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Daily green/red candle

  • #881
  • May 31, 2015 6:06am May 31, 2015 6:06am
Hi dimdel;

What would you do in the following situation? (See chart below)

The only way, I can see, to get back into this Bullish Move is by looking at Candle Formation.

I guess, it comes down to Trading Experience and Knowledge as to wether you would enter another Bullish Trade based on Candle Formation or wait for the opposite Red Candle to take a Short trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 31st May 15 AUD:JPY D1 Chart.png Size: 82 KB
  • #882
  • May 31, 2015 7:10am May 31, 2015 7:10am
Quoting stevepatt
Hi dimdel; What would you do in the following situation? (See chart below) The only way, I can see, to get back into this Bullish Move is by looking at Candle Formation. I guess, it comes down to Trading Experience and Knowledge as to wether you would enter another Bullish Trade based on Candle Formation or wait for the opposite Red Candle to take a Short trade. {image}
hi steve
--if i put a order then i let it go to TP or SL or BE or BE+some pips
i dont change the order
--i take all new signal ( with new color candle ) and
i dont look the previus open order if i win or i lose

--if the long order close to BE and the price move up, i wait for short signal
i cant find the way to reenter to the same direction safe,
of caurse as i see you can reenter to the same direction with same rules but need something more to support the trade ( i am searching)
maybe you can give some ideas

so i put pending order at any new color
  • #883
  • May 31, 2015 7:12am May 31, 2015 7:12am
Quoting stevepatt
Hi dimdel; What would you do in the following situation? (See chart below) The only way, I can see, to get back into this Bullish Move is by looking at Candle Formation. I guess, it comes down to Trading Experience and Knowledge as to wether you would enter another Bullish Trade based on Candle Formation or wait for the opposite Red Candle to take a Short trade. {image}

good post. Experience is often king. but lets share something valuable based on experience if we can..... my 2 cents

1. at the very least look at the 4 hour chart and look if lower high or higher low... 123 reversal pattern or whatever confirming factors there are.....reversals should show their hand... someone once suggested to put all the bad failed/bad trades in a folder and all the good trades into a separate folder..now we might look at them all on a lower timeframe chart i.e. a 4 hour chart or a 1 hour chart. see if anything can be seen that is repeatable, that is price showing its hand to reverse... i'm bad at that too so don't be complaining about it. so lower timeframe confirms or additional criteria...perhaps check out fxincognito and compare what they are doing...

2. test using only the setups that had at least 3 candles in a row the same color and THEN an opposite color candle..... i remember a thread a long time ago where the author was using 6 in a row then an opposite color candle.... # of candles in a row is just something to test...an ea should be able to test something like that easily i would think....
basically once has to narrow down exactly what setup one is looking for in order to improve win rate and profitability

3. you can wait for a pullback of 50% then get in only after that...

4. stop and reverse the failed/bad ones.

if one wants a set and forget one needs to be specific on what exactly the criteria is. i've just only shared some thoughts in an effort to help e1 so please take my post as only that... humble thoughts... i'm only attempting to add thoughts that may improve the thread and its ideas so please advise if there is any value or not....

Thanks
  • #884
  • May 31, 2015 7:25am May 31, 2015 7:25am
your thoughts ALL OF YOU
in anycase only can help
all of us we need the second oppinion
1--anyone who wants to add is welcome
2--anyone who wants to change is welcome but is not understandable
3--Anyone who wants to comfuse the thread have some other purpose

till now only the case 1 i have seen
thanks
  • #885
  • May 31, 2015 7:47am May 31, 2015 7:47am
I've done a random Back Test on AUD/JPY manually for the last 3 months.

It depends on your start date as to the Trades you will get I've started from the 05/02/15 up to the present time.

The Price Action from the 05/02/15 to the 25/03/15 will really Mess with your Head unless you are aware of what to expect from this method.

Unless you have an effective filter to filter this type of Price Action out, every Trade setup needs to be taken.

You should find that by Trading a Basket of different pairs this type of event will repair it's self in time.

So what does this mean for this method?

It means Money Management, as dimdel has been stating, is what will make or break this method.

To Trade effectively you need to be prepared for a worse case scenario, would you be prepared if 75% of the pairs you Traded turned out results like I was getting from 05/02/15 to the 25/03/15? That's eight losing, five Break Even and NO WINNING Trades.

I've not checked all the Majors but I would expect all of them to have this type of Price Action sooner or later. So it's no good just dropping a pair that isn't performing as expected as I have said it's being prepared for ALL the pairs you Trade to be performing badly at the same time and being prepared MENTALLY and FINANCIALLY for that scenario.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 31st May 15 AUD:JPY D1 Chart.png Size: 116 KB
  • #886
  • May 31, 2015 7:59am May 31, 2015 7:59am
Quoting stevepatt
I've done a random Back Test on AUD/JPY manually for the last 3 months. It depends on your start date as to the Trades you will get I've started from the 05/02/15 up to the present time. The Price Action from the 05/02/15 to the 25/03/15 will really Mess with your Head unless you are aware of what to expect from this method. Unless you have an effective filter to filter this type of Price Action out, every Trade setup needs to be taken. You should find that by Trading a Basket of different pairs this type of event will repair it's self in time....

yep but if you only took the ones that had 3 ducks in a row then a change in color you had all wins and break evens.... please correct me if i'm wrong...
  • #887
  • May 31, 2015 8:19am May 31, 2015 8:19am
Quoting stevepatt
I've done a random Back Test on AUD/JPY manually for the last 3 months. It depends on your start date as to the Trades you will get I've started from the 05/02/15 up to the present time. The Price Action from the 05/02/15 to the 25/03/15 will really Mess with your Head unless you are aware of what to expect from this method. Unless you have an effective filter to filter this type of Price Action out, every Trade setup needs to be taken. You should find that by Trading a Basket of different pairs this type of event will repair it's self in time....

i think something wrong steve

you see BE =0 pips
i see some pips


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy.png Size: 41 KB
  • #888
  • May 31, 2015 8:41am May 31, 2015 8:41am
Quoting dimdel
{quote} hi voodoo? black magic? i will try to use it , can you help me with what the primary material use? thanks
Thanks for the humor.

I was using the word voodoo to emphasize the idea that I just don't trade robotically with any so called method, system. I can use an EA for that and in most cases I will lose money. EAs can make money but they have a personality all there own and it takes time and experience to use them profitably. If there was a profitable trading method that was truly robotic then an EA would be all you need.

So I use all the accumulated knowledge that I have to make a trading decision (voodoo)--- Stevepatt hit on some of the reasons I like Dimdels method.

Dimdel- Yes! I can help with the primary material to learn your own voodoo -- there is plenty of voodoo to learn right here at FF.
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #889
  • May 31, 2015 9:53am May 31, 2015 9:53am
You can see, already, that it boils down to how you interpret price action. And, as you can also see,
it varies from one person to the next. That's cool, because a trader has to be comfortable with his
trading criteria.

Once I've decided that a trade has met my requirements, I'm primarily looking for strong price action,
or momentum, on the primary entry candle. If I don't see it, I'm not interested in waiting around for two
or three days to see where the trade is going.

That's how I do it, but that doesn't necessarily mean that's how you should do it.

Chicago
  • #890
  • Edited 10:31am May 31, 2015 10:13am | Edited 10:31am
FWIW, this is exactly what I am trying to avoid by using volume and relative momentum from a strength meter. Throughout the year, most pairs will exhibit a tight period of consolidation and choppy ranges. when that is occurring, for instance in AUD/JPY,or even USD JPY for most of this year, I will not trade it. The strength meter should show the pair as flat on a relative basis. By focusing my trades on paired that are moving (while keeping an eye on key S/R levels) other JPY and AUD pairs may show excellent opportunities, I hope to maximize where I am focusing my trades. I should be in on a lot of trend resumption after pullbacks on strong trends with momentum. The forward test begins this week.

I do have a question though. As to the start of the week.....Do you place trades at the beginning of today's session in Asia when spreads are wide, wait for Tokyo to open, or look for pendings before European open?




Quoting stevepatt
I've done a random Back Test on AUD/JPY manually for the last 3 months. It depends on your start date as to the Trades you will get I've started from the 05/02/15 up to the present time. The Price Action from the 05/02/15 to the 25/03/15 will really Mess with your Head unless you are aware of what to expect from this method. Unless you have an effective filter to filter this type of Price Action out, every Trade setup needs to be taken. You should find that by Trading a Basket of different pairs this type of event will repair it's self in time....
  • #891
  • Edited 12:03pm May 31, 2015 10:34am | Edited 12:03pm
Quoting dimdel
{quote} i think something wrong steve you see BE =0 pips i see some pips {image}

Hi dimdel;

I thought you moved your Stop Loss to Break Even after the Trade reached 1.4 Fibo Level? After that you allowed the Trade to hit the SL or Take Profit.

For ease of back testing I move to BE only and then allow the Trade to hit TP or BE.

I know I might have made some mistakes in my back testing but you get the point. We have to be prepared for a sustained losing run on all pairs Traded.

It pays to be MENTALLY and FINANCIALLY prepared for the worst case scenario before starting to Trade a Method.

If Trading Ten Pairs and each sustain Six Losses in a row and Risking 0.5% on each Trade that would mean a 30% Draw Down.

Unfortunately without an EA, to run back tests, there is no, easy, way of ascertaining the longest losing streak of each pair.

I'm not trying to put anyone off Trading this Method but, for me, once I can see the merits, of a Method, I want to have a good idea of the worst case scenario once I'm Trading it.
  • #892
  • Edited 11:30am May 31, 2015 10:51am | Edited 11:30am
Quoting panamamike
FWIW, this is exactly what I am trying to avoid by using volume and relative momentum from a strength meter. Throughout the year, most pairs will exhibit a tight period of consolidation and choppy ranges. when that is occurring, for instance in AUD/JPY,or even USD JPY for most of this year, I will not trade it. The strength meter should show the pair as flat on a relative basis. By focusing my trades on paired that are moving (while keeping an eye on key S/R levels) other JPY and AUD pairs may show excellent opportunities, I hope to maximize where...

Hi panamamike;

I agree completely with trying to avoid these periods of consolidation but I want to find a filter that is as simple as dagoods suggests, in this Post 882, other wise there could be too much discretion involved in taking a Trade.

I Trade using GKFX which is a Spread betting Platform and has fixed Spreads.

I place my Trades as soon as a New Day starts I'm on BST +2 hours so I have no Weekend Candle which is, I think, important for this method.

Which Strength Meter do you use?
  • #893
  • May 31, 2015 2:56pm May 31, 2015 2:56pm
EA with some of the fixes:
1. Per day only single order is processed on each pair
2. SellStop and BuyStop is expired at end of that day, if not yet triggered
3. TP level can be changed 100,150,200,300


Currently, trailing is implemented but could not test as there are no such trades right now in my account. So if getting issues then simply disable the trailing option to avoid any error. I will be testing these features from today.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Dimdel_Daily_Candle.zip   107 KB | 622 downloads
  • #894
  • May 31, 2015 3:41pm May 31, 2015 3:41pm
Quoting AbhijetPandi
EA with some of the fixes: 1. Per day only single order is processed on each pair 2. SellStop and BuyStop is expired at end of that day, if not yet triggered 3. TP level can be changed 100,150,200,300 Currently, trailing is implemented but could not test as there are no such trades right now in my account. So if getting issues then simply disable the trailing option to avoid any error. I will be testing these features from today. {file}

Hi AbhijetPandi;

Firstly, thank you for your efforts in writing an EA for this method.

I'm sure your waiting for the BUT I can't get it to take any Trades the chart shows the settings I'm using.

Any help would be appreciated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 31st may 15 USD:CAD D1 Chart.png Size: 142 KB
  • #895
  • May 31, 2015 4:45pm May 31, 2015 4:45pm
Here is an example of the setups I am trying to avoid and how I am attempting to accomplish that. This is just an example from today's daily color change list.

AUDCAD right ow says to set a pending buy. I will pass on setting it. Why?

The main INDI I look at is the Gadi_Currencies V 3.0 DIFF. You can plot all the currencies which I do on a separate screen, but on these charts I just show the current pair and the the thick line is the differential. The differential line is pointing down, and the Gadi_OBV is flat. I will NEVER take a trade if these two are not pointing in the direction of the trade. Tick volume is red and below 0 (indicating trend down). Hence, for this pair I will not place a pending buy, as to me it is a low probability trade. If it works out for those that do, that is great. If I miss out on some trades....no problem. I will show some setups as this week goes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-05-31 16_31_02-AUDCAD,Daily red green.png Size: 90 KB
  • #896
  • Edited 6:28pm May 31, 2015 5:32pm | Edited 6:28pm
Thank you very much Mr AbhijetPandi.
Your EA is perfect.
I have no words to show you my satisfaction.

(I think that the only thing to become perfect for this strategy is that the EA must give second order, on each pair, if the second order belongs to an other day. I think that the EA does not give second trade in a pair even if there is a second order a few days ago. This strategy says that if there is a new signal of a new order, of an other day, then we take the new signal/order and trading it, even if there is already an open trade in this pair.)
.....but whatever I say, You made this super good EA, and thank you very much !!!!!
  • #897
  • May 31, 2015 8:29pm May 31, 2015 8:29pm
Quoting panamamike
Here is an example of the setups I am trying to avoid and how I am attempting to accomplish that. This is just an example from today's daily color change list. AUDCAD right ow says to set a pending buy. I will pass on setting it. Why? The main INDI I look at is the Gadi_Currencies V 3.0 DIFF. You can plot all the currencies which I do on a separate screen, but on these charts I just show the current pair and the the thick line is the differential. The differential line is pointing down, and the Gadi_OBV is flat. I will NEVER take a trade if these...
I was so hoping
there would be no indicators to infiltrate this simple but very profitable method.
  • #898
  • May 31, 2015 11:59pm May 31, 2015 11:59pm
Hello Dimdel. Really impressive system. Have a question. Althogh I have not actually entered a trade and it is theoretical question only.

In the AUDCAD daily chart we see a sell signal (Red) and enter as per the strategy a Short sell order which gets activated the next day.

But next day candle closes green. Our sell order still active. Do we close it manually or wait for S/L to be triggered?

DD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 84 KB
  • #899
  • Jun 1, 2015 12:09am Jun 1, 2015 12:09am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi AbhijetPandi; Firstly, thank you for your efforts in writing an EA for this method. I'm sure your waiting for the BUT I can't get it to take any Trades the chart shows the settings I'm using. Any help would be appreciated. {image}
Yes, I think for testing strategy, the code needs to be written in some different function OnTest() somthing. I will provide another EA which should support testing also. Right now, i am also unable to test as no trades are generated in the MT4 testing.
  • #900
  • Jun 1, 2015 12:45am Jun 1, 2015 12:45am
Quoting Dildubai
Hello Dimdel. Really impressive system. Have a question. Althogh I have not actually entered a trade and it is theoretical question only. In the AUDCAD daily chart we see a sell signal (Red) and enter as per the strategy a Short sell order which gets activated the next day. But next day candle closes green. Our sell order still active. Do we close it manually or wait for S/L to be triggered? DD {image}

Hi Dildubai;

As, I understand dimdel's rules you would keep the Short Trade Open and also Hedge with a Long Trade.

If I'm mistaken I'm sure dim del will correct me.
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