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My trades using combination of FF strategies with fibs and EW

  • #41
  • Jun 1, 2015 1:01pm Jun 1, 2015 1:01pm
well ... UJ did not come down with 261.8 resistance and it took my stops. I lost a bit there but that's part of the game. We lose some but not all the profits made so far. The price went to 300 % exactly on the fib which was a low probability but it did it. This my dear friends is the main problem when you trade counter trend, we really cannot tell when it will reverse. I had only one position in my live account, but i went a bit crazy on my demo..

Now here is a chart again ... probably it will reverse . Stops are very tight now just a few pips above the 300 %. The high on my chart was 124.91 and my stop is 124.98
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ misfire.JPG Size: 64 KB
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  • #42
  • Jun 1, 2015 1:06pm Jun 1, 2015 1:06pm
If it goes above this, i mean close the day above this fib, then there is no point chasing the price, just go long as there will be no stopping this until 127. Just my 2 cents. Hoping this will close below 124.83 before the day is done.
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  • #43
  • Jun 1, 2015 1:23pm Jun 1, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting stringfx
EU update. It seems EU wants to go up to just about 1.1060 for the greater fall later on. This bearish move looks very iffy to me. The big boys are doing a make belief that the major bear trend has started. When most retailers are short, they will take the prices up and take out most of the stops. I will sell EU only after it reaching 1.1060++. Now i am expecting EU to drop to 23.6 % fibo of this rally to pick prices up again. Here is a chart. This has a good feel of a trap {image}
These counter trend trades are those which kills a retail trader... it's so easy to trade the trends but itchy fingers do not allow me to sit back and just watch the fun. I am too greedy for which i pay the price sometimes

Anyway, EU has started going up. by the time price reaches 1.1060, people will start thinking of going long and then suddenly they find the carpet whisked off their feet. So i am going to start selling small from 1.1060 onwards .
STING
  • #44
  • Jun 1, 2015 1:27pm Jun 1, 2015 1:27pm
Quoting stringfx
If it goes above this, i mean close the day above this fib, then there is no point chasing the price, just go long as there will be no stopping this until 127. Just my 2 cents. Hoping this will close below 124.83 before the day is done.

Yen is so weak at the moment, that any good data from US and boom UJ goes up. If you notice, Us dollar Index did not move and so did usd/chf, it's just this yen pairs which went up so much.
STING
  • #45
  • Jun 2, 2015 10:26am Jun 2, 2015 10:26am
Quoting stringfx
EU update. It seems EU wants to go up to just about 1.1060 for the greater fall later on. This bearish move looks very iffy to me. The big boys are doing a make belief that the major bear trend has started. When most retailers are short, they will take the prices up and take out most of the stops. I will sell EU only after it reaching 1.1060++. Now i am expecting EU to drop to 23.6 % fibo of this rally to pick prices up again. Here is a chart. This has a good feel of a trap {image}
Oh my god!! just look at that manipulation. I hope everyone who saw this message yesterday, did not fall for this trap. I had checked the sentiment only on FF and it showed 67% of people with live account short while eur/usd was going a bit down, which is why i posted the EU update. Anyway i hope there was no margin calls at least.

I have started selling small. Due to this big 4 hr candle, there might be a retest of the highs (since it has come down a bit). and maybe more. If it crosses 1.1200 convincingly, then it may go to 1.1280 which is the resistance on reuters benchmark rates. Hope this crashes from here. It will take it's time as there is not much news anymore. opportunities to short will come at higher prices, so sell small. Not putting an SL at the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eumaniac.JPG Size: 135 KB
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  • #46
  • Jun 2, 2015 11:27am Jun 2, 2015 11:27am
Here is a EU chart to possibly think that wave 2 of major wave 5 could be complete.
The high from 1.1466 to a low of 1.0821 would be called as minor wave 1. then an a-b-c retracement to an exact 161.8 fib of wave a to hopefully complete minor wave 2. ( i am pretty bad at gauging correctional waves.)
Hopefully wave 3 will start from here down with a 5 minor wave reversal. Should be fast and furious in my opinion. Let's see what the news of tomorrow bring us

Considering wave 2 has completed and wave 3 has begun and calculating the wave 3 targets of a minimum 100% of wave 1, we will get at least a TP of 1.0548. The next target is a whopping 161.8% of wave 1 which goes to TP2 as 1.0149 (almost near parity). we also have 4th and 5 th wave pending to clear parity
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu lat11.JPG Size: 95 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU daily wavecount.JPG Size: 63 KB
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  • #47
  • Jun 3, 2015 4:26am Jun 3, 2015 4:26am
slight change in my count for EU

Since the start of wave 1 down, it seems like a 3 wave down move instead of a 5 wave. In which case, i am labelling it as 1-2 and then i-ii. In this case we have a wave 3 down at the moment on the smaller i-ii wave and i am expecting a iii wave down to 1.0804 as Fe 100 minimum and 1.618 would be a tp2 of 1.0564. This is a possibility as there is a lot of EUR and US data to come now. what i am worried is the sentiment data on FF in which the short on eur/usd ha reached 58% as i am typing and this could be an opportunity for the institutional traders to take the prices up one more time to shake of the weak shorts by taking their stops, so i would advise anyone reading this to protect their positions with a stoploss at 1.1210 (if you are all short). If price crosses this point, then you can expect price to reach 1.14++ and maybe take out the previous high before a big drop. Just my 2 cents.. My main count still shows a big drop to 1.05xx
Here is a chart with my latest count.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU invalidation.JPG Size: 65 KB
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  • #48
  • Last Post: Jun 3, 2015 10:03am Jun 3, 2015 10:03am
just what i was afraid of ... 60% shorts on FF sentiments when price took off long. At the moment it is 49% short. WIll wait until 1.1314 to short again. The move does not look like a convincing bull in my opinion, but then again this is my 1/2 cent
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