil today once more

EDIT Its done getting smoked not shot on a long at all it would be trying to catch falling knives hoping to get filled 1.0865 short but well see.

Wow some of these orders that are flashing then being pulled are insane. This market could go straight to 1.07 quick. I wish I could just put in a market order instead of these limits that are not getting close to filled.

I have just been following both euro and yen down. Have 3 sell positions in the 1.09-1.13 range on eurusd, and two buy positions on usdjpy between 121.5 and 123.

Getting worried as we approach these lows, will have to take something off to lock in some profit. The problem with this kind of stacking is you can have large equity swings very quickly

Edit - took a smaller one off just after I said that.

Very nice trade congrats on that swing it should bode well for your month end return. I need to go back to position on currencies myself as tick and intra works better for me on other futures products, not so much on currencies.

As for EUR it should find support here as Dollar is bouncing up against the 618 from major hi.low
But then again dollar has been busting through fibs all week and is so overbought that it really is irreverent at this point lol

sold at mrkt as eur tested yesterdays low with this recent headline. In short at .57 looking for EOD to finish where US opened up at

Eur back in yesterdays zone closed out for a loss. Best to all rest of day I am going to step back for a few days as my trading has been sub par this week.

Hey everyone. I have decided to trade a bit more longer term and stop with intra day trading currencies as I find the setups are more difficult to find for more me at least in capturing moves. A friend of mine said to me that I made the majority of my money riding trends and I should not feel compelled to trade MORE when there is no setups. Looking at the last months trades my big mistakes were the following:

* Setting stops way too tight so that I can't have a bit of wiggle room to let the reversals or continuation moves take place
* Not focusing on correlations/inverse with the asset classes which consistently hold up when trading certain currency pairs in giving my further guidance for direction
* and not letting profits really run. I have been closing positions during US to take full advantage of intra day margin which is amazing that I can hold so many contracts with little margin and full tick value. I need to go back to overnight hold.

Dollar is now again below its major Hi/low wave 50% fib. I wrote about dollar finding resistance last week at the 61.8% and it continued to fail at this level with overbought RSI. Now that dollar is trading and finding support at the B wave hi it could see a small bounce here before falling further.

Another interesting story is Oil/dollar inverse correlation is starting to take shape once more and if Oil breaks out of this range and trades to 65 we could see a much lower dollar.

I was looking through options trade potentials and stumbled on NFLX as a great short opportunity. Besides trading currencies this week I will look to get into weekly options for this week and next week

The June $610 weeklies closed at $1.20 a contract so hopefully we don't gap down open tomorrow as I think ES will trade lower tomorrow in tandem.
Great profit potential risking hopefully $1200 for 10 contracts but will pay up to 1.50 if available. Great target for the next 8 days is $600-$590

I don't deviate too much from currencies but when setups look convincing for a reversal ABCD then I don't mind stabbing at it. And if I am wrong I will only be out say $1200-$1500 if my options expire worthless. Easily can make $6000 or more on this trade if this move takes place in the next 8 days.

Shorting dollar on current level opened up immediately testing yesterday's US low

Also just bot 5c of the 620W puts on NFLX. It hit the top of its range from yesterdays high and ES looks ready to roll over a bit here. paid 2.63 for a total cost of 1315 (ex commission) small trade but I think NFLX can move lower end of day and tomorrow for a quick profit. Also got in short on dollar at 95.74

Both of these position will have to take a few days to develop. NFLX obv has to be sold on Thursday before EOD to avoid decay and take a total loss if directional play lower is incorrect

Alert Dollar is now trading at its 50% fib from the recent Hi/Low wave set in. It already broke this morning the B wave top so if we close at these levels or lower we could see a completion near 95
A bit concerned about RSI being oversold and we are at this fib. Will just have to watch PA today and then set stops hopefully at BE going into Friday or set stops at the high of yesterdays range area.

out of dollar at 95.39 nice easy push lower today but rsi is oversold a bit here so I will lock in this healthy profit. NFLX option flat only up 400 and change hoping for a dump tomorrow

NFLX put working out nice so far. If we can break this 622 the market makers have been defending all day then tomorrow or even today we can trade to $618
620w now priced at $3.50 so up about 33% right now. I will of course put a stop in before the close to ensure a profit on this trade regardless where we open up at tomorrow.

Just got out of all NFLX puts at 3.80. The allure of taking this profit for me was too much so I locked it in. Because we're finishing off the lows here Tomorrow we should possibly dump so I will look to get into weeklies on the 615-600 puts. Just hope I can find a nice entry the first 15minutes.

For those who trade forex, I would also consider learning options, its a great way to trade with limited risk provided you are not doing complex or naked options. I will trade a bit larger tomorrow getting in as this move looks transparent for a big red candle tomorrow

OUTLOOK FOR DOLLAR GOING INTO NFP

Data points the last few weeks have been good not great which is already priced in and talked about ad nauseam the last couple quarters. Yellen is confident that what we saw in Q1 was transitory and wage inflation should pick up along with other reading for a year end hike. If we can maintain the 200k moving average on jobs then dollar should find a baseline here until next fomc meeting. Given the slow summer months starting to take place on our screens we could be in an extended trading range here between 93-97 unless major breakthroughs come out of Greece where flows and hot money will chase EUR even further.

If we obv have a terrible print like we did in April then we can fully expect dollar to easily trade to 93.25-93 on Friday.


TECHNICALLY on how to trade NFP and not get in 2 minutes before the release to gamble may be as follows:
Dollar wont go too crazy in today's trade I don't expect (again barring a surprise announcement in Europe)

Most likely going into Friday's US trade we will stay within yesterdays range set for US trading on Dollar which was 96.32 (us open hi) and 95.23 (us open low)
Dollar is oversold here (hence why I got out yesterday for a quick profit) and EUR has just been on a tear which needs to find consolidation or minor retrace to see if this is a healthy rally.

I am not biased either way on dollar at the moment as everyone knows that a rate hike is not likely this summer so I have to just play ranges until major position trends come in that are visable on the charts.

If you're bullish on NFP tomorrow ( strong dollar) selling eur ect against dollar at these levels for Friday;s report is advantageous as today we will most likely see dollar trade to yesterday's US session mid point which is 95.71 (price now is 95.56) or if you trade USD/X pairs on forex then having your pivots while knowing dollar will trade to it's mid range today is comforting b/c you will already have pips in your favor and can set your stop at BE for Friday.

If you're bearish NFP (weak dollar) then let the dollar trade up today slightly to get long EUR, GBP, x pairs later today. EUR and GBP most likely will test yesterdays US session low or mid point so being a buyer and chasing here is not the best route. So the two t opportunities for finding longs in spot EUR, ect is either waiting when dollar index is near 95.77 or, have your tick chart up on dollar and let it have a clean break below yesterday's US session low at 95.23

I am still undecided myself how I want to position going into NFP because it could go either way really. I will just wait until 95.22 is broken to short and wait for NFP or wait until 95.77 acts on PA before placing a buy or sell going into NFP.

Good luck all, and still looking to reenter that NFLX put trade today as we are looking to dump. I have options books for free in pdf form so don't spend amazon money, PM me and I can send a few over to you.

EDIT: ADD typing again, and a few sentences were backwards on shorting vs. longing