NZD/USD

It is the current level of support in the cross. It's a double bottom... It bounced off the march low following the RBNZ holding the OCR, and subsequently rallied to .7760. A break below 0.7180 level would surely trigger lots of stop loss orders pushing the pair lower.

Ok. Thank you ...maybe 0.71-0.7120 is next target.(of course I might be wrong)

Here is a chart to help summarize things. We've seen two channels of consolidation on the way down to 0.7180.. The first channel was downward sloping, the second upward. Although the cross has broken through the upward channel retrace, my intuition says 0.7180 (double bottom support) will need a catalyst to break through. You never know though - London loves to come in and invoke madness.

The chart shows a previous double bottom support ~.7620 being broken on the third retest of the level (however I believe there was bullish economic data from the US when this happened; can't remember though). The way things look, a third retest of our new double bottom support (0.7180) would likely trigger a big sell off - however, like I said, I'm not sure it will happen without some us$ positive data prints. Good luck.

P.S. - Yes, ~0.7115 is the next low under 0.7180... A low created in March of 2011.

Considering yesterday's decline, the NZDUSD forms, Falling-Wedge Formation, a Bullish formation. Break of 0.7310 and a close above 0.7330 could confirm the bull-run towards 0.7420.

Following a break below 0.7250, NZDUSD on the verge of breaking below 0.7200 mark, which now seems to accelerated the downward momentum towards testing its next major support near 0.7100 mark, tested in March 2011.

Fonterra cuts its 2014-2015 milk payout forecast. Says global prices haven't risen as expected and markets over supplied with dairy

Attachment Attachment

Can global economic conditions explain low New Zealand inflation? (PDF 423KB)

Just a technical document only.
not very useful.
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BUSINESS BREAKDOWN: Kiwi slumps as Fonterra forecast stokes concerns
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/bu...215600452.html

I think : if no June rate-cut, it implies a reversal soon on NZD/USD? (my personal thought only : please do not be so serious.)
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Today, USD Prelim GDP q/q

(refer to FF Calendar) last 2 dates' data are good in order to lower NZD/USD on the next working day.
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Co-Operative Bank posts 24pc lift in profit
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/ne...ectid=11456617

this would be good for the tax.
NZD/USD should have some spikes next week.
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Trade Weighted Index....defying gravity?



Cheers, Motu

PS Getting mighty chilly weather wise down here....

Liked the way it dropped towards 0.7100 mark, which was exactly the way anticipated...

Expecting a rise towards .75 by next 2 weeks with a stop at .73.

NZDUSD is likely to extend declines towards 0.7080 while an upside break of 0.7155 may pullback the pair towards 0.7270 region.

:nerd:

First quota-free month sees milk supplies rise 14%
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news...plies-rise-14/

read the last two sentences of the whole document.

for update only,


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NZ terms of trade rise 1.5pc in first quarter as imported petrol prices slump
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/ne...ectid=11458427
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As my health is not good, I need to take a break.
See you tomorrow.

Post more charts and more ideas on this forum NZD/USD.

Have a nice day!

Even if the NZDUSD reversed from its 0.7080 horizontal support, descending trend-channel continue supporting downtrend.

very strong zone .i think it will consolidating this zone then up

Aggressive traders would initiate fresh short-positions in NZDUSD....
Drop below 0.7100 mark would open room for continuing downward trajectory towards 0.7030-20 support area...